Today's games(2) - Wed. 1/3

[stever20]

Xavier has a LOT more wiggle room due to how well they did in OOC play. Xavier is better off at 10-8 than Creighton is at 12-6- and it's not even close.

This is all typical in a vacuum nonsense. The games need to be played before definitive statements can be made. Period. Move on and relax and let the games play out. If X goes 10-8 and loses to both G'town and DePaul and loses twice to SHU, Nova and CU, and finishes tied for 5th, you can't give them better than a 6/7 seed IMO. If CU conversely wins 12, beating X twice, beating Butler, Nova and SHU, and finishes 2nd in conference, show me the committee that will have them seeded behind X. I don't care what you're RPI calculator tells you.

You use these hypothetical records but we have no idea who's going to beat who, until it happens and the seeding and RPI shift accordingly. Bottom line is if Creighton beats the better teams in front of them and finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd in this really strong league, where scheduling is perfectly even, they are going to be a Top 4-5 seed. Let's talk about OOC. X's signature win OOC is at home vs. Cinn., who has an RPI of 61 and @ No. Iowa (85). CU beat UCLA (38) on a neutral floor and @ N'western (91). This is not to say that X has not challenged itself OOC, it has, and it only lost once. It's not their fault Wiscy is down this year but even that away win lost a lot of luster. But CU has the better top OOC win and it was away from home, which I know both are so important to you.

You can't totally use current RPI's by any stretch..... I mean even look at difference between yesterday and today-
Cincy- now has RPI of 42(up 19 from yesterday)
UCLA- now has RPI of 53(down 15 from yesterday)
So no, Creighton doesn't have the better top OOC win now. And end of the year, there's almost no chance that it will. And that still doesn't excuse Creighton from scheduling all the dregs they did. 6 Tier 4 home games vs only 3 for Xavier(not to mention a D2 team for Creighton).

I also just look right now at their profiles with just the current RPI- but if you look at it with the projected RPI numbers-
avg RPI win for Xavier so far- 124.9
avg RPI win for Crieghton so far- 185.6

I'd go so far to say that the only way that Creighton at 12-6 could finish with a better seed than Xavier at 10-8 would be if they sweep them head to head. THAT is why Creighton would be seeded higher.

Your OOC record does mean a lot. If it didn't why does looking at projected OOC numbers do we find
Villanova 50
Xavier 26
Seton Hall 47
Butler 64
St John's 20
Providence 79

For whatever reason, McDermott doesn't like to schedule tough OOC. It's already cost him 1 NCAA bid in the big east 2 years ago. 1st year they had a 45 OOC SOS. next 3 years- 189,302,221. This year right now, it's 235.

[sju88grad]

Creighton's projected schedule strength, come seasons end: 44

Wichiturd's projected schedule strength: 38

That gap will close (and likely disappear entirely if CU advances) once the conference tournament starts, because the Shockers will open with some ass clown and CU will get a 20 win team. Then, our 2 loss non-con (with a UCLA and Nebraska win) is about the same at the top as their Baylor/Okie St win. And, we have a St John's win, they have a Marquette win.


In case you can't tell, this is the part where you say that our two situations are similar. They will benefit by having played better goofs than our 300+ RPI cupcakes, which will be offset by not being forced to ingest South Florida and East Carolina home games. Say it: if we are in trouble then so are they.

Right now, top 9 teams in the AAC are projected to be top 120 RPI. Very possible it could be a Temple team in the top 75. Hardly a RPI killer.

As far as them seeing USF and ECU- they play both of those teams only once. Along with Memphis and Tulane. Otherwise known as the 4 projected worst AAC teams.

And I would say Wichita has a similar curve to what Creighton has. But where they're not likely at all to have only 10 conference wins, it's very easy to see Creighton finishing at only 10-8 or 11-7. Looking at RPI Forecast- Wichita's most likely conference record is 14-4- producing a 12.5 RPI. Creighton's most likely conference record is 11-7- producing a 30.9 RPI.

Stever, do you even LIKE college basketball?!?!? Every freaking post I read from you is about statistics and what may happen in the future if this team beats that team or how the tier system or wins and losses will impact seeding and whether teams will get into the tournament. I find that stuff interesting from about the end of February until Selection Sunday. In the meantime, I’m enjoying great basketball games and some pretty amazing individual players. Good lord, put down the calculator and just relax.

[gtmoBlue]

Isn't the goal to 1) win the conference 2) win the BET 3) Make the dance and earn some credits.

Xavier is in a better position due to RPI/SOS. This is a nonsensical argument...although Most Steverrrr arguments are.
Play the games, make the dance, do the BE proud. Be shoulds get 6 bids, maybe more.

[stever20]

Stever, do you even LIKE college basketball?!?!? Every freaking post I read from you is about statistics and what may happen in the future if this team beats that team or how the tier system or wins and losses will impact seeding and whether teams will get into the tournament. I find that stuff interesting from about the end of February until Selection Sunday. In the meantime, I’m enjoying great basketball games and some pretty amazing individual players. Good lord, put down the calculator and just relax.

I totally love college basketball. I'm just a numbers type of guy. It's how I've always been. But I do love watching the games. It always amazes me in college basketball how you have something like on Wednesday night where the late 3 by Creighton just bounced up and could easily have missed, but fell in there at the end. And yes, how that bounce can totally change the fates of 2 teams. Or the last second shots like last night with Cincy pulling it out vs Temple. Don't get to watch as much as before only because I would before have a lot more time but now that I've got more teams to coach- don't get to see as much on weekends in particular. But I love watching the games when I can- and get into the tourney when season is over for me- and I love watching all those games.

[Omahanian]

[quote="sju88grad"

Stever, do you even LIKE college basketball?!?!? Every freaking post I read from you is about statistics and what may happen in the future if this team beats that team or how the tier system or wins and losses will impact seeding and whether teams will get into the tournament. I find that stuff interesting from about the end of February until Selection Sunday. In the meantime, I’m enjoying great basketball games and some pretty amazing individual players. Good lord, put down the calculator and just relax.[/quote]

I think you hit the nail on the head here. The game of stats is obviously way more important and interesting to stever than the ball games.

[Burrito]

Stever is out of control with his endless postings about Bracketology. Once in a while is fine.

[billyjack]

On the topic of the Marquette-Providence game, it's been 36 hours and i still feel physically ill thinking back to the Friars loss. I have some thoughts on the game and how we got hosed out of winning a critical critical game, if you guys are interested, and it will change the topic from Bracketology nonsense.

Let me know.

[gosports1]

I'm interested billy