Will Big 5 split from NCAA basketball?

[marquette]

I agree that sports networks have saturated the market, and the "increase rate" of subscribers is decreasing. However, look at these specialty networks. The SEC Network is available to 90 million viewers, and their business model is to sign up 75 million. The Big Ten Network is projected 60 million. The Pac 12 Network has 26 million. That is a lot of viewers even if the projections are off, certainly enough to attract sponsors for a P5 tourney. Add to that whatever the Big 12 / Longhorn Network has plus whatever the ACC brews up, and you are looking at 200 million viewers. Will they all watch a hoops tourney, nope. But to suggest there won't be sponsors pouring in money is, well, shortsighted. Again, I hope I am wrong and you are right. To ignore this potential threat your choice.

I'm assuming you are being intentionally snarky with this response, so I will respond in kind.

So, what you are trying to tell me is that in a country of 320 million people, including several million who don't have/can't afford tv, several million who are under the age of 10, several million who are in nursing homes, several million second and third shifters, tens of millions who aren't interested in sports at all there will be 2 out of every 3 watching the P5 networks? You are assuming zero overlap, and that's just not logical/possible.

Do you know what the trend is with cord-cutting? The price increases demanded by sports network carriage fees is unsustainable. You remember the housing bubble? The dot-com bubble? The railroad bubble? The freaking tulip bubble?

For the record, there are 116.3 million tv households in the United States.

[SJHooper]

Yup, just like Coke. You don't fix something that's not only not broken but the best postseason tourney in America. The P5 forming their own would never catch on like the current setup. I think it's a waste of time to worry about a P5 only tournament. There's a better chance of the P5 conferences adding SJ, G'Town, Nova, UConn, Xavier, Cincy, Marquette, Creighton, Memphis, Gonzaga, etc. as basketball only members than leaving them all on the outside looking in with a new tourney.

Right now I'm way more worried about Lavin's ability to recruit (no major recruits have signed for 2014 or 2015) and coach (has had teams underperform all but 1 year). The P5 tournament is not happening guys.

[HoosierPal]

I agree that sports networks have saturated the market, and the "increase rate" of subscribers is decreasing. However, look at these specialty networks. The SEC Network is available to 90 million viewers, and their business model is to sign up 75 million. The Big Ten Network is projected 60 million. The Pac 12 Network has 26 million. That is a lot of viewers even if the projections are off, certainly enough to attract sponsors for a P5 tourney. Add to that whatever the Big 12 / Longhorn Network has plus whatever the ACC brews up, and you are looking at 200 million viewers. Will they all watch a hoops tourney, nope. But to suggest there won't be sponsors pouring in money is, well, shortsighted. Again, I hope I am wrong and you are right. To ignore this potential threat your choice.

I'm assuming you are being intentionally snarky with this response, so I will respond in kind.

So, what you are trying to tell me is that in a country of 320 million people, including several million who don't have/can't afford tv, several million who are under the age of 10, several million who are in nursing homes, several million second and third shifters, tens of millions who aren't interested in sports at all there will be 2 out of every 3 watching the P5 networks? You are assuming zero overlap, and that's just not logical/possible.

Do you know what the trend is with cord-cutting? The price increases demanded by sports network carriage fees is unsustainable. You remember the housing bubble? The dot-com bubble? The railroad bubble? The freaking tulip bubble?

For the record, there are 116.3 million tv households in the United States.

Sorry you feel I am 'snarky' because I don't agree with you. For the fourth time, I hope you are right.

Three things you missed:
1) It's viewer's not TV's
2) These networks are international. Canada already is in the scope of these networks.
3) Today many cable networks are available on-line. All will be in 10 years. There will be a billion potential viewers. Take your laptop to London, bingo, the P5 will be live and in color.

It's obvious I'm not going to change your opinion and you aren't changing mine. The threat is real my friend. 10 years.....

[muskienick]

Right now I'm way more worried about Lavin's ability to recruit (no major recruits have signed for 2014 or 2015) and coach (has had teams underperform all but 1 year). The P5 tournament is not happening guys.

SJH,

Please find me a D-1 Head Coach in the U.S who has signed a recruit of any kind, major or otherwise, for 2015 and I'll find you a coach whose program will be suffering grave penalties for years to come!

[Professor_Bulldog]

I agree that sports networks have saturated the market, and the "increase rate" of subscribers is decreasing. However, look at these specialty networks. The SEC Network is available to 90 million viewers, and their business model is to sign up 75 million. The Big Ten Network is projected 60 million. The Pac 12 Network has 26 million. That is a lot of viewers even if the projections are off, certainly enough to attract sponsors for a P5 tourney. Add to that whatever the Big 12 / Longhorn Network has plus whatever the ACC brews up, and you are looking at 200 million viewers. Will they all watch a hoops tourney, nope. But to suggest there won't be sponsors pouring in money is, well, shortsighted. Again, I hope I am wrong and you are right. To ignore this potential threat your choice.

