Big East Preseason Predictions Part II

[paulxu]

That sounds an awful lot like the intro to the Hunger Games.

[Edrick]

I see a lot of people citing the KenPom number- including AP members- but it's not an accurate number yet. At this point in the season it still has a lot of the pre-season expectations built in. Maybe you're unaware, but in late December we shouldn't be using anything besides actual results (such as NET).

Just look at how 7-6 Providence is ranked #79... ahead of #82 St. John's. There's no logic behind that whatsoever, except for the fact that KenPom was very high on Providence pre-season and low on St. John's. Now they're getting closer together, but it's still very inaccurate.

I actually agree that it's perfectly fine putting the Johnnies #8 or even potentially 9 or 10 given how strong the league is, but KenPom shouldn't be used. We are #49 in NET (and Providence is #129), which is a much better indicator.

You can ask him yourself, but that simply is not true. Here is an article that he wrote on the subject. https://kenpom.com/blog/what-happens-to ... n-anymore/

For point of reference, he said that on November 16 the preseason rankings had the weight of roughly 5 games. The weight reduces gradually to 0% (here Jan 23) -- "By the time mid-January arrives, the influence of the pre-season ratings will be tiny compared to 15-20 actual games that will have been played by each team."

So... At this point, you can assume the weight of the preseason (provided that slope) is 1.76 games. So, no, St Johns isn't rated low because of its preseason rating. It is rated low for a putrid NCSOS

[MackNova]

I see a lot of people citing the KenPom number- including AP members- but it's not an accurate number yet. At this point in the season it still has a lot of the pre-season expectations built in. Maybe you're unaware, but in late December we shouldn't be using anything besides actual results (such as NET).

Just look at how 7-6 Providence is ranked #79... ahead of #82 St. John's. There's no logic behind that whatsoever, except for the fact that KenPom was very high on Providence pre-season and low on St. John's. Now they're getting closer together, but it's still very inaccurate.

I actually agree that it's perfectly fine putting the Johnnies #8 or even potentially 9 or 10 given how strong the league is, but KenPom shouldn't be used. We are #49 in NET (and Providence is #129), which is a much better indicator.

You can ask him yourself, but that simply is not true. Here is an article that he wrote on the subject. https://kenpom.com/blog/what-happens-to ... n-anymore/

For point of reference, he said that on November 16 the preseason rankings had the weight of roughly 5 games. The weight reduces gradually to 0% (here Jan 23) -- "By the time mid-January arrives, the influence of the pre-season ratings will be tiny compared to 15-20 actual games that will have been played by each team."

So... At this point, you can assume the weight of the preseason (provided that slope) is 1.76 games. So, no, St Johns isn't rated low because of its preseason rating. It is rated low for a putrid NCSOS

Also, KenPom is meant to be predictive. NET may be a better judge of your current resume, but KenPom is a better way to predict how things will look going forward (which is exactly what a predictions thread is for).

[Xuperman]

With round 1 in the books, not many surprises but certainly some good points of reference going forward.

VU-XU
Moore is for real. Most Freshman guards don't move the needle at this level but he plays like a senior. I'm thinking freshman of the year easy. Along with CG, the Wildcat backcourt was too much for X to counter this time. On the flip, Xavier's frontcourt had their way from a physicality standpoint. Mr. Jones looked ALL BE vs an overmatched JRE.

PC-GU
The Friars woke up and played to my lofty preseason expectations. This was a sound thrashing. Still can't understand why Big Nate is riding so much pine. I also picked the Hoyas in my top five but with the departures, there is ZERO room for error. They'll be fine as long as McGunn can go 30+ minutes.

SJU-BU
Great game because of the heart on display in the comeback, but not impressed with either team. The Johnnies will struggle to get any W's until Heron gets back and Butler will go where Baldwin takes them. Still confident both will finish in the bottom half.

DU-SHU
DePaul easily the biggest surprise. The Kansas transfer making a WORLD of difference! Excellent inside/outside for them with a very impressive Paul Reed kickin' ass. Both look ALL BE. But my pick to win the conference too much even with some home cookin'. The Hall is ready to go on a run.

CU-MU
What can you say? That was a thorough beat down. Looks like the Jays only go 6 deep and are lacking BE size/muscle up front but man they have some shooters don't they. Z is f'ing phenomenal. Paired with Alexander, they may end up being the best backcourt in conference. I predicted MU in the bottom half and they didn't disappoint. They're going to have trouble every game that Howard scores under 20. Can that McEwen guy be productive at this level? AND who told Theo John to take the day off? Jayce Johnson looks like a bust.

[Novachap]

With round 1 in the books, not many surprises but certainly some good points of reference going forward.

VU-XU
Moore is for real. Most Freshman guards don't move the needle at this level but he plays like a senior. I'm thinking freshman of the year easy. Along with CG, the Wildcat backcourt was too much for X to counter this time. On the flip, Xavier's frontcourt had their way from a physicality standpoint. Mr. Jones looked ALL BE vs an overmatched JRE.

