FORBES: AAC May Have Strongest Teams in the Dance

[Bill Marsh]

If you look closer at the American, it looks like UConn is carrying the AAC's water.
The top 5 in the AAC basically point around in a vicious-circle at each other when they need to point out their significant wins. OOC the AAC isn't impressive. In conference, the 5 of them are handed 10 free wins from the 5 wimps on the bottom. RPI-wise, UConn is the only one with an impressive win OOC.

so OOC:

SMU:
best wins:
113 Texas A&M.
114 Wyoming.
136 Sam Houston.
losses to:
10 Virginia.
58 Arkansas.

Louisville:
best wins:
40 Southern Mississippi.
97 Missouri State.
127 UL-Lafayette.
losses to:
18 Kentucky.
21 UNC.

Memphis:
best wins:
44 Oklahoma State.
64 LSU.
168 Ark-Little Rock.
losses to:
3 Florida.
44 Oklahoma State again.

Cincinnati:
best wins:
45 Pitt.
55 Nebraska.
67 Middle Tennessee State.
76 NC State.
losses to:
14 New Mexico.
37 Xavier. <---by 20 pts.

Connecticut: <--- best OOC results for the AAC.
best wins:
3 Florida.
51 Harvard.
73 Maryland.
79 Indiana.
80 Washington.
losses to:
42 Stanford.

then in conference the vicious-circle starts:
SMU: "we beat UConn twice, plus Memphis and Cincinnati."
Louisville: "we beat UConn, Cincinnati and SMU."
Memphis: "we beat Louisville twice."
Cincinnati: "we beat Louisville, SMU, UConn and Memphis."
UConn: "we beat Memphis twice, plus Cincinnati."

Look at Louisville's results... totally undeserving of being ranked 10th or whatever they are.

The AAC as a total conference combined has only 4 Top-50 wins OOC, and only ONE Top-40 win OOC... UConn over Florida by a point.

Actually they have 6- Pittsburgh, So Miss, Florida, Oklahoma St, Gonzaga, and St Joe's(by Temple!) plus a win over 51 Harvard. So could easily get up to 7 here when all is said and done.

By comparison we have 11 top 50 wins. Our Problem if you will though- our 1-3 teams have 7 of those 11 wins. And Georgetown who has done the worst possible just about in conference has 3 of them as well. So 4-6- the bubble teams- have only 1 of those wins. Meanwhile, their 4th and 5th teams UConn and Memphis have had for UConn beating Florida and for Memphis 2 top 50 wins(and a top 25 win). The right teams for them are on the proverbial bubble. The 2 that did the least OOC have done a lot in conference to help themselves out.

AS far as Louisville. Their SOS will go up from 95 to 81 just in these last 2 games this week. Then next week, they could go up even more.

Sorry, Steve, but I don't see the problem. Louisville and Cincy can establish their credentials in conference but our bubble teams can't?

The fact is that our only bubble team right now is Providence and they can point to a top ten win over Creighton, something no AAC team can do except UConn.

If any of our other 5-7 teams can get on the bubble, they're going to have to mount a run over the next 10 days which will include some upsets. If Georgetown is the one to do that, they'll be able to point to plenty of top 50 wins. If it's Marquette, they'll be able to point to a top 40 win over GW. If, it's St. John's, they're going to have to beat someone in the top ten to get there.

Regardless of their conference standings SMU is the only AAC team with a chance of falling to the bubble and if they do, they won't be able to point to a significant win OOC either

[stever20]

If you look closer at the American, it looks like UConn is carrying the AAC's water.
The top 5 in the AAC basically point around in a vicious-circle at each other when they need to point out their significant wins. OOC the AAC isn't impressive. In conference, the 5 of them are handed 10 free wins from the 5 wimps on the bottom. RPI-wise, UConn is the only one with an impressive win OOC.

so OOC:

SMU:
best wins:
113 Texas A&M.
114 Wyoming.
136 Sam Houston.
losses to:
10 Virginia.
58 Arkansas.

Louisville:
best wins:
40 Southern Mississippi.
97 Missouri State.
127 UL-Lafayette.
losses to:
18 Kentucky.
21 UNC.

