Bubble Watch

[stever20]

I will be very shocked if X does not handle UC. The bearcats had 10 turnovers in the first 6 minutes of the game last night and was only trailing SMU by 3 points at SMU. The American is just a dumpster fire right now.

a dumpster fire that could easily get 4 teams in the tourney. They are very well positioned right now. Tulsa and SMU have 2 and 1 games left respectively that would be RPI killers if they lost. Cincy has 5 left- but that means they have a real easy schedule left. Temple has 3 left. Oh and as a possible extra chip- UConn hosts the conference tourney. The AAC has had with a few exceptions almost a perfect month with teams they've wanted to win actually winning.

The one conference that I'd say is more of a dumpster fire is the A10. They've had the upset losses that folks here have been hoping would happen to the AAC.

I looked up "dumpster fire" in the dictionary, and this is what I came up with:

RPI Rankings

179. Tulane
213. Central Florida
230. South Florida
242. Houston
251. East Carolina

no dumpster fire is the A10....
172 St Joseph's
185 George Mason
223 Saint Louis
252 Fordham
257 Duquesne

The AAC at least has 4 teams that could easily make the tourney. The A10 may struggle to get 2 in. Compare the top teams
A10- VCU 9, Dayton 38, GW 48, UMass 52, RI 63
AAC Cincy 23, SMU 27, Tulsa 35, Temple 41, Memphis 80

A10 has VCU yes, but after that, not much. That's the big difference between the 2 conferences, and something that isn't going to change.

[stever20]

Unless Dayton beats VCU at some point this year they have a very high chance of getting SMU'ed. That resume is super flimsy.

not really. Dayton has 1 bad loss, to UConn- and end of the year that might not even be a sub-100 loss.. 2 good wins vs Texas A&M(RPI 32) and Ole Miss(RPI 42). What killed SMU was 2 absolutely dreadful losses- USF and Temple. Houston a bit less so but still that as well.

[xman]

Unless Dayton beats VCU at some point this year they have a very high chance of getting SMU'ed. That resume is super flimsy.

not really. Dayton has 1 bad loss, to UConn- and end of the year that might not even be a sub-100 loss.. 2 good wins vs Texas A&M(RPI 32) and Ole Miss(RPI 42). What killed SMU was 2 absolutely dreadful losses- USF and Temple. Houston a bit less so but still that as well.

And UD has basically no good wins. They're a figment of the RPI. If you took out that made up metric and just looked at resume, no way they are in. And yes, I think XU is potentially on the wrong side of the bubble and must win.

[stever20]

Unless Dayton beats VCU at some point this year they have a very high chance of getting SMU'ed. That resume is super flimsy.

not really. Dayton has 1 bad loss, to UConn- and end of the year that might not even be a sub-100 loss.. 2 good wins vs Texas A&M(RPI 32) and Ole Miss(RPI 42). What killed SMU was 2 absolutely dreadful losses- USF and Temple. Houston a bit less so but still that as well.

And UD has basically no good wins. They're a figment of the RPI. If you took out that made up metric and just looked at resume, no way they are in. And yes, I think XU is potentially on the wrong side of the bubble and must win.

But the fact is you can't just take out the RPI, it is around. Also they do have the 2 OOC wins vs bubble teams which will serve them very well. 6-4 vs RPI top 100 and 5-5 away from home. 1 loss to UConn outside the top 100.

[Omaha1]

And St. Bonnie beats VCU today. I know they'll probably get 2 teams in, but the A-10 sures feel like a one bid team just the way the Valley was when Creighton controlled it.

[DudeAnon]

RPI Rankings

179. Tulane
213. Central Florida
230. South Florida
242. Houston
251. East Carolina

no dumpster fire is the A10....
172 St Joseph's
185 George Mason
223 Saint Louis
252 Fordham
257 Duquesne

The AAC at least has 4 teams that could easily make the tourney. The A10 may struggle to get 2 in. Compare the top teams
A10- VCU 9, Dayton 38, GW 48, UMass 52, RI 63
AAC Cincy 23, SMU 27, Tulsa 35, Temple 41, Memphis 80

A10 has VCU yes, but after that, not much. That's the big difference between the 2 conferences, and something that isn't going to change.

