The Case for Dayton

[ohiohsbball]

You seem like you're a reasonable poster, except for when you tell people their comments are stupid, when you otherwise have no idea of whether or not they're telling the truth. Just so you know, I go up to Cincinnati for one game per year (from Florida) and I sit in the President's suite when I do that. You might say I have access, which is what you were questioning earlier. My access goes beyond that, but I'm not going to comment on that. Why do I bring that up now? Because of some of the comments you've made here. Am I going to directly refute some of what you've written here? No, I'm not. Doing so may otherwise make public information or comments that were never intended to see the light of day.

I will share this much with you. You are correct to note that the leadership of the two universities enjoy a good relationship. Beyond that, your first sentence under #7 may or may not translate to Xavier having the same disposition towards UD in the near future as it did when it saved UD"s behind by getting it into the A10 in the mid-90's. Of course, that assumes X would have to have a disposition involving UD and expansion at all, either in the near term or ever.

I can't imagine anyone doubts the intensity of the rivalry between Xavier and UD, especially those who are honest with themselves and familiar with it. But you are coming at this from the vantage point of a big basketball fan living in Ohio. If expansion hits the agenda for a President's meeting and various schools are considered and UD is one of those schools, this one game may make someone's Ben Franklin list, but it isn't going to be high on it or heavily weighted for decisioning purposes within that group. Frankly, most fans of the C7 schools simply don't care about this, and certainly care much, much more about their own schools settling into their own nice, solid competitive match-ups moving forward.

Are the Cincinnati and Dayton television markets one and the same? No, of course not. Let's go to the Bible: http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/public%20factsheets/tv/nielsen-2012-local-DMA-TV-penetration.pdf. Does that benefit Dayton in this case? Absolutely not, because it's market isn't regarded as being strategic to the conference. If you still have the list up, take a gander at St. Louis' position on it, and then consider that it also pulls in a new state. Do we now get the remarks about "no one watches SLU in SL"? Does anyone truly believe Fox isn't considering the down stream positioning of the brand and is otherwise inclined to make decisions solely on current data? Nope, the television markets between Cincinnati and Dayton are just that: marketS. But they're too close and Dayton's market isn't meaningful enough, especially considering the opportunity to grab St. Louis, absent a downstream opportunity to grab something that isn't even on the radar screen yet, and otherwise consider another eastern market for conference balance.

Xavier isn't exactly restricting itself to recruiting in Southern Ohio, so it doesn't want that area to itself, per se; it wants its shot at the best talent that comes from that area, but that is the extent of that. X recruits nationally now, and continues to build success doing so.

I'm not sure what level of relevancy your #6 achieves in all this. Ohio State and UM are hyper-established "BCS" schools that aren't going anywhere with respect to conference affiliation. Same goes for Chapel Hill and Duke. Beyond that, I'm not sure how you define "as of late" when it comes to Xavier's standing in the series. The facts are the facts.

The C7 made a brave, solid decision to take themselves back to their roots. They decided they needed to add schools. Given the Fox deal and the MSG deal, they had to get that right. Xavier, Creighton and Butler became immediately obvious to them. No other program achieved that status. A conference move was available. Xavier took it, along with Butler, as far as the A10 was concerned. Creighton took it from the MVC. The reasons were obvious. These programs and schools were positioned to make the moves because of their resumes and go-forward potential and sustainability. Dayton does not have the resume, it just doesn't. It has resources and fan support, but a terrible track record, as compared to what the Big East expects to accomplish in the long run. Beyond that, and this is the bottom-line and I'm not trying to be mean about it, Dayton's biggest problem is that it is in Dayton - -it's too close to Xavier (no, this isn't about comparing anything to the Research Triangle) and its television market is a BIG problem.[/quote]


I agree with a lot of what you said and appreciate that you think I am a reasonable poster. Just want to clarify something real quick; when I said "stupid" I meant comments on here that don't make any sense. For example, when Xavier posters make comments like some of the posts by Dayton fans on message boards is why Dayton is not getting in the Big East or when Xavier played NC State at UD Xavier admin would have a close eye on how UD fans act toward Xavier. Stuff like that is what is completely ridiculous. Any one of my favorites was when a Xavier posted that the three students in the arena during Xavier's practice is a reason the X admin won't sign off on UD as a BE member. Those are the kinds of things I was referring to. A lot of Xavier people on here I think make valid points without completely bashing UD or the A10. With the exception of the PMthor poster, who I don't even read his posts anymore, there are a lot of good points.