Memphis:
best wins:
44 Oklahoma State.
64 LSU.
168 Ark-Little Rock.
losses to:
3 Florida.
44 Oklahoma State again.

Cincinnati:
best wins:
45 Pitt.
55 Nebraska.
67 Middle Tennessee State.
76 NC State.
losses to:
14 New Mexico.
37 Xavier. <---by 20 pts.

Connecticut: <--- best OOC results for the AAC.
best wins:
3 Florida.
51 Harvard.
73 Maryland.
79 Indiana.
80 Washington.
losses to:
42 Stanford.

then in conference the vicious-circle starts:
SMU: "we beat UConn twice, plus Memphis and Cincinnati."
Louisville: "we beat UConn, Cincinnati and SMU."
Memphis: "we beat Louisville twice."
Cincinnati: "we beat Louisville, SMU, UConn and Memphis."
UConn: "we beat Memphis twice, plus Cincinnati."

Look at Louisville's results... totally undeserving of being ranked 10th or whatever they are.

The AAC as a total conference combined has only 4 Top-50 wins OOC, and only ONE Top-40 win OOC... UConn over Florida by a point.

Actually they have 6- Pittsburgh, So Miss, Florida, Oklahoma St, Gonzaga, and St Joe's(by Temple!) plus a win over 51 Harvard. So could easily get up to 7 here when all is said and done.

By comparison we have 11 top 50 wins. Our Problem if you will though- our 1-3 teams have 7 of those 11 wins. And Georgetown who has done the worst possible just about in conference has 3 of them as well. So 4-6- the bubble teams- have only 1 of those wins. Meanwhile, their 4th and 5th teams UConn and Memphis have had for UConn beating Florida and for Memphis 2 top 50 wins(and a top 25 win). The right teams for them are on the proverbial bubble. The 2 that did the least OOC have done a lot in conference to help themselves out.

AS far as Louisville. Their SOS will go up from 95 to 81 just in these last 2 games this week. Then next week, they could go up even more.

Sorry, Steve, but I don't see the problem. Louisville and Cincy can establish their credentials in conference but our bubble teams can't?

The fact is that our only bubble team right now is Providence and they can point to a top ten win over Creighton, something no AAC team can do except UConn.

If any of our other 5-7 teams can get on the bubble, they're going to have to mount a run over the next 10 days which will include some upsets. If Georgetown is the one to do that, they'll be able to point to plenty of top 50 wins. If it's Marquette, they'll be able to point to a top 40 win over GW. If, it's St. John's, they're going to have to beat someone in the top ten to get there.

Regardless of their conference standings SMU is the only AAC team with a chance of falling to the bubble and if they do, they won't be able to point to a significant win OOC either

Louisville and Cincy have 4 and 5 top 50 wins each. Providence and St John's have only 2 and 1 each. Our bubble teams could have established their credentials in conference, but they failed to do so. Against the 3 top 50 BE teams-
Providence: 2-3
St John's: 1-5

Meanwhile vs AAC top 50 teams
Cincy who had a top 50 win OOC: 4-3
Louisville who also had a top 50 win OOC: 3-3

Also not sure what you are talking about other 5-7 teams. Seton Hall, Butler, and DePaul aren't getting on any bubble other than maybe the NIT. With 3 in presumably(though think Xavier needs 1 more win any place), that leaves 4 teams.

Right now- imagine how different Marquette or Providence would look like with just a win over say New Mexico or UMass respectively. BOTH of them would be looking very likely tourney bound right now. The AAC is lucky the 2 teams that haven't done great in conference(still with 11 wins) are the ones who did a lot OOC.

SMU is at a point now where they are almost a lock to get in. They can't take another bad loss because they won't play another bad team. They were 29th in the bracket matrix on Saturday- and with playing Louisville, Memphis, and then one of the big 5- that's not going to dock them 20 spots and knock them out, even if they lost all 3. They're just playing for seeding now.

[Bill Marsh]

Actually they have 6- Pittsburgh, So Miss, Florida, Oklahoma St, Gonzaga, and St Joe's(by Temple!) plus a win over 51 Harvard. So could easily get up to 7 here when all is said and done.

