Bubble Watch

[stever20]

what is amazing- and Stevens even alluded to it- how much easier it would be right now for the bracketologists if Tulsa had beaten SE Oklahoma St. Basically inferring that they'd be a lock right now. 22-8 vs D1 with a 41 RPI and top 100 SOS. Yeah that would be pretty safe I would say.

Ouch- this tweet from Stevens:
If Tulsa got an at-large, it might be the 2nd-luckiest thing to happen to Frank Haith. No. 1 is not having to coach Missouri this season.

[stever20]

1 thing interesting- Dance Card right now has Tulsa in the tourney.

It'll be interesting if Tulsa makes it what changes they make to the RPI.

[stever20]

bubble is going to be huge SMU fans tomorrow, just like they're huge San Diego St fans this evening.

[Bill Marsh]

1 thing interesting- Dance Card right now has Tulsa in the tourney.

It'll be interesting if Tulsa makes it what changes they make to the RPI.

Agree that the Tulsa decision is an interesting topic. Heck, it's kept us talking for weeks.

But Dance card has them in? I thought you didn't like Dance Card.

[stever20]

1 thing interesting- Dance Card right now has Tulsa in the tourney.

It'll be interesting if Tulsa makes it what changes they make to the RPI.

Agree that the Tulsa decision is an interesting topic. Heck, it's kept us talking for weeks.

But Dance card has them in? I thought you didn't like Dance Card.

It's remarkable that something that uses the old metric can be so accurate. But you can't argue it's success rate.

[Bill Marsh]

Wyoming steals the Mountain West bid, squeezing the bubble a little tighter.

[stever20]

just looking at the RPI....
looks like there are 18 teams that will have auto bids with RPI's 52 or lower with autobids.

so top 50 RPI "should" get in.

I see 3 teams in the RPI top 50 that won't get in...
45 Tulsa
46 Old Dominion
48 UCLA

The 3 getting in from outside the top 50-
Purdue 54
Ole Miss 56
LSU 57
(wouldn't be shocked if any of these teams get left out for one of those 3 in the top 50, probably UCLA 1st you would think).
- Indiana btw is #60 for what it's worth!

Now comparing to the Ken Pom top 50-
teams getting left out-
#41 UCLA
#45 Florida
#46 Vandy
#48 Stanford
#50 Texas A&M

others on the bubble that could get left out-
#19 Texas
#32 Davidson
#37 Oklahoma St
#40 Boise St
#43 LSU
#44 Ole Miss

Teams outside top 50 ken pom that could easily get in-
#56 Temple
#68 Colorado St

will be interesting to see if the advanced metrics crowd wins out this year- because there's a ton of those teams on the bubble this year.

[Bill Marsh]

I don't get why there's no love for UCLA and Temple. I understand Colorado State, but still an RPI rank of 30 is nothing to be taken lightly.

I like Purdue and Ole Miss from outside the RPI top 50, but one of them will be in trouble if UConn wins today.

[stever20]

I don't get why there's no love for UCLA and Temple. I understand Colorado State, but still an RPI rank of 30 is nothing to be taken lightly.

I like Purdue and Ole Miss from outside the RPI top 50, but one of them will be in trouble if UConn wins today.

For UCLA- they beat absolutely no one OOC. Well, actually 2 tourney teams- Coastal Carolina and UAB. Outside of that, they didn't beat a single team with a winning record OOC. 4-12 away from home. 3 sub 100 RPI losses. all and all- not a good resume at all. 48 RPI. 26 SOS/59 OOC SOS

For Temple- They have 3 RPI top 100 wins in Kansas , La Tech, and La Salle OOC. 9-8 away from home, which isn't bad. 2 sub 100 RPI losses. 34 RPI. 54 SOS/46 OOC SOS.

I think Colorado St gets in. Have 3 RPI top 100 OOC wins which is big(plus 103). 12-5 away from home. only 1 sub 100 loss. 30 RPI, 111 SOS/76 OOC SOS.

[gosports1]

i just checked out bracketology on ESPN and there is a mistakr. St Johns is no where to be found. It has the BE at 5 although on bubble watch it has BE firmly with 6. WTF?