Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[MUAvalanche]

About Conference USA back in 2005 and 2003- they absolutely were not a power conference...
2005- in Ken Pom- they were #9 conference
2003- in Ken Pom- they were #7 conference

CUSA was half a power conference at the time. UofL, Cincy, MU, DePaul, Charlotte, SLU, Memphis and UAB made tournament appearances and formed a group that was competitive with power conferences. The remaining teams (Houston, ECU, Tulane, S. Miss, USF, TCU) did not help basketball. Think AAC with 4 nonFB schools to enhance basketball.

[stever20]

I think people remember CUSA as being a lot better than it really was...

2005 and 2003 seasons CUSA only got 4 teams in the tourney out of 14.

just looking at the comparison between 2005/03 CUSA and 2014 AAC...
2014 AAC- was #7 at .7339. #6 SEC was .7353. #5 BE was .7370. #8 A10 was .6989.
2005- CUSA was #9 at .6630. #6 P10 was .7370. #5 SEC was .7673.
2003- CUSA was #7 at .6820. #6 P10 was .7329. #5 B10 was .7688. #8 MWC was .6448

So really no comparison at all between '14 AAC and '05/'03 CUSA. CUSA absolutely was a mid-major. AAC '14 with 4 tourney teams and the NIT runner up(with only 10 teams as well) wasn't.

[stever20]

About Conference USA back in 2005 and 2003- they absolutely were not a power conference...
2005- in Ken Pom- they were #9 conference
2003- in Ken Pom- they were #7 conference

CUSA was half a power conference at the time. UofL, Cincy, MU, DePaul, Charlotte, SLU, Memphis and UAB made tournament appearances and formed a group that was competitive with power conferences. The remaining teams (Houston, ECU, Tulane, S. Miss, USF, TCU) did not help basketball. Think AAC with 4 nonFB schools to enhance basketball.

2005- Louisville, Cincy, Charlotte, UAB made the tourney.
2003- Marquette, Memphis, Louisville, and Cincy made the tourney.

In the last 4 years-
2002- 3 teams made the tourney
2003- 4 teams made the tourney
2004- 6 teams made the tourney
2005- 4 teams made the tourney
17 teams- or 4.25 per year out of 14 teams. So that's barely half of the power teams.

[Bill Marsh]

Also your numbers are off a bit- it's only 24 seasons since 1991. You either have to include UNLV in '91 or it's 24 years(96 final 4 teams). Also would note that your numbers aren't including the 2 vacated teams(Memphis and UMass). That's fine, but then instead of saying only 9 of 100 it would be 9 of 92(there were 4 other final 4 teams that got vacated). If you say you have to include those vacated teams, then it's 11 of 96.

Count with me, Stever . . .

1991-2000 = 10
2001-2010 = 10
2011-2015 = 5

Total = 25

Including UNLV in 1991 is a fair point?

I did include Memphis and UMass. Who are you counting?

UMass (1996)
George Mason (2007)
Memphis (2008)
Butler (2010, 2011)
VCU (2011)
Wichita State (2013)

Those were my 7. I should have included UNLV, so that makes 8. I don't agree with CUSA before the Big East defections not being a power conference, but I won't argue the point. So Marquette and Louisville makes 10.

The fact that 90% of the Final Fours in a quarter century demonstrates how dominating the power conferences have been. The 10% outside that group shows that while possible! the odds are heavily stacked against those teams especially when #1 Gonzaga and undefeated Wichita .state both got knocked off.

Moreover, no one from outside the power conference has been able to have sustained success in this period the way a number of power conference schools have.

[stever20]

Also your numbers are off a bit- it's only 24 seasons since 1991. You either have to include UNLV in '91 or it's 24 years(96 final 4 teams). Also would note that your numbers aren't including the 2 vacated teams(Memphis and UMass). That's fine, but then instead of saying only 9 of 100 it would be 9 of 92(there were 4 other final 4 teams that got vacated). If you say you have to include those vacated teams, then it's 11 of 96.

Count with me, Stever . . .

1991-2000 = 10
2001-2010 = 10
2011-2015 = 5

Total = 25

Including UNLV in 1991 is a fair point?

I did include Memphis and UMass. Who are you counting?

UMass (1996)
George Mason (2007)
Memphis (2008)
Butler (2010, 2011)
VCU (2011)
Wichita State (2013)

Those were my 7. I should have included UNLV, so that makes 8. I don't agree with CUSA before the Big East defections not being a power conference, but I won't argue the point. So Marquette and Louisville makes 10.

The fact that 90% of the Final Fours in a quarter century demonstrates how dominating the power conferences have been. The 10% outside that group shows that while possible! the odds are heavily stacked against those teams especially when #1 Gonzaga and undefeated Wichita .state both got knocked off.