I'm assuming you are being intentionally snarky with this response, so I will respond in kind.

So, what you are trying to tell me is that in a country of 320 million people, including several million who don't have/can't afford tv, several million who are under the age of 10, several million who are in nursing homes, several million second and third shifters, tens of millions who aren't interested in sports at all there will be 2 out of every 3 watching the P5 networks? You are assuming zero overlap, and that's just not logical/possible.

Do you know what the trend is with cord-cutting? The price increases demanded by sports network carriage fees is unsustainable. You remember the housing bubble? The dot-com bubble? The railroad bubble? The freaking tulip bubble?

For the record, there are 116.3 million tv households in the United States.

Sorry you feel I am 'snarky' because I don't agree with you. For the fourth time, I hope you are right.

Three things you missed:
1) It's viewer's not TV's
2) These networks are international. Canada already is in the scope of these networks.
3) Today many cable networks are available on-line. All will be in 10 years. There will be a billion potential viewers. Take your laptop to London, bingo, the P5 will be live and in color.

It's obvious I'm not going to change your opinion and you aren't changing mine. The threat is real my friend. 10 years.....

I really don't think you understand how the cable industry works.

[HoosierPal]

[quote="HoosierPalSorry you feel I am 'snarky' because I don't agree with you. For the fourth time, I hope you are right.

Three things you missed:
1) It's viewer's not TV's
2) These networks are international. Canada already is in the scope of these networks.
3) Today many cable networks are available on-line. All will be in 10 years. There will be a billion potential viewers. Take your laptop to London, bingo, the P5 will be live and in color.

It's obvious I'm not going to change your opinion and you aren't changing mine. The threat is real my friend. 10 years.....

I really don't think you understand how the cable industry works.[/quote]

Don't limit yourself to what is available today. It's called distribution channels, channels where someone can make money. The iPhone was first available in what, 2007? Now, I can stream NFL games on my phone or iPad from wherever I am. The NFL gets money from me for the usage. Distribution channels that will be available 10 years from now haven't been invented yet. Cable as we know it today may or may not even be around in 10 years. It will certainly need to adapt to the technology that is forthcoming. (Remember, Al Gore credited himself with creating the Internet only what 20 years ago?)

I think we can all agree that the P5 are concerned with their own well being, their own revenue. Whenever they can increase their money grab, they will. That includes football, basketball, soccer, baseball, volleyball, etc. Ten years is too long to assume status quo in my opinion.

[FormulaX]

If, there is a P5 BB Tourney. Would there still be an NCAA tourney? I would just watch that and an FCS championship playoff, also. I will find those channels and won't watch any of that semi-pro P5 stuff.

[Professor_Bulldog]

[quote="HoosierPalSorry you feel I am 'snarky' because I don't agree with you. For the fourth time, I hope you are right.

Three things you missed:
1) It's viewer's not TV's
2) These networks are international. Canada already is in the scope of these networks.
3) Today many cable networks are available on-line. All will be in 10 years. There will be a billion potential viewers. Take your laptop to London, bingo, the P5 will be live and in color.

It's obvious I'm not going to change your opinion and you aren't changing mine. The threat is real my friend. 10 years.....

I really don't think you understand how the cable industry works.

Don't limit yourself to what is available today. It's called distribution channels, channels where someone can make money. The iPhone was first available in what, 2007? Now, I can stream NFL games on my phone or iPad from wherever I am. The NFL gets money from me for the usage. Distribution channels that will be available 10 years from now haven't been invented yet. Cable as we know it today may or may not even be around in 10 years. It will certainly need to adapt to the technology that is forthcoming. (Remember, Al Gore credited himself with creating the Internet only what 20 years ago?)

I think we can all agree that the P5 are concerned with their own well being, their own revenue. Whenever they can increase their money grab, they will. That includes football, basketball, soccer, baseball, volleyball, etc. Ten years is too long to assume status quo in my opinion.[/quote]

Yeah but I feel as though you are equating the exponential growth of technology with a similar growth in college sports viewership/interest. Just as it is unwise to assume the status quo in ten years, it is just as unwise to assume that there will be demand from hundreds of millions/billions of viewers to make what you are talking about make sense.

[HoosierPal]

Yeah but I feel as though you are equating the exponential growth of technology with a similar growth in college sports viewership/interest. Just as it is unwise to assume the status quo in ten years, it is just as unwise to assume that there will be demand from hundreds of millions/billions of viewers to make what you are talking about make sense.

Fair enough. Two Bulldog fans can disagree. We'll meet for a beer 10 years from now and compare notes, okay?

[XtoDC]

I think it is much more likely that the NBA beefs up the NBDL and hurts college basketball interest that way. With that as a threat to the potential revenue of both the P5 teams and schools like us, I think they stand together and keep the NCAA Tournament pretty close to what it currently is.