As far as the TV market goes, I'm not a huge expert on any of those analysis or rankings. All I know is every study I have seen shows Dayton as being one of the top basketball markets for TV viewership. I don't remember the numbers but that is part of the reason FSOhio is trying to get more Dayton games on the air next year is because of the number of people that watched the handful of games they aired at Dayton. I also knows that ESPN annually releases numbers of where the most people watch their college basketball games and Dayton has been in the top half every year. Does that include the Xavier market? I have no idea.

We agree on the two presidents having a close relationship. I don't know about the process of Dayton getting into the A10 in the mid 1990; if Xavier was involved or not to me right now is irrelevant almost 20 years later. I don't follow Dayton's program close enough to know. My point was they were both in a solid conference for a long time and did quite well. I don't see how Dayton ever held Xavier back. Yes, recently Xavier has been much better but it's not like a loss to Dayton killed Xavier RPI or NCAA tourney hopes. Normally beating Dayton would be a resume builder, not a "bad loss"; with that in mind, why would that rivalry end? While it is no secret Dayton typically struggles in the A10, Dayton does have a great track record against BCS schools; with those wins in the OOC, I would think they would help conference RPI. Without any inside information, my guess is that eventually they will play again, Big East or not. I had a conversation with Dr. Curran not too long ago, and of course he played his cards close to the vest not sharing anything.

Enjoy reading your posts, it sounds like you really know what you are talking about. Like I've said not really a Dayton fan, but I'm such a homer when it comes to local schools. I always rooted for Xavier to make the A10 look good and I pull for them now. That is why I would like to see Dayton in the BE to play close schools like Xavier and Butler yearly and maybe even Cincinnati (although I will admit, I wasn't too upset when Harvard beat UC yesterday)!

[BEX]

blah...blah....blah...Dayton...blah, blah,blah...

[Bill Marsh]

You seem like you're a reasonable poster, except for when you tell people their comments are stupid, when you otherwise have no idea of whether or not they're telling the truth. Just so you know, I go up to Cincinnati for one game per year (from Florida) and I sit in the President's suite when I do that. You might say I have access, which is what you were questioning earlier. My access goes beyond that, but I'm not going to comment on that. Why do I bring that up now? Because of some of the comments you've made here. Am I going to directly refute some of what you've written here? No, I'm not. Doing so may otherwise make public information or comments that were never intended to see the light of day.

I will share this much with you. You are correct to note that the leadership of the two universities enjoy a good relationship. Beyond that, your first sentence under #7 may or may not translate to Xavier having the same disposition towards UD in the near future as it did when it saved UD"s behind by getting it into the A10 in the mid-90's. Of course, that assumes X would have to have a disposition involving UD and expansion at all, either in the near term or ever.

I can't imagine anyone doubts the intensity of the rivalry between Xavier and UD, especially those who are honest with themselves and familiar with it. But you are coming at this from the vantage point of a big basketball fan living in Ohio. If expansion hits the agenda for a President's meeting and various schools are considered and UD is one of those schools, this one game may make someone's Ben Franklin list, but it isn't going to be high on it or heavily weighted for decisioning purposes within that group. Frankly, most fans of the C7 schools simply don't care about this, and certainly care much, much more about their own schools settling into their own nice, solid competitive match-ups moving forward.

Are the Cincinnati and Dayton television markets one and the same? No, of course not. Let's go to the Bible: http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/public%20factsheets/tv/nielsen-2012-local-DMA-TV-penetration.pdf. Does that benefit Dayton in this case? Absolutely not, because it's market isn't regarded as being strategic to the conference. If you still have the list up, take a gander at St. Louis' position on it, and then consider that it also pulls in a new state. Do we now get the remarks about "no one watches SLU in SL"? Does anyone truly believe Fox isn't considering the down stream positioning of the brand and is otherwise inclined to make decisions solely on current data? Nope, the television markets between Cincinnati and Dayton are just that: marketS. But they're too close and Dayton's market isn't meaningful enough, especially considering the opportunity to grab St. Louis, absent a downstream opportunity to grab something that isn't even on the radar screen yet, and otherwise consider another eastern market for conference balance.