By comparison we have 11 top 50 wins. Our Problem if you will though- our 1-3 teams have 7 of those 11 wins. And Georgetown who has done the worst possible just about in conference has 3 of them as well. So 4-6- the bubble teams- have only 1 of those wins. Meanwhile, their 4th and 5th teams UConn and Memphis have had for UConn beating Florida and for Memphis 2 top 50 wins(and a top 25 win). The right teams for them are on the proverbial bubble. The 2 that did the least OOC have done a lot in conference to help themselves out.

AS far as Louisville. Their SOS will go up from 95 to 81 just in these last 2 games this week. Then next week, they could go up even more.

Sorry, Steve, but I don't see the problem. Louisville and Cincy can establish their credentials in conference but our bubble teams can't?

The fact is that our only bubble team right now is Providence and they can point to a top ten win over Creighton, something no AAC team can do except UConn.

If any of our other 5-7 teams can get on the bubble, they're going to have to mount a run over the next 10 days which will include some upsets. If Georgetown is the one to do that, they'll be able to point to plenty of top 50 wins. If it's Marquette, they'll be able to point to a top 40 win over GW. If, it's St. John's, they're going to have to beat someone in the top ten to get there.

Regardless of their conference standings SMU is the only AAC team with a chance of falling to the bubble and if they do, they won't be able to point to a significant win OOC either

Louisville and Cincy have 4 and 5 top 50 wins each. Providence and St John's have only 2 and 1 each. Our bubble teams could have established their credentials in conference, but they failed to do so. Against the 3 top 50 BE teams-
Providence: 2-3
St John's: 1-5

Meanwhile vs AAC top 50 teams
Cincy who had a top 50 win OOC: 4-3
Louisville who also had a top 50 win OOC: 3-3

Also not sure what you are talking about other 5-7 teams. Seton Hall, Butler, and DePaul aren't getting on any bubble other than maybe the NIT. With 3 in presumably(though think Xavier needs 1 more win any place), that leaves 4 teams.

Right now- imagine how different Marquette or Providence would look like with just a win over say New Mexico or UMass respectively. BOTH of them would be looking very likely tourney bound right now. The AAC is lucky the 2 teams that haven't done great in conference(still with 11 wins) are the ones who did a lot OOC.

SMU is at a point now where they are almost a lock to get in. They can't take another bad loss because they won't play another bad team. They were 29th in the bracket matrix on Saturday- and with playing Louisville, Memphis, and then one of the big 5- that's not going to dock them 20 spots and knock them out, even if they lost all 3. They're just playing for seeding now.

Steve, why are you comparing Louisville and Cincy to PC and at. John's what's the point?

What difference does it make whether PC and SJU established their credentials OOC? Obviously if they had more wins of almost any sort, they wouldn't be on the bubble.

I was referring to 5-7, the same way you had referred to 4-6, I.e. conference standings, I.e. Matquette, St. John's, and Georgetown. I mentioned 5-7 immediately after my comment about PC.

I'm not looking at what might have been, I'm looking at what is. Regardless where the wins come from in conference or out they all count. The fact that our bubble teams don't have many big OOC wins doesn't matter. Frankly top 50 wins don't matter the way they've been discussed here. The total body of work matters. Top 100 wins matter. SOS matters.

SMU is not a lock. If they lose out, which they easily could do, their RPI becomes "fringe bubble", as you described St. John's in one conversation, with an expected RPI of 55.6.

[stever20]

Bill you are right- it doesn't matter where they come from they all count. SMU's 4 top 50 wins aren't going to get discounted because they're all conference.

Top 50 wins matters because it shows you can beat tourney bound teams. Right now SMU having 4 while PC has only 2 or St John's only 1 is huge. That's probably the thing that hurts ST John's the most- and PC almost as much.

SMU's SOS is going to go up big time this week. from 124 to 106. And next week, it'll go up into the top 100.

[Bill Marsh]

not sure how reasonable it is to think that...

Providence does something they haven't done since 2007 and beat Marquette.

Steve, still saying that it was unreasonable for me to pick Providence over Marquette?

Go, Friars!