How many Big East teams will make the NCAA tourney?

[Hall2012]

I think 9-9 will be enough to get in for Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. The bubble is terrible this year and they are all trending in the right direction. There will be high-major teams with losing records making the tourney.

I think the conference tournament is virtually meaningless. People always act like those games matter, but I can't remember anyone playing their way in or out in recent years. If you're not part of their bracket on Tuesday, nothing you do after will change that unless you win the automatic bid.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if we got one of the above three in with 8-10 in league play. Seton Hall would probably be the most likely as they would still have 18 wins and no really bad losses. That said, I expect the Hall in at 9-9, with Marquette at 10-8 and Providence at 9-9.

The team (likely one of the 3 you mentioned) that finishes 7th plays DePaul in the first round of the BET. Right there is a chance to play themselves out of the dance. Based on tiebreakers, that team appears most likely to be Seton Hall.

[Bill Marsh]

The closer I look at this, the more uncertain I become. I was thinking 6, but now I'm thinking it could be 4. Injuries and upsets have created a great OF uncertainty.

I'm thinking that Marquette will finish strong to get to 10-8, grab the 3-seed, and win a first round game before losing to Butler. But that puts them squarely on the bubble. Who knows which way the committee will go?

Same thing for PC. Finish strong to get to 9-9, grab the 5-seed, and win a first round game. Efore losing to Villanova. Squarely on the bubble and who knows what the committee does.

Seton Hall is in position to earn a bid, but their play is very uncertain and uneven that they could play themselves out of it. They look like another bubble team whose fate could be left in the hands of the committee.

And what about Xavier? They've lost 4 in a row and have tough games coming up against Butler and Marquette. What happens if they lose those games and then go out in the first round of the tournament. Their record and RPI would still justify a big, but might the committee hold the loss of Summer against them in a scenario in which they lose a lot of games after he's gone?

[MUWarrior1090]

Stever,

You continue to underrate Big East teams. I can't speak as in-depth about other BE teams, but you make it sound like Marquette is eliminated at 9-9. I think they still have a really good shot, even going 1-2 down the stretch. The RPI would project to 68 at 18-12, which is low but we have seen teams with worse RPI's get in recently. Not to mention, their other computer numbers (Kenpom, Sagarin) love MU far more than other BE bubble teams. KenPom 31 compared to 56/58 for PC/SHU

Marquette's top 50 wins can't be matched by really any team on the bubble, and they only have one "bad" loss @SJU. Would I be sweating it out on Selection Sunday? Of course. It'd be no guarantee. But if MU goes 2-1 down the stretch not only will they be in but they will probably be a 9-10 seed and clear of the last 8 teams in or so.

Today, with Marquette sitting at 17-10 with an RPI of 69, they sit safely in 107/115 brackets on bracket matrix. Out of the 60 brackets that have been updated since Tuesday, Marquette is safely in 59 of them. The only bracket that has them out is RealTimeRPI, which makes sense but has no human aspect.

Does Marquette need to go 2-1 to feel safe? Sure. That would make them an absolute lock. 1-2 would give them a 50/50 shot and could definitely get them to Dayton. The "Next 8 out" on bracket matrix" consists of Clemson, Vanderbilt, Houston, Rhode Island, Georgia Tech, Providence, Tennessee and Wake Forest. No way is WF getting in over MU with their top 50 numbers. If it's close between Vandy and MU, MU has a blowout neutral win over them. GA Tech and Tennessee keep losing. Rhode Island and Houston's RPI will only get worse from here. Hell, even Illinois State who projects as in right now, has virtually no chance of passing Marquette since they have no good wins and their computer numbers will keep dropping, while Marquette's RPI will rise even with a 1-2 finish. Providence is the only real team that can push past MU and that's because of the game on Saturday.

Could the other teams get some huge wins that drastically change their current profile? Of course. But they haven't given us any reason to think they can do that.

/end rant

[Bill Marsh]

Stever,

You continue to underrate Big East teams. I can't speak as in-depth about other BE teams, but you make it sound like Marquette is eliminated at 9-9. I think they still have a really good shot, even going 1-2 down the stretch. The RPI would project to 68 at 18-12, which is low but we have seen teams with worse RPI's get in recently. Not to mention, their other computer numbers (Kenpom, Sagarin) love MU far more than other BE bubble teams. KenPom 31 compared to 56/58 for PC/SHU

Marquette's top 50 wins can't be matched by really any team on the bubble, and they only have one "bad" loss @SJU. Would I be sweating it out on Selection Sunday? Of course. It'd be no guarantee. But if MU goes 2-1 down the stretch not only will they be in but they will probably be a 9-10 seed and clear of the last 8 teams in or so.

Today, with Marquette sitting at 17-10 with an RPI of 69, they sit safely in 107/115 brackets on bracket matrix. Out of the 60 brackets that have been updated since Tuesday, Marquette is safely in 59 of them. The only bracket that has them out is RealTimeRPI, which makes sense but has no human aspect.

