Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Would ESPN lean on the Big 12 to accept UConn as a potential expansion member? – San Antonio News - May 18, 2016

Informed speculation, but Intriguing and well worth a read.
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President Herbst's Letter To Big 12: UConn Has 'Strong Interest' In Joining – The Hartford Courant – August 24, 2016

In case anyone still had a doubt about UConn's athletic intentions, a letter from school President Susan Herbst to Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby confirms the state university very much wants to be part of the Power Five conference.

"I am expressing our strong interest in membership in the Big 12 Conference," Herbst wrote in a letter to Bowlsby dated July 25 and marked confidential.

"I look forward to meeting with you and other Big 12 officials to fully discuss our athletic and academic success. We are prepared to learn more about your criteria for evaluating potential members and to answer any questions pertaining to our commitment and ability to join the Big 12."

The letter was released by the school in a response to a Freedom of Information Act request by The Courant and other news organizations about any correspondence between UConn and the Big 12.

It’s hard for public schools to keep a lid on anything.
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Is a Move to the Big 12 in UConn's Future? – WPNR Connecticut – August 24, 2016

Last week, the Big 12 tipped their hand - just a little. Only two schools - the University of Houston and the University of Connecticut were contacted directly by Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby with directions on how to formally apply for membership.

Bad news for the Bearcats, but great news for UConn fans, who now have good reason to believe that UConn is in second place on the list of 20 schools seeking admission to the Big 12. This certainly doesn’t mean that Houston and UConn will become members of the Big 12, but it can reasonably be construed that they have a legitimate reason for optimism.

The biggest obstacle to Big 12 expansion remains the public refusal of ESPN and Fox Sports to pay an additional $ 20 million per expansion school per year for schools not coming from a P5 conference. If ESPN/Fox stick to this position, the Big 12 will either have to accept less $ 20 million per expansion school per year, or take ESPN and Fox Sports to court.

If the Big 12 accepts less than $ 20 million per expansion school per year, it will reduce the average annual payment to each Big 12 school to less than its present $ 20 million per year, and it’s hard to believe that eight out of ten Big 12 Presidents would vote to reduce their universities’ annual revenue, solely to benefit two schools that are not presently in the Big 12 Conference.

If the Big 12 takes ESPN and Fox Sports to court and loses, the consequences are not predictable, but the worse-case scenario would be the Big 12 being stuck with two expansion teams and receiving no additional revenue from ESPN and Fox Sports for doing so. The outcome of a Breach of Contract case with unusual circumstance is frequently a throw of the dice.
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Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN - July 20, 2016

BYU & Houston (5 votes each) top @ESPN poll of Big 12 coaches on expansion. Next: Cincinnati, Memphis (4 votes each); CSU, UCF (1 vote each)

Hat off to Bill Marsh, who called it first: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5316&start=480#p79898

I have to agree that BYU would appear to be dead in the water as a Big XII expansion candidate. I also agree that the reports that Fox and ESPN are balking at coming up with more money is a game changer. I think we will see some interesting developments, possibly some real surprises.

Specifically, the implications are that TV will determine who the expansion schools will be just as they did with ACC expansion. I believe that in the end, the networks will come up with the dollars but only if they control who the additions are. As a result, throw all previous rumors out the window. It won't be who the Big XII presidents want. If they want expansion, it will be who the networks want and they only care about one thing: markets.

With BYU appearing to be out of the picture, here are the markets of the prospective candidates, ranked by market size:

1. 6.6 mill - Houston
2. 3.7 mill - Connecticut
3. 3.0 mill - USF (Tampa)
4. 2.4 mill - UCF (Orlando)
5. 2.2 mill - Cincinnati
6. 1.3 mill - Memphis

Houston is easily the most desirable market, but will the networks want UH? There's already competition in that market from A&M as well as from the NFL. With that kind of competition, does UH really bring anything more than the league already has from Longhorn fans in Houston? Suddenly the market looks a lot less valuable.

The networks don't care about travel distance for student athletes, so I think that UConn may become the #1 target. The stature of their football program is the major drawback and that's not a small thing, but the networks have watched them successfully build their basketball program over the past 25 years. They can do the same thing in football. Better opponents will bring attendance back to where it was in Big East days and beyond. The stadium is expandable and facilities are excellent. I think the market of 3.7 million, which is wealthy and which has no instate competition from either another college or from the pros, will just be too tempting.

Let's assume for the moment that I'm right about UConn. This could set off a really interesting chain of events. With a Big XII offer in their pocket, UConn could try to leverage that into an ACC or B1G offer. Both conferences have had their eye on UConn as a future possibility. Would either accelerate their time line and make a pre-emptive move to prevent the Big XII from locking them up? It could get interesting.

Cincinnati is another interesting case since they've been the leader all along. As much as they have going for them, they have one of the smallest markets on the list - and unlike UCF, they have competition in town from the NFL. Although they get the Big XII into Ohio, it's really only into a corner of Ohio with a school that doesn't have statewide appeal in a state that is dominated by Ohio State. And despite upgraded facilities, their stadium isn't expandable due to the lack of real estate. I have a feeling that their bloom could come off their rose pretty quickly.