Those numbers are almost the exact same yet the A 10 is the dumpster fire?

[ta111]

Unless Dayton beats VCU at some point this year they have a very high chance of getting SMU'ed. That resume is super flimsy.

not really. Dayton has 1 bad loss, to UConn- and end of the year that might not even be a sub-100 loss.. 2 good wins vs Texas A&M(RPI 32) and Ole Miss(RPI 42). What killed SMU was 2 absolutely dreadful losses- USF and Temple. Houston a bit less so but still that as well.

What killed SMU was several bad losses AND a horrendous OOC SOS. The committee even addressed this. They will punish you for playing a weak OOC. Dayton and last year's SMU have nothing in common. Dayton played a much tougher OOC and has no bad losses.

[Bill Marsh]

They are very well positioned right now. Tulsa and SMU have 2 and 1 games left respectively that would be RPI killers if they lost. Cincy has 5 left- but that means they have a real easy schedule left. Temple has 3 left. Oh and as a possible extra chip- UConn hosts the conference tourney. The AAC has had with a few exceptions almost a perfect month with teams they've wanted to win actually winning.

The one conference that I'd say is more of a dumpster fire is the A10. They've had the upset losses that folks here have been hoping would happen to the AAC.

I looked up "dumpster fire" in the dictionary, and this is what I came up with:

RPI Rankings

179. Tulane
213. Central Florida
230. South Florida
242. Houston
251. East Carolina

no dumpster fire is the A10....
172 St Joseph's
185 George Mason
223 Saint Louis
252 Fordham
257 Duquesne

The AAC at least has 4 teams that could easily make the tourney. The A10 may struggle to get 2 in. Compare the top teams
A10- VCU 9, Dayton 38, GW 48, UMass 52, RI 63
AAC Cincy 23, SMU 27, Tulsa 35, Temple 41, Memphis 80

A10 has VCU yes, but after that, not much. That's the big difference between the 2 conferences, and something that isn't going to change.

Why are you bringing the A10 into the conversation? What have they got to do with the AAC?

The AAC has FOUR teams who could EASILY make the tournament? AT LEAST? Who are you kidding.

Temple is a bubble team. If they make the tournament, it's not going to be easy. Nice win today. They're going to need more like that and will need to avoid bad losses

If UConn is able to capitalize on home court advantage and win the auto bid, that won't be easy either - even with home court advantage. They'll likely have to win 4 games in 4 days and beat 3 of the conference' stop 4 teams to accomplish that. Not easy.

[Bill Marsh]

RPI Rankings

179. Tulane
213. Central Florida
230. South Florida
242. Houston
251. East Carolina

no dumpster fire is the A10....
172 St Joseph's
185 George Mason
223 Saint Louis
252 Fordham
257 Duquesne

The AAC at least has 4 teams that could easily make the tourney. The A10 may struggle to get 2 in. Compare the top teams
A10- VCU 9, Dayton 38, GW 48, UMass 52, RI 63
AAC Cincy 23, SMU 27, Tulsa 35, Temple 41, Memphis 80

A10 has VCU yes, but after that, not much. That's the big difference between the 2 conferences, and something that isn't going to change.

Those numbers are almost the exact same yet the A 10 is the dumpster fire?

The difference that Stever doesn't mention is that the A10 has 14 teams and the AAC has 11. Do the math.

AAC = 45% @ RPI over 175 and 36% over 200
A10 = 36% @ RPI over 170 and 21% over 200

Big difference.

[Gopher+RamFan]

And St. Bonnie beats VCU today. I know they'll probably get 2 teams in, but the A-10 sures feel like a one bid team just the way the Valley was when Creighton controlled it.

VCU is a virtual lock, Dayton is probably in. Who knows about GW.

VCU is playing without their 2 all league seniors who lead the team in: Points, Rebounds, Assists and Steals. The team is now 8 underclassmen, 1 junior and a senior who sits at the end of the bench. The leading scorer may be back in a week or two.

VCU may falter in the conference tournament, giving the A10 a 3rd or 4th bid, depending.