Xavier isn't exactly restricting itself to recruiting in Southern Ohio, so it doesn't want that area to itself, per se; it wants its shot at the best talent that comes from that area, but that is the extent of that. X recruits nationally now, and continues to build success doing so.

I'm not sure what level of relevancy your #6 achieves in all this. Ohio State and UM are hyper-established "BCS" schools that aren't going anywhere with respect to conference affiliation. Same goes for Chapel Hill and Duke. Beyond that, I'm not sure how you define "as of late" when it comes to Xavier's standing in the series. The facts are the facts.

The C7 made a brave, solid decision to take themselves back to their roots. They decided they needed to add schools. Given the Fox deal and the MSG deal, they had to get that right. Xavier, Creighton and Butler became immediately obvious to them. No other program achieved that status. A conference move was available. Xavier took it, along with Butler, as far as the A10 was concerned. Creighton took it from the MVC. The reasons were obvious. These programs and schools were positioned to make the moves because of their resumes and go-forward potential and sustainability. Dayton does not have the resume, it just doesn't. It has resources and fan support, but a terrible track record, as compared to what the Big East expects to accomplish in the long run. Beyond that, and this is the bottom-line and I'm not trying to be mean about it, Dayton's biggest problem is that it is in Dayton - -it's too close to Xavier (no, this isn't about comparing anything to the Research Triangle) and its television market is a BIG problem.

XU Dash, given your access to the Xavier president, do you have any insights or even hunches about which way the Big East will eventually move with its expansion plans? What factors do you think will play into their decision? Where will fox factor in?

I realize that you might not know any more that the rest of us and/or might not be in a position to comment on what you know, but just thought I'd take a stab at it.

[Xudash]

You seem like you're a reasonable poster, except for when you tell people their comments are stupid, when you otherwise have no idea of whether or not they're telling the truth. Just so you know, I go up to Cincinnati for one game per year (from Florida) and I sit in the President's suite when I do that. You might say I have access, which is what you were questioning earlier. My access goes beyond that, but I'm not going to comment on that. Why do I bring that up now? Because of some of the comments you've made here. Am I going to directly refute some of what you've written here? No, I'm not. Doing so may otherwise make public information or comments that were never intended to see the light of day.

I will share this much with you. You are correct to note that the leadership of the two universities enjoy a good relationship. Beyond that, your first sentence under #7 may or may not translate to Xavier having the same disposition towards UD in the near future as it did when it saved UD"s behind by getting it into the A10 in the mid-90's. Of course, that assumes X would have to have a disposition involving UD and expansion at all, either in the near term or ever.

I can't imagine anyone doubts the intensity of the rivalry between Xavier and UD, especially those who are honest with themselves and familiar with it. But you are coming at this from the vantage point of a big basketball fan living in Ohio. If expansion hits the agenda for a President's meeting and various schools are considered and UD is one of those schools, this one game may make someone's Ben Franklin list, but it isn't going to be high on it or heavily weighted for decisioning purposes within that group. Frankly, most fans of the C7 schools simply don't care about this, and certainly care much, much more about their own schools settling into their own nice, solid competitive match-ups moving forward.

Are the Cincinnati and Dayton television markets one and the same? No, of course not. Let's go to the Bible: http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/us/en/public%20factsheets/tv/nielsen-2012-local-DMA-TV-penetration.pdf. Does that benefit Dayton in this case? Absolutely not, because it's market isn't regarded as being strategic to the conference. If you still have the list up, take a gander at St. Louis' position on it, and then consider that it also pulls in a new state. Do we now get the remarks about "no one watches SLU in SL"? Does anyone truly believe Fox isn't considering the down stream positioning of the brand and is otherwise inclined to make decisions solely on current data? Nope, the television markets between Cincinnati and Dayton are just that: marketS. But they're too close and Dayton's market isn't meaningful enough, especially considering the opportunity to grab St. Louis, absent a downstream opportunity to grab something that isn't even on the radar screen yet, and otherwise consider another eastern market for conference balance.

