Sat 12/28 BE Game Thread (7 Games)

[stever20]

I think the frustrating thing about this season so far is we've never had a day where we were playing tough games where we didn't have to use the word but. Like today, we had a good day but Villanova/Providence lost. It's never been a day where everything fell right which is kind of strange quite frankly.... Normally you get 2-3 days where everything falls right.

[hoyahooligan]

I like Cameron, he's a Jersey baller, but I can't see how he doesn't transfer at some point next season. This is his time to carve out a niche but he (and Domingo for that matter) have been completely over-recruited by LJ Peak, Paul White & Isaac Copeland.

I still think Cameron will get playing time because he is a lights out shooter. He just needs to work on his defense in the off season. I think he'll be a solid 4 year player for us. I don't see him going anywhere.

[TheHall]

I like Cameron, he's a Jersey baller, but I can't see how he doesn't transfer at some point next season. This is his time to carve out a niche but he (and Domingo for that matter) have been completely over-recruited by LJ Peak, Paul White & Isaac Copeland.

I still think Cameron will get playing time because he is a lights out shooter. He just needs to work on his defense in the off season. I think he'll be a solid 4 year player for us. I don't see him going anywhere.

Watching the hoyas this year they desperately need better scoring way more than defense on the court. You guys only have 3 good scorers in White, DSR & Starks, when one is off it's over. If RC is really that good a shooter he should be getting more shots. I think he can be better but he's just not yet. During the summer he was crushing the Kenner league games with that shot.

[hoyahooligan]

I like Cameron, he's a Jersey baller, but I can't see how he doesn't transfer at some point next season. This is his time to carve out a niche but he (and Domingo for that matter) have been completely over-recruited by LJ Peak, Paul White & Isaac Copeland.

I still think Cameron will get playing time because he is a lights out shooter. He just needs to work on his defense in the off season. I think he'll be a solid 4 year player for us. I don't see him going anywhere.

Watching the hoyas this year they desperately need better scoring way more than defense on the court. You guys only have 3 good scorers in White, DSR & Starks, when one is off it's over. If RC is really that good a shooter he should be getting more shots. I think he can be better but he's just not yet. During the summer he was crushing the Kenner league games with that shot.

Our offense has been better than our defense so far this year. We only scored over 70 points 9 times last season and 2 of those were in OT. We only broke 80 3 times. So far this year We've already broken 70 8 times and broken 80 5 times. Offense is not a problem. Our Offensive efficiency is 34th 112.4 vs. 78th 105.7 last year. Our defense is much worse this year. 86.3 2nd last year but 96.2 40th this year. Last year only 1 opponent broke 80 and that was in OT, and only 4 other teams broke 70 and one of those was in 2OT. This year 3 teams have already cracked 80 against us and 2 additional ones have cracked 70.

So I think your initial premise is wrong that we need offense more than defense. Statistically we have the second best offense in the conference, but our defense is only 6th in the conference. So if we desperately need more scoring, then so does everyone else. I think our issue offensively is just poor rotations. We often have 2 guys on the court at the same time who aren't really threats to score and definitely have too many times when we only have one good outside shooter on the court. I think in BE play we'll see less of these rotations that were trying things out. But again I think the fact is our defense is poor so we need to outscore teams more so than we did last year so, our offense doesn't look as good as it has been since we're relying on it more to win games and because there is hope to improve offensively where as the defense is never going to be as good as it was last year with our personnel.

[stever20]

Just look at Georgetown's ratings Ken Pom-
last year offense- 105.7 78th, defense 86.3 2nd
this year offense- 112.4 34th, defense 96.2 40th

just a huge difference on defense.

another thing-we're giving up too many offensive rebounds.
last year- 31% 130th
this year- 33.7% 241st

we've been quicker on offense. last year 19 seconds per time, this year 17.6 seconds.

[TheHall]

Our offense has been better than our defense so far this year. We only scored over 70 points 9 times last season and 2 of those were in OT. We only broke 80 3 times. So far this year We've already broken 70 8 times and broken 80 5 times. Offense is not a problem. Our Offensive efficiency is 34th 112.4 vs. 78th 105.7 last year. Our defense is much worse this year. 86.3 2nd last year but 96.2 40th this year. Last year only 1 opponent broke 80 and that was in OT, and only 4 other teams broke 70 and one of those was in 2OT. This year 3 teams have already cracked 80 against us and 2 additional ones have cracked 70.

So I think your initial premise is wrong that we need offense more than defense. Statistically we have the second best offense in the conference, but our defense is only 6th in the conference. So if we desperately need more scoring, then so does everyone else. I think our issue offensively is just poor rotations. We often have 2 guys on the court at the same time who aren't really threats to score and definitely have too many times when we only have one good outside shooter on the court. I think in BE play we'll see less of these rotations that were trying things out. But again I think the fact is our defense is poor so we need to outscore teams more so than we did last year so, our offense doesn't look as good as it has been since we're relying on it more to win games and because there is hope to improve offensively where as the defense is never going to be as good as it was last year with our personnel.

I agree when the secondary players score the hoyas are top 25. But they don't consistantly. All I'm saying is I think it would be better not to have so much scoring concentrated in only 3 players. Most of the rest of the roster provides little offense so if they're on the court it must be for defense or ball-handling or something else that might not be as important as consistent scoring. Just look at the averages. Let me explain my premise better this way:

Hoyas top 4 scorers.

D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera 16.3
Markel Starks 15.9
Joshua Smith 12.7
Mikael Hopkin 7.2

Look at the fall-off after the first 3. Now here are some numbers from the big 3 in games where the hoyas struggled this year.

The hoyas 3 losses:

Oregon - DSR only goes for 5, Smith 25 & Starks 16

NE - Smith & Starks only score 9, DSR - 14

Kansas everything went wrong on offense & defense, but even that game Smith only went for 5

Close games:

Colgate - DSR 5 pts

Let me be clear, the hoyas are good regardless. I'm talking about the gap that's kept them from being ranked so far.

[stever20]

Look at the projected RPI's right now- as of 12/27/current RPI's as of today:
Villanova 7.3/4
Creighton 31.8/8
Georgetown 39.5/56
Xavier 58.3/45
Butler 59.2/147
Marquette 64.2/72
St John's 75.6/63
Providence 84.8/51
Seton Hall 145.5/136
DePaul 158.1/145

1st thing that stands out of course is Butler. go from 59.2 to 147 is really unbelievable.
surprise teams- Creighton, Providence. Xavier/St John's to a lesser degree
disappointments- Georgetown, Marquette

by and large, not that bad of a projection. Also- could even get closer this weekend- if Marquette beats St John's- both would get really close to their projection. If Georgetown beats Nova, same thing. If Butler beats both Seton Hall and DePaul- both would fall down to right at their projections.