Does Marquette need to go 2-1 to feel safe? Sure. That would make them an absolute lock. 1-2 would give them a 50/50 shot and could definitely get them to Dayton. The "Next 8 out" on bracket matrix" consists of Clemson, Vanderbilt, Houston, Rhode Island, Georgia Tech, Providence, Tennessee and Wake Forest. No way is WF getting in over MU with their top 50 numbers. If it's close between Vandy and MU, MU has a blowout neutral win over them. GA Tech and Tennessee keep losing. Rhode Island and Houston's RPI will only get worse from here. Hell, even Illinois State who projects as in right now, has virtually no chance of passing Marquette since they have no good wins and their computer numbers will keep dropping, while Marquette's RPI will rise even with a 1-2 finish. Providence is the only real team that can push past MU and that's because of the game on Saturday.

Could the other teams get some huge wins that drastically change their current profile? Of course. But they haven't given us any reason to think they can do that.

/end rant

MUWarrior, I think you have good reason to be optimistic.

[DanofXav76]

The closer I look at this, the more uncertain I become. I was thinking 6, but now I'm thinking it could be 4. Injuries and upsets have created a great OF uncertainty.

I'm thinking that Marquette will finish strong to get to 10-8, grab the 3-seed, and win a first round game before losing to Butler. But that puts them squarely on the bubble. Who knows which way the committee will go?

Same thing for PC. Finish strong to get to 9-9, grab the 5-seed, and win a first round game. Efore losing to Villanova. Squarely on the bubble and who knows what the committee does.

Seton Hall is in position to earn a bid, but their play is very uncertain and uneven that they could play themselves out of it. They look like another bubble team whose fate could be left in the hands of the committee.

And what about Xavier? They've lost 4 in a row and have tough games coming up against Butler and Marquette. What happens if they lose those games and then go out in the first round of the tournament. Their record and RPI would still justify a big, but might the committee hold the loss of Summer against them in a scenario in which they lose a lot of games after he's gone?

I'm feeling good about X going 2-1 down the stretch, with a 50/50 shot at 3-0. No BET prediction until the brackets are set. Just going with my gut here.

[brewcity77]

The closer I look at this, the more uncertain I become. I was thinking 6, but now I'm thinking it could be 4. Injuries and upsets have created a great OF uncertainty.

I'm thinking that Marquette will finish strong to get to 10-8, grab the 3-seed, and win a first round game before losing to Butler. But that puts them squarely on the bubble. Who knows which way the committee will go?

Same thing for PC. Finish strong to get to 9-9, grab the 5-seed, and win a first round game. Efore losing to Villanova. Squarely on the bubble and who knows what the committee does.

Seton Hall is in position to earn a bid, but their play is very uncertain and uneven that they could play themselves out of it. They look like another bubble team whose fate could be left in the hands of the committee.

And what about Xavier? They've lost 4 in a row and have tough games coming up against Butler and Marquette. What happens if they lose those games and then go out in the first round of the tournament. Their record and RPI would still justify a big, but might the committee hold the loss of Summer against them in a scenario in which they lose a lot of games after he's gone?

If Marquette goes 10-8 they are a stone cold lock no matter what happens at MSG.

Seriously, I really think people just aren't looking at the bottom of the bracket. Look at the resumes of the last 8 in and the first 8 out. There are some really, really, really bad teams in there. Anyone really think they'll be taking a 5-13 ACC team over a 9-9 Big East team? You're out of your mind.

We have teams still on the bubble, but anyone that gets to 9-9 is in.

[stever20]

to say that Marquette at 9-9 would be a lock with a RPI of 70 is comical. They would need to win in the BET in what would likely be a game with Creighton I think. If they are 18-13, things would be really dicey for them. No way would that be a 50/50 shot.

The problem looking at the Matrix is sure they're in a lot of brackets.. But they are in a lot of folks 1st 4 right now where a loss or 2 and they are out.

Also, the one thing that would give me pause for Marquette fans quite frankly is the bracket reveal from a few weeks ago. The committee used RPI quite a lot in that.

[Bill Marsh]

to say that Marquette at 9-9 would be a lock with a RPI of 70 is comical. They would need to win in the BET in what would likely be a game with Creighton I think. If they are 18-13, things would be really dicey for them. No way would that be a 50/50 shot.

The problem looking at the Matrix is sure they're in a lot of brackets.. But they are in a lot of folks 1st 4 right now where a loss or 2 and they are out.

Also, the one thing that would give me pause for Marquette fans quite frankly is the bracket reveal from a few weeks ago. The committee used RPI quite a lot in that.

If it's comical to say that Marquette would be a lock with an RPI of 70, why did you say in another thread that Syracuse is a lock when their RPI projects to 75?

[pc5151]

Why do people even acknowledge Stever any more? If anyone still thinks he is credible or knowledgeable just read a few of his posts, he contradicts himself all the time. He makes wild comments then back peddles on them. His only purpose is to try and argue against what people post, it's comical and kind of pathetic.

[butlerguy03]

In my previous message I was the lone 4, but I left the door open for what has occurred. Right now, I'd say 7. Such is the life when you have 3 teams on the bubble.