Bracketology - January 26, 2015

[milksteak]

Anyone else think Westbrook#36 is a tool?

[stever20]

As W36 stated ... VCU is the kind of team that Nova loves to play. I can tell you that the overly-athletic-yet-a-bit-undisciplined teams (VCU, SJU, etc.) are the ones that we just seem to match up really well against. That "havoc" gimmick gets exposed by the good teams (UVA, Nova). After Rd 1 inthe tourney these are the kinds of teams that you'll need to beat and I just don't see it happening. FWIW, our PG, over 40 minutes of "Havoc" had ZERO turnovers. Didn't UVA (who averages in the 60's) put up 75 or so against you guys? Teams like Creighton last year or Gtwn this year that have a very definitive and disciplined style, and can hit 3's in bunches, are the ones that usually give Nova fits. Certainly not teams like VCU.

VCU might be looking better to you in your eyes because they are beating up on the St. Joe's and LaSalle's of the world. Yeah we beat those guys by 20+ too, just like we did to you guys. Big deal. If VCU was in the BE I would expect that you'd be right around .500 just like SHU or DePaul. 5th/6th place seems about right from what I've seen. Maybe 10-8, 11-7 at best. VCU would make the tourney as an 8-10 seed.

Except that the teams you mention- UVA, Nova- are top 1-2 seeds. VCU won't see them in rd 2 at all. Maybe when you get to the sweet 16 yes that's the case... But definitely not in the 2nd round. They'll get a 5 or 6 seed in the 2nd round(unless an upset and then a 11 or 12 seed). None of those 4 would be equal to UVA or Nova.

[Westbrook#36]

Anyone else think Westbrook#36 is a tool?

Use an unoriginal, insipid, generic insult calling someone else a tool, how ironic.

[Westbrook#36]

Villanova relies on the 3 pointer too much, and the biggest improvement in our half-court defense is closing out on shooters. So you can try to beat us inside all you want, it won't be enough to win the game.

We don't have an over reliance on 3's this year if you've watched more than one or two of our games. We can still shoot it, but we're much more about getting it inside to Ochefu and Pinkston or driving to the hoop and getting to the line. But I guess you'll disagree with than also, whatever, tell yourself whatever you what to believe, Nova isn't a good match-up for VCU.

[DudeAnon]

So what gives? Xavier is 28 in RPI and a 10 seed by Lunardi. Shouldn't a 28 put us at the 7 seed?

Lunardi has always dissed the A10 in his bracket seeding, and continues to do so with former A10 teams. Butler, seeded 6th in his Bracketology, should be 4 based on Butler's RPI. Both 'Nova and Seton Hall are seeded consistently with their RPI's, while Providence and Georgetown are also "under-seeded". But the largest "error" is for the two former A10 teams.

Butler and Xavier have a lot of losses. RPI is not a hard fast thing especially with seedings.

I think Xavier is hurt as well by their road struggles. Unless they can win more road games, they are going to be underseeded.

and I would look at the Bracket Matrix-
Butler avg right now is 5.36
Xavier right now is a 9.60

So Lunardi having them at a 6 and 10- he's hardly alone.

I would just like an easy to understand metric for this stuff. If not RPI, what is it? Doesn't RPI give more credit to road wins? If so, then Xavier's RPI isn't inflated by their poor road schedule, right?

[Xudash]

Villanova relies on the 3 pointer too much, and the biggest improvement in our half-court defense is closing out on shooters. So you can try to beat us inside all you want, it won't be enough to win the game.

We don't have an over reliance on 3's this year if you've watched more than one or two of our games. We can still shoot it, but we're much more about getting it inside to Ochefu and Pinkston or driving to the hoop and getting to the line. But I guess you'll disagree with than also, whatever, tell yourself whatever you what to believe, Nova isn't a good match-up for VCU.

Nova isn't a good matchup for anyone. Experience, speed and talent kills. It's that first thing that sticks out in my mind with Nova at this point; there seems to be a core nucleus of that team that has played together for a while now. Nova, to me, turns it into somewhat of a "pick your poison" proposition.