Xavier isn't exactly restricting itself to recruiting in Southern Ohio, so it doesn't want that area to itself, per se; it wants its shot at the best talent that comes from that area, but that is the extent of that. X recruits nationally now, and continues to build success doing so.

I'm not sure what level of relevancy your #6 achieves in all this. Ohio State and UM are hyper-established "BCS" schools that aren't going anywhere with respect to conference affiliation. Same goes for Chapel Hill and Duke. Beyond that, I'm not sure how you define "as of late" when it comes to Xavier's standing in the series. The facts are the facts.

The C7 made a brave, solid decision to take themselves back to their roots. They decided they needed to add schools. Given the Fox deal and the MSG deal, they had to get that right. Xavier, Creighton and Butler became immediately obvious to them. No other program achieved that status. A conference move was available. Xavier took it, along with Butler, as far as the A10 was concerned. Creighton took it from the MVC. The reasons were obvious. These programs and schools were positioned to make the moves because of their resumes and go-forward potential and sustainability. Dayton does not have the resume, it just doesn't. It has resources and fan support, but a terrible track record, as compared to what the Big East expects to accomplish in the long run. Beyond that, and this is the bottom-line and I'm not trying to be mean about it, Dayton's biggest problem is that it is in Dayton - -it's too close to Xavier (no, this isn't about comparing anything to the Research Triangle) and its television market is a BIG problem.

XU Dash, given your access to the Xavier president, do you have any insights or even hunches about which way the Big East will eventually move with its expansion plans? What factors do you think will play into their decision? Where will fox factor in?

I realize that you might not know any more that the rest of us and/or might not be in a position to comment on what you know, but just thought I'd take a stab at it.

Bill, belatedly, thank you for your kind comment from a prior post. I enjoy reading your posts as well.

I'm not privy to any major decision or discussion that is going on about any of this at present.

What I've been told is consistent with what the President's and Ackerman have already stated publicly. In other words, I wouldn't spend too much time sitting around this summer expecting expansion announcements. The Big East Presidents, with the partners and management team they have behind them, know they are positioned for long-term success. It's that simple. No amount of banter about bids versus another conference, especially as that pertains to the conference's inaugural season is going to change that. Besides, notwithstanding Xavier's terrible performance earlier this week, the conference did manage to receive 4 bids. It really doesn't matter at this point how the conference got to that: it is FACT that the conference received 4 bids, while also placing 2 additional teams in the NIT. I presume the conference tournament was deemed successful. Beyond that, they all understand that there are certain other programs that want to come in our direction, while there isn't one program in this conference that would consider going elsewhere based on the current lay of the land. They are simply under no pressure to change from their original vision at this time.

The President's own the decision regarding expansion. Yes, Fox pays the bills, so to speak, but any decision having to do with changing the composition of the conference will come from the Presidents. Will they consult with Fox should they decide to consider it and begin to evaluate candidates? Of course they will. They will want to have a thorough understanding of market sizes, dynamics and the ability to grow a viewership base over time as the brand strengthens. At that point, assuming it occurs at all, you can imagine a meeting in a nice conference room in NYC with Fox executives, school AD's and Ackermans' staff sitting around working through their "draft." Their recommendations would then be presented to the Presidents for their decision.

What factors do I believe will play into their decision regarding expansion? My OPINION is that many factors will play into it. First of all, the Big East television contract is a portfolio asset for Fox; it's one of a number of Fox properties. Fox will continue to obtain other properties in order to build and strengthen its sports channels. Assuming the U.S. telecommunications infrastructure holds up to a reasonable degree (business model) - - cable television systems collecting subscriber fees, mainly - - Fox is positioned to create a long-term nightmare for ESPN. I'm not suggesting it can kill ESPN; I'm suggesting that "nightmare" can be defined as diminishing a dominate position to a material degree. I have to go back to the notion that these guys think with a long lense, not as many fans do when they come to conclusions based upon some immediate, not necessarily sustainable outcome. So, at the foundation, if things are tracking for Fox overall and assuming ratings trend up over time, as I expect they will, while understanding that we are dealing with collegiate basketball game inventory ratings here, there will be an overall sense of stability around our rather remarkable television agreement. On that note, I think there are few times in life where "being at the right place at the right time" will ever be exceeded by this deal.