Moreover, no one from outside the power conference has been able to have sustained success in this period the way a number of power conference schools have.

Utah in 1998 out of the WAC. Cincy in 1992 in the Great Midwest.

So the list is-
1 UNLV 1991
2 Cincy 1992
3 UMass 1996
4 Utah 1998
5 Marquette 2003
6 Louisville 2005
7 George Mason 2006
8 Memphis 2008
9 Butler 2010
10 Butler 2011
11 VCU 2011
12 Wichita 2013

[_lh]

Teams in the power conferences have been dominating, not the conferences. Teams win titles not conferences. How has Vandy, Penn State, Northwestern, etc. done over this period of time?

[stever20]

One point, in the 25 years only 39 different schools have gone to the final 4. Over half of the final 4's in the last 25 years are by 8 teams- UNC(9), Duke(8), Kentucky(8), Mich St(7), Kansas(6), Florida(5), UConn(5), and UCLA(4). 6 others been 3 times- Michigan, Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio St, Wisconsin, and Louisville. So 70/100 final 4 teams in the last 25 years by 14 programs. The other 30 teams done by 25 programs.

[Bill Marsh]

Also your numbers are off a bit- it's only 24 seasons since 1991. You either have to include UNLV in '91 or it's 24 years(96 final 4 teams). Also would note that your numbers aren't including the 2 vacated teams(Memphis and UMass). That's fine, but then instead of saying only 9 of 100 it would be 9 of 92(there were 4 other final 4 teams that got vacated). If you say you have to include those vacated teams, then it's 11 of 96.

Count with me, Stever . . .

1991-2000 = 10
2001-2010 = 10
2011-2015 = 5

Total = 25

Including UNLV in 1991 is a fair point?

I did include Memphis and UMass. Who are you counting?

UMass (1996)
George Mason (2007)
Memphis (2008)
Butler (2010, 2011)
VCU (2011)
Wichita State (2013)

Those were my 7. I should have included UNLV, so that makes 8. I don't agree with CUSA before the Big East defections not being a power conference, but I won't argue the point. So Marquette and Louisville makes 10.

The fact that 90% of the Final Fours in a quarter century demonstrates how dominating the power conferences have been. The 10% outside that group shows that while possible! the odds are heavily stacked against those teams especially when #1 Gonzaga and undefeated Wichita .state both got knocked off.

Moreover, no one from outside the power conference has been able to have sustained success in this period the way a number of power conference schools have.

Utah in 1998 out of the WAC. Cincy in 1992 in the Great Midwest.

So the list is-
1 UNLV 1991
2 Cincy 1992
3 UMass 1996
4 Utah 1998
5 Marquette 2003
6 Louisville 2005
7 George Mason 2006
8 Memphis 2008
9 Butler 2010
10 Butler 2011
11 VCU 2011
12 Wichita 2013

Thanks.

Getting back to the original point that started this, it's hard for me to look at teams from the old CUSA, the old Mountain West, and the GMC as evidence that Gonzaga is just as well off in the WCC as they would be in the Big East.

[Bill Marsh]

One point, in the 25 years only 39 different schools have gone to the final 4. Over half of the final 4's in the last 25 years are by 8 teams- UNC(9), Duke(8), Kentucky(8), Mich St(7), Kansas(6), Florida(5), UConn(5), and UCLA(4). 6 others been 3 times- Michigan, Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio St, Wisconsin, and Louisville. So 70/100 final 4 teams in the last 25 years by 14 programs. The other 30 teams done by 25 programs.

Exactly. And all 14 of those programs have sustained their success by being in power conferences while mid majors who make a run to the Final Four are programs that invariably fizzle out if they don't join a power conference.

[stever20]

One point, in the 25 years only 39 different schools have gone to the final 4. Over half of the final 4's in the last 25 years are by 8 teams- UNC(9), Duke(8), Kentucky(8), Mich St(7), Kansas(6), Florida(5), UConn(5), and UCLA(4). 6 others been 3 times- Michigan, Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio St, Wisconsin, and Louisville. So 70/100 final 4 teams in the last 25 years by 14 programs. The other 30 teams done by 25 programs.

Exactly. And all 14 of those programs have sustained their success by being in power conferences while mid majors who make a run to the Final Four are programs that invariably fizzle out if they don't join a power conference.

The problem though with your logic is that there are if you count the Big East in there 75 P5+BE programs. 13/75 isn't a great ratio either(UConn not in there) Barely more than 1 in 6. Means even if you take the Big East out of the equation- it's 13/65- or 20%- or 1 in 5.

So being in a power conference doesn't automatically mean you are good, and not being in a power conference doesn't automatically mean you suck.