Also, I think there was a rebuttal along the way that went something like Nova got drubbed by the Hoyas and the Hoyas just lost to Xavier. Never thought much of that connective logic in basketball. Besides, getting back to one of the key points here - the Big East being so much better than the A10 - perhaps VCU could schedule Nova, Georgetown and Xavier next year to see how all that would work out.

[lquarles]

Villanova relies on the 3 pointer too much, and the biggest improvement in our half-court defense is closing out on shooters. So you can try to beat us inside all you want, it won't be enough to win the game.

We don't have an over reliance on 3's this year if you've watched more than one or two of our games. We can still shoot it, but we're much more about getting it inside to Ochefu and Pinkston or driving to the hoop and getting to the line. But I guess you'll disagree with than also, whatever, tell yourself whatever you what to believe, Nova isn't a good match-up for VCU.

Villanova's 3-point attempts in their last 7 games:

Creighton: 26
Georgetown: 23
Pennsylvania: 18
Xavier: 34!
DePaul: 29
St. John's: 23
Seton Hall: 24

That's not over relying?

[Westbrook#36]

We don't have an over reliance on 3's this year if you've watched more than one or two of our games. We can still shoot it, but we're much more about getting it inside to Ochefu and Pinkston or driving to the hoop and getting to the line. But I guess you'll disagree with than also, whatever, tell yourself whatever you what to believe, Nova isn't a good match-up for VCU.

Nova isn't a good matchup for anyone. Experience, speed and talent kills. It's that first thing that sticks out in my mind with Nova at this point; there seems to be a core nucleus of that team that has played together for a while now. Nova, to me, turns it into somewhat of a "pick your poison" proposition.

I think Kentucky would beg to differ, also Louisville over the years has given us fits as well. But long athletic teams give even long athletic teams fits.

[Xudash]

We don't have an over reliance on 3's this year if you've watched more than one or two of our games. We can still shoot it, but we're much more about getting it inside to Ochefu and Pinkston or driving to the hoop and getting to the line. But I guess you'll disagree with than also, whatever, tell yourself whatever you what to believe, Nova isn't a good match-up for VCU.

Nova isn't a good matchup for anyone. Experience, speed and talent kills. It's that first thing that sticks out in my mind with Nova at this point; there seems to be a core nucleus of that team that has played together for a while now. Nova, to me, turns it into somewhat of a "pick your poison" proposition.

I think Kentucky would beg to differ, also Louisville over the years has given us fits as well. But long athletic teams give even long athletic teams fits.

I wrote my response knowing Kentucky is out there. I get that they're not afraid of anyone, nor should they be. I see your experience as being a key asset to Nova this year. Getting into the heat of battle in the NCAA Tournament and with these guys knowing what to expect of each other can only help Nova's chances for advancing. Talent and experience can only help. As I acknowledge Nova as the Flagship of the BE this year, something that is foreign to a Xavier fan, I have to stick with my thought process!

[stever20]

RPI does give more credit to road wins, but doesn't punish for road losses as much.

let's look-
Butler- right now 15-6(.714) Home 10-1, road 3-3, neutral 2-2. RPI 14 SOS 7
Xavier- Right now 14-7(.667). Home 11-0, road 2-5, neutral 1-2. RPI 26 SOS 12

RPI own records- Butler 12.2-5.2(.701), Xavier 10.4-5(.675)

Part of Xavier's high RPI is they have no home losses. Those are big. Let's say for discussions sake they lost an extra home game, but won an extra road game...
Home 10-1 (6-1.4), road 3-4 (4.2-2.4), neutral 1-2. add that up and they are 11.2-5.8. (.659) .016 lower. That alone would be .004 in RPI lower. 2 spots in the RPI right now. However, the committee would be looking at Xavier a whole lot more favorably quite frankly because how you play away from home is factored in big time because that is where you play in the NCAA tourney.