If UConn does become a member of the Big 12, it will be a clear indication that ESPN has greater clout than the Big 12 football coaches - none of whom cast a single vote for UConn in ESPN's July 20th poll.

[DudeAnon]

Fieldhouse Flyer, everything I have read recently tells me it is going to be BYU and Cincy. Remember, as you have pointed out, the money is in football. BYU and Cincy have the best historically football programs available. Period.

[_lh]

Fieldhouse Flyer, everything I have read recently tells me it is going to be BYU and Cincy. Remember, as you have pointed out, the money is in football. BYU and Cincy have the best historically football programs available. Period.

I think Houston makes more sense than UC. UC had a nice three year run in the old BE but did nothing for decades prior and has fallen off significantly in the last 4 years or so.

[DudeAnon]

Fieldhouse Flyer, everything I have read recently tells me it is going to be BYU and Cincy. Remember, as you have pointed out, the money is in football. BYU and Cincy have the best historically football programs available. Period.

I think Houston makes more sense than UC. UC had a nice three year run in the old BE but did nothing for decades prior and has fallen off significantly in the last 4 years or so.

They have always been solid and that nice run you mention resulted in a trip to the Sugar Bowl vs Florida. That being said, Houston football isn't bad.

[_lh]

Fieldhouse Flyer, everything I have read recently tells me it is going to be BYU and Cincy. Remember, as you have pointed out, the money is in football. BYU and Cincy have the best historically football programs available. Period.

I think Houston makes more sense than UC. UC had a nice three year run in the old BE but did nothing for decades prior and has fallen off significantly in the last 4 years or so.

They have always been solid and that nice run you mention resulted in a trip to the Sugar Bowl vs Florida. That being said, Houston football isn't bad.

I don't know about being solid. I have lived in greater Cincinnati most of my life and I can remember not too long ago that they made UC basketball season ticket holders buy football tickets because football was mediocre and no one cared about it. They did have a nice three year run though in a very weak BE.

[Xudash]

Fieldhouse Flyer, everything I have read recently tells me it is going to be BYU and Cincy. Remember, as you have pointed out, the money is in football. BYU and Cincy have the best historically football programs available. Period.

I think Houston makes more sense than UC. UC had a nice three year run in the old BE but did nothing for decades prior and has fallen off significantly in the last 4 years or so.

They have always been solid and that nice run you mention resulted in a trip to the Sugar Bowl vs Florida. That being said, Houston football isn't bad.

They left that trip on LifeFlight. The Gators destroyed them that game.

[DudeAnon]

They have always been solid and that nice run you mention resulted in a trip to the Sugar Bowl vs Florida. That being said, Houston football isn't bad.

They left that trip on LifeFlight. The Gators destroyed them that game.[/quote]

The coward Brian Kelley quit at the last game of the season. So they had no head coach to prepare for the bowl game.

[_lh]

They have always been solid and that nice run you mention resulted in a trip to the Sugar Bowl vs Florida. That being said, Houston football isn't bad.

They left that trip on LifeFlight. The Gators destroyed them that game.

The coward Brian Kelley quit at the last game of the season. So they had no head coach to prepare for the bowl game.[/quote]

It would not have mattered anyway. UC was overrated that year playing against some weak BE teams. UCONN dropped 45 points on UC that year for crying out loud.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Big 12 Expansion: Money Grab or Power Play? – SB Nation – August 24, 2016

Put simply: Big 12 expansion is a money grab, and a naked one at that.

The revenues are hard to look away from: if the Big 12 adds two teams, ESPN and Fox will be forced to pay out a combined $40 million. Four teams would mean an additional $80 million for Big 12 schools.

Any team who joins can expect only to gain a portion of that TV money, with the lion’s share going to the Big 12’s 10 extant teams. Teams like BYU, Houston, Cincinnati, and Connecticut may see that as a small price to pay for access to a ‘Power 5’ conference.

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Everything I have read recently tells me it is going to be BYU and Cincy.

On July 21st, Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared on Twitter that Big 12 expansion was a "non-starter" without UH. Believe him.

Governor Abbott has effective control over the votes of 4 of the 10 schools who will be voting on Big 12 expansion. Eight 'yes' votes are needed to add a team to the Big 12, so Governor Abbott can easily veto any proposal which does not include Houston, and he has publicly declared he would do so.
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Big 12 expansion update: What the next step is after interviews; which three schools are getting the most attention? – Dallas News – August 26, 2016

Sources say the most probable scenario was for the conference adding two schools, although a group is still open to expanding by four. Either option is seen as more likely than choosing to stay at the current 10.

BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati are mentioned, but not UConn. BYU’s Honor Code remains an unsolved problem. There’s still a lot of politickin’, horse-tradin', and arm-twistin' left to go before this plays out.

[ArmyVet]

I'm a little surprised that Memphis doesn't seem to be higher on their list. I think there's a lot of potential for both hoops and football and the geographic location works as well.