A lot of the rest of it for me has to do with each school's brand maintaining or growing in stature to contribute to that success. I see Georgetown as a national brand. I see Villanova as a national brand. I see Marquette that way. What we're all going to want to see is St. John's reestablishing its glory days, as well as DePaul (especially once its facility comes online) getting its act back together. It's about success in each of our media markets, IMO, and having success in NY and Chicago can only help. Providence and Seton Hall have solid coaches and breathing room now. I'm confident that Xavier is going to add to this conference greatly. I have my Muskie glasses on here, but the program is so well positioned for success that I doubt it will derail from here. I think Creighton will be magnificent for this conference long-term, and I believe Butler will work through what I chalk up to growing pains - - coming from the Horizon through the A10 to this in two years is a lot to navigate.

Sorry for the long post. Though the overall situation is fluid to a degree, I think it's safe to take the Presidents at their word. They're having a good first year of it. They're under no pressure to change. And they have some amount of time to see what transpires with respect to realignment from here. At the end of the day, they didn't take it to 12 out of the gate for their reasons.

[mtkc12]

First off, I wanted to thank XU Dash for the excellent post and insights. Perspectives like yours are why I still bother with message boards.

I am yet another Dayton fan, but we're all not the same. For those interested, I will simply state my case...and like you, many Dayton fans drive me crazy.

I grew up near Dayton, went to UD, and have loved Dayton basketball my whole life. I then went to Northwestern for my MBA and have lived in Richmond, VA for the last 15 years. I have season tickets to both VCU and UVa, and am heading down to Raleigh on Sunday to see Virginia (I hope--after Mercer beat Duke earlier today, I guess anything can happen). But even after being away for so long, Dayton (the school, the program, the city) still mean something to me.

Over the last day, I've heard UD and UD fans called everything from "Little Brother" (CBS) to "Stalker Girlfriend" (earlier post on this board). I think both are wrong. IMO, the UD program is sort of like the teen that got ditched by his/her friends and can't figure out why. Then they get defensive and start overcompensating..and it's not always pretty. The fans who say they're "glad UD stayed in the A10" are idiots or liars--maybe self-delusional, but liars nonetheless.

I can't name another comparable school/team that is in Dayton's shoes--we have no real rivals at the present time. Only one of the schools that remotely matter to us will play us anymore. They either left us, or always saw themselves as better than us.

Here are the stats in games played (Wins/Losses):

Xavier--84/74
DePaul--35/34
Marquette--14/21
Louisville--26/39
Cincinnati--31/60
Notre Dame--13/28
St. Louis--25/24--sort of a rival, from times before/after when I attended, but they'll bolt from the A10 (like us) at the first opportunity.

The only team we've dropped along the way is Miami (69/61). It's hard to have a rivalry when the other school could simply care less. For those of you who have ever been to Millett Hall, you know what I mean.

It's sort of depressing looking at the W/L's listed above. And yes, for the X fans, the last 25 years have definitely been mostly Xavier. But they're still rivalries--at least to us--and it's all we have. For the Marquette fans, I'd offer up Wisconsin's success against Ohio State. I just looked it up--18/56/5...but I bet Badgers still look forward to the Ohio State game every year they play.

I need to get ready to go to a VCU party, so I'll wrap this up. Dayton would love to be in the Big East. UD's President is doing everything he can to position the school as best it can to receive an invitation--if and when the Big East chooses to expand. UD is a great fit for the Big East. It's not just about men's basketball (although that is clearly the focal point). You can say whatever you want, and offer up whatever stats you have--but my perception is that after Georgetown and Villanova, the academics at the other schools are all somewhat similar--excellent--not Ivy League excellent, but excellent. My UD education (both in the classroom and socially) prepared me well for life--as I'm sure your school did for you. I'm not even Catholic, but I very much valued the and participated in the ministry and fabric that existed at the school.