PC-GU
The Friars woke up and played to my lofty preseason expectations. This was a sound thrashing. Still can't understand why Big Nate is riding so much pine. I also picked the Hoyas in my top five but with the departures, there is ZERO room for error. They'll be fine as long as McGunn can go 30+ minutes.

SJU-BU
Great game because of the heart on display in the comeback, but not impressed with either team. The Johnnies will struggle to get any W's until Heron gets back and Butler will go where Baldwin takes them. Still confident both will finish in the bottom half.

DU-SHU
DePaul easily the biggest surprise. The Kansas transfer making a WORLD of difference! Excellent inside/outside for them with a very impressive Paul Reed kickin' ass. Both look ALL BE. But my pick to win the conference too much even with some home cookin'. The Hall is ready to go on a run.

CU-MU
What can you say? That was a thorough beat down. Looks like the Jays only go 6 deep and are lacking BE size/muscle up front but man they have some shooters don't they. Z is f'ing phenomenal. Paired with Alexander, they may end up being the best backcourt in conference. I predicted MU in the bottom half and they didn't disappoint. They're going to have trouble every game that Howard scores under 20. Can that McEwen guy be productive at this level? AND who told Theo John to take the day off? Jayce Johnson looks like a bust.

[b]VU-XU
Moore is for real. Most Freshman guards don't move the needle at this level but he plays like a senior. I'm thinking freshman of the year easy. Along with CG, the Wildcat backcourt was too much for X to counter this time. On the flip, Xavier's frontcourt had their way from a physicality standpoint. Mr. Jones looked ALL BE vs an overmatched JRE.

Good recap overall Xup. Re Nova / X, yes, I really like Moore too. As he grows with respect to turnovers / passing, he will be a major force. He seems to find a way to get to the hoop on most everyone, is really strong, finishes with both hands and is smooth.

I know you were hoping for Jones to beat down JRE, yes, he had a few better stats (shame he missed that one dunk or I am sure you would have posted that video!), but JRE hitting that 3 early on forced him away from the hoop a bit. That coupled with X's decision to stay at home and deny the 3 really opened it up for Gillespie and Moore to drive-and shut down Swider's open looks. Nova did not shoot well from 3 at all, but at least we didn't miss 31. Despite X's physicality, Nova won the game because of rebounding, even with Jones having 10. Samuels had 8 rebounds and most were timely Offensive ones. He played well and and quietly had 14 and 8.

I thought Naji outplayed Bey, but man oh man, some really poor decision making when the game was close at the end. I really like Freemantle for you guys. He is a player and needs more time on the floor. Although Jones has the highlights, I think by the end of the year Freemantle will be a better overall inside option.

Our other 5 star Antoine still has to find his way to the floor. 2 quick fouls and he got yanked for the rest of the game. Hoping he starts to get a few more minutes each game as he will eventually be a guy that not only is a really good 3 point shooter, but can break down his defender and be another option besides Gillespie and Moore at Guard. If he does start to see the floor some I think we could be in for some fireworks between him and KyKy town the road, maybe as early as 2/22.

[scoscox]

JRE hitting one three notwithstanding he was thoroughly outplayed by our bigs. 5 points and 4 rebs in 33 minutes. Tyrique had 12 and 10 in 23 minutes and freemantle has 6 and 5 in 17 minutes. You could tell freemantle was having fun with him. He doesn’t seem physically prepared to play the 5 quite yet

You guys won because q did not play well against Gillespie and we didn’t do a good job being prepared for long rebounds much like at msg last year. A fixable problem but frustrating in the moment. It also helped to have naji bail you guys out multiple times with bad threes when hed been virtually unstoppable around the rim all night. He has to be more disciplined

[Novachap]

JRE hitting one three notwithstanding he was thoroughly outplayed by our bigs. 5 points and 4 rebs in 33 minutes. Tyrique had 12 and 10 in 23 minutes and freemantle has 6 and 5 in 17 minutes. You could tell freemantle was having fun with him. He doesn’t seem physically prepared to play the 5 quite yet

You guys won because q did not play well against Gillespie and we didn’t do a good job being prepared for long rebounds much like at msg last year. A fixable problem but frustrating in the moment. It also helped to have naji bail you guys out multiple times with bad threes when hed been virtually unstoppable around the rim all night. He has to be more disciplined

ON JRE, 5 is not his natural position, he is a 4. He will be ok I think expectations from everyone are incredibly high about him, but Jay absolutely loves the kid's intelligence on the court and his decision making. also, beg to differ, think we won for some other reasons as well, not just Q playing badly. Reality is, Nova didn't play all that great either. Bey played for crap, and we missed a lot of bunnies just like X did. Finally, Nova shot pretty poorly from 3. I think Moore and Samuels were the difference (aside from gillespie obviously). wrt to Naji, hate to say it, not sure if the lack of discipline is indeed fixable. He has consistently showed fantastic physical skills over his career, but whenever I have seen him (albeit certainly less than you) he has consistently not demonstrated the best decision making. I could be wrong, but I think its a mindset with him ( a bit of hero ball)---he had Tandy wide open on the wing when he launched one of thise 30 footers--sometimes there is a real lack of discipline and clearly something Mack and now Steele have not reigned in---for whatever reason.

[Xudash]

JRE hitting one three notwithstanding he was thoroughly outplayed by our bigs. 5 points and 4 rebs in 33 minutes. Tyrique had 12 and 10 in 23 minutes and freemantle has 6 and 5 in 17 minutes. You could tell freemantle was having fun with him. He doesn’t seem physically prepared to play the 5 quite yet

You guys won because q did not play well against Gillespie and we didn’t do a good job being prepared for long rebounds much like at msg last year. A fixable problem but frustrating in the moment. It also helped to have naji bail you guys out multiple times with bad threes when hed been virtually unstoppable around the rim all night. He has to be more disciplined

ON JRE, 5 is not his natural position, he is a 4. He will be ok I think expectations from everyone are incredibly high about him, but Jay absolutely loves the kid's intelligence on the court and his decision making. also, beg to differ, think we won for some other reasons as well, not just Q playing badly. Reality is, Nova didn't play all that great either. Bey played for crap, and we missed a lot of bunnies just like X did. Finally, Nova shot pretty poorly from 3. I think Moore and Samuels were the difference (aside from gillespie obviously). wrt to Naji, hate to say it, not sure if the lack of discipline is indeed fixable. He has consistently showed fantastic physical skills over his career, but whenever I have seen him (albeit certainly less than you) he has consistently not demonstrated the best decision making. I could be wrong, but I think its a mindset with him ( a bit of hero ball)---he had Tandy wide open on the wing when he launched one of thise 30 footers--sometimes there is a real lack of discipline and clearly something Mack and now Steele have not reigned in---for whatever reason.

That, that right there is what Xavier fans want corrected. It can't happen soon enough, but we hope it does happen before it's too late.

[Xuperman]

Shed some light for us Chap or anyone in NovaLand.

What's up with DCR being reduced to such limited PT? I mean he was getting 20+ minutes last year and now just 7 as a Junior? That can't be doing much for his moral but I guess JRE is that much better. Also, Slater was not productive at all last year and didn't get much traction to speak of this OOC. Are you guys at all worried about bench depth? You need Antoine to get it going or the BEast will take a toll come late Feb.

BTW any concern yet? Villanova has always carried the "3 Ball" flag into battle but 31 of 114 in the last 4? Geez, that's off your own rims at a 27% clip...officially a slump. Oddly it hasn't kept you from winning as your last 2 opponents were way worse, a dismal 4 of 24. But hey, that style is baked into the system, the guns a blazin' will continue....Eerily similar to the Creighton system but with much fancier recruits and a prettier coach.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Shed some light for us Chap or anyone in NovaLand.

What's up with DCR being reduced to such limited PT? I mean he was getting 20+ minutes last year and now just 7 as a Junior? That can't be doing much for his moral but I guess JRE is that much better. Also, Slater was not productive at all last year and didn't get much traction to speak of this OOC. Are you guys concerned with bench depth? You need Antoine to get it going or the BEast will take a toll come late Feb.

BTW any concern yet? Villanova has always carried the "3 Ball" flag into battle but 31 of 114 in the last 4? Geez, that's off your own rims at a 27% clip...officially a slump. Oddly it hasn't kept you from winning as your last 2 opponents were way worse, a dismal 4 of 24. But hey, that style is baked into the system, the guns a blazin' will continue....Eerily similar to the Creighton system but with much fancier recruits and a prettier coach.

1. DCR is hurt. Had surgery on his shin over the summer. Physically he is just not right. But he showed some flashes in the X game.
2. Slater is actually improving nicely. He's disruptive on D, a good offensive rebounder and is figuring things out. He plays team ball. That's what we need.
3. Antoine will be fine. He's got to learn how to play better D. When he does, he'll get more burn.
4. The BEast taking it's toll...well X plays 4 guys 30+ mpg. Are you at all concerned with them being worn down as well? I'm only worried about Gillespie because he plays the game hard/recklessly at times. Preseason I believe a few X fans labeled CG as a below average PG that Q would dominate. Any thoughts on that?
5. The 3 ball. The game has changed. Shooting is a big part of it. Jay and Mac, among others, both recognize its importance and both of them specifically recruit and develop shooters. X has not embraced that same philosophy. I, personally, think Jay and Mac are a bit more innovative than Steele on the offensive side of the ball. Steele seems to be a very good defensive coach. I guess we'll see which approach proves to be more effective over 18 games. Bey, Swider, Gillespie, Moore and to a lesser extent Samules and JRE can all shoot the ball. Jay gives the a green light. I'm 100% OK with that. I do find it interesting that you'd call us out on shooting after 1-11 and 29% on the year.