In closing, I hope we get our shot, and I think we'd be a great member of the Big East. If so, I hope we someday get the chance to heckle each other at MSG and then go have a beer somewhere after the game. While all Dayton fans are passionate about our team, I doubt that the majority of us are all that bad.

Good luck to the Big East!

[Xudash]

Classy post mtkc12.

I enjoy rivalries, but I prefer the Army/Navy variety. The Nicklaus/Palmer variety. For me, it's about rivalries that involve mutual respect that follows contests where each competitor otherwise attempts to beat the complete snot out of the other. I don't need the "hate" to appreciate the rivalry.

IMO, the UD/XU rivalry became toxic. It's a shame, because it didn't have to end up like that.

We'll see what happens from here, but I believe nothing will be happening on the expansion front after this version of March Madness concludes.

I guess on top of everything else, your party got ruined tonight with some rather peculiar decision making at the end. I actually like Shaka and VCU. What a way to go down, but such is the NCAA Tournament. VCU fans hated every second of it, but fans around the country were treated to the high drama that invariably comes with this first weekend.

[RomainSato10]

I just posted on a ACC board the case for X to their league.

This topic has been beaten into the ground. Ud May one day be part of the league but they clearly did not do enough to warrant inclusion. I go on twitter or message boards and ud fan thinks this league sucks and they dodged a bullet. Yet I stop by here and I see ud fans begging to get in. You like to make fun of it but yet you would do anything to get in. Your local paper runs articles regularly on why xavier won't play ud and how frustrated your leaders were in not getting in. I love when a ud fan makes fun of fox, and your tv package is better? Lol. X made 300k last year on tv, they make millions now which doesn't affect me other than I can see every game on tv which is huge. There's a reason espn takes any moment to jab fox, they see it as a long term threat. Rupert Murdoch doesn't do things to fail.

Good luck against cuse

[Hoopfan]

Basing an opinion on an entire fan base based off of a few twitter, message board posters, etc is asinine. Be same as basing every liberal/republican off the crazy dude on the side the road yelling random things. There are posters here for other schools that make their fans look bad. He'll does every BE fan hate FS1 and this league? I see Stever throwing them under the bus everyday so you must all be unhappy by that logic

[RomainSato10]

Basing an opinion on an entire fan base based off of a few twitter, message board posters, etc is asinine. Be same as basing every liberal/republican off the crazy dude on the side the road yelling random things. There are posters here for other schools that make their fans look bad. He'll does every BE fan hate FS1 and this league? I see Stever throwing them under the bus everyday so you must all be unhappy by that logic

I'm not. My point was basically this topic is old and going on message boards to state your case is a waste of time. I was more or less pointing out the jealousy that some of the fan base has seemed to take on.

The whole BE fan hating fox and ratings is stupid. I don't care about ratings. I do get to see every game. Fox needs programming. If down the line fox drops us, then someone else will pick it up. I have no control over it, much like ud fans have no control over their inclusion in this league. I'm not giving high fives to fans at the games bc of ratings or checking how many people watched a game.

[Hoopfan]

Basing an opinion on an entire fan base based off of a few twitter, message board posters, etc is asinine. Be same as basing every liberal/republican off the crazy dude on the side the road yelling random things. There are posters here for other schools that make their fans look bad. He'll does every BE fan hate FS1 and this league? I see Stever throwing them under the bus everyday so you must all be unhappy by that logic

I'm not. My point was basically this topic is old and going on message boards to state your case is a waste of time. I was more or less pointing out the jealousy that some of the fan base has seemed to take on.

The whole BE fan hating fox and ratings is stupid. I don't care about ratings. I do get to see every game. Fox needs programming. If down the line fox drops us, then someone else will pick it up. I have no control over it, much like ud fans have no control over their inclusion in this league. I'm not giving high fives to fans at the games bc of ratings or checking how many people watched a game.

Ok i agree with that, maybe i misread your previous post