Will Big 5 split from NCAA basketball?

[HoosierPal]

I think my thought is that the P5 won't get as much as the NCAA tourney, but they would get as much as the P5 alone gets right now.

Also right now the P5 gets barely over half the NCAA units- last year for instance the P5 got 69 units while the others got 59 units. 2013 P5 got 55 and others got 73. To think the P5 isn't going to want to make that a lot different I think is pure folly. to act like the P5 is going to just going to be fine with the status quo is pretty dubious.

I think the P5 probably keeps the tourney but they force a lot of money changes.

Stever you just put the exclamation point on this discussion. Less will be more. Case closed.

The P5 have all but eliminated the Cinderella story from football. No more Appalachian State v Michigan upsets will happen, as those games won't be scheduled. Even BYU, Utah State, Boise State, Fresno State and Navy are all, more or less, looking in at the P5 football tourney. For a non-P5 team to get a sniff of the football playoff, they would need two back to back undefeated seasons, with a heavy list OOC of P5 schools on the ledger.

As you said, at the end of current TV contract, look out.

[aughnanure]

Do you know how many less viewers there would be if they totally turn it upside down? Their tourney would need to be totally rebranded and renamed, it would take forever until it became a household name and people knew what it was, and it wouldn't have any cinderellas which is the key. The hype it garners now is why there are so many viewers and thus so much money. A totally different tournament with only P5 schools would not garner anywhere near the same hype. And there is just no way all these big name schools get left behind like Nova, G'Town, Marquette, UConn, Cincy, Memphis, etc.

This +100. They can't just kill it and then restart it and act like nothing happened. They're going to eliminate bracketology too and Selection Sunday? And it's not about the Cinderellas, it's about just a huge number of known basketball fan bases out there they'd be killing. Mississippi does not care about college basketball, so you're going to kill off Georgetown and Gaonzaga and Memphis fanbases in the hopes that Miss' will grow with a new format? Good luck with that.

Football IS different. They've always been separate from the NCAA, so there was never much a need to rebrand, everyone was finally excited to actually see bowl games that directly mattered. They're not stupid, and there's not much to really gain by cutting it down so much.

[SJHooper]

It's like a chef having the perfect recipe. For decades people have loved it and revered it. The perfect balance and perfect taste. Then out of nowhere the recipe is scrapped for a new one even though it was already beloved and making tons of money attracting even the President of the USA to participate? Don't see that happening.

As the poster above me said, you can't just kill off the Nova's, G'Town's, UConn's, Memphis', Gonzaga's of the college hoops world. They'd be losing the east coast (especially from DC up) which is one of the few regions that really loves college hoops and will pay $50+ to attend games. A lot of these SEC schools couldn't care less about hoops aside from Kentucky and Florida. Would you rather have USC/Georgia Tech/Miss St hoops or Villanova/UConn/Georgetown hoops? Not even close. By the way, saying cinderellas don't matter is just wrong. Ask anyone what the best part of the NCAA tourney is on the street and I guarantee that's a very popular answer: that Vermont can slay Cuse or George Mason reaching the Final Four.

There is a ton of greed in this world and a lot of nonsensical decisions made, but killing the NCAA tourney would be suicide. Not even they can be that crazy.

[HoosierPal]

Well I hope you guys are right, but I wouldn't bet a nickel that the tourney 10 years from now resembles anything like what we have today. Don't forget about the immense, and growing Big Ten Network, SEC Network, Longhorn Network, etc. and those that will be developed by the P5 in the upcoming years. They sell their tourney package for $50 a pop and bingo they don't need CBS's contract or the rest of us. I also think you are dismissing the INCREASE in viewers from the P5 schools that would be IN the tourney rather than out of today's tourney. These are huge schools, attendance wise, with huge alumni followings. What you subtract out from the 'non-P5' you add in others. And as Stever said, they won't need the same package as today as they won't have to divide it up with the conferences not in the brotherhood nor, possibly, the NCAA.

To think that the P5 really cares about tradition and us little guys, well I hope you are right and I am wrong. 10 years......

None of can forecast the future, but we all can have opinions and very few opinions are changed on boards such as this. And that is what makes it fun.

[stever20]

It's like a chef having the perfect recipe. For decades people have loved it and revered it. The perfect balance and perfect taste. Then out of nowhere the recipe is scrapped for a new one even though it was already beloved and making tons of money attracting even the President of the USA to participate? Don't see that happening.

As the poster above me said, you can't just kill off the Nova's, G'Town's, UConn's, Memphis', Gonzaga's of the college hoops world. They'd be losing the east coast (especially from DC up) which is one of the few regions that really loves college hoops and will pay $50+ to attend games. A lot of these SEC schools couldn't care less about hoops aside from Kentucky and Florida. Would you rather have USC/Georgia Tech/Miss St hoops or Villanova/UConn/Georgetown hoops? Not even close. By the way, saying cinderellas don't matter is just wrong. Ask anyone what the best part of the NCAA tourney is on the street and I guarantee that's a very popular answer: that Vermont can slay Cuse or George Mason reaching the Final Four.

There is a ton of greed in this world and a lot of nonsensical decisions made, but killing the NCAA tourney would be suicide. Not even they can be that crazy.

Unfortunately with how the P5 is- you just can't rule it out.

I think probably best case scenario- it remains as is on face value- but the $$$ changes making it where schools going further get more $$$. Where instead of only 128 units(worth 250k each right now), there would be 232 units worth about 138k. As you go further in the tournament, the more you get. A final 4 team would get instead of 5 units 15 units. Really hurting the smaller conferences- and probably making some drop down to D2 quite frankly(not the worst thing in the world).

[SJHooper]

Nova, G'Town, Marquette, Gonzaga, Memphis, UConn, Cincy, etc. are not "little guys". They have been central to NCAA basketball. These teams have championships…some have many (UConn). Also think about women's hoops. No UConn in women's hoops anymore? No way that happens. They are the Yankees of women's hoops.

The hype and ratings will never come close to what they are now in the present format if they change it and thus the money won't follow. I understand the paranoia given the P5 seemingly getting their every wish, but I think this is one area that is safe.

[marquette]

Well I hope you guys are right, but I wouldn't bet a nickel that the tourney 10 years from now resembles anything like what we have today. Don't forget about the immense, and growing Big Ten Network, SEC Network, Longhorn Network, etc. and those that will be developed by the P5 in the upcoming years. They sell their tourney package for $50 a pop and bingo they don't need CBS's contract or the rest of us. I also think you are dismissing the INCREASE in viewers from the P5 schools that would be IN the tourney rather than out of today's tourney. These are huge schools, attendance wise, with huge alumni followings. What you subtract out from the 'non-P5' you add in others. And as Stever said, they won't need the same package as today as they won't have to divide it up with the conferences not in the brotherhood nor, possibly, the NCAA.

To think that the P5 really cares about tradition and us little guys, well I hope you are right and I am wrong. 10 years......

None of can forecast the future, but we all can have opinions and very few opinions are changed on boards such as this. And that is what makes it fun.

First of all, sports networks have reached a near saturation point and people are no longer willing to pay the skyrocketing costs associated with them (not good for us, either, but worse for the P5). Second, there are as many fans interested in college basketball now as there will ever be. The only thing that happens when you drop off schools like those in the Big East, SLU, VCU, Dayton, Wichita State, Gonzaga, MWC, BYU, Memphis, UConn, Cinncy, Temple, etc is those fans are lost. There aren't magical fans out there who have no interest in the tourney as is, but will become interested when every school in it comes from the P5. There simply aren't. Half of the schools in the tourney are already from the P5. If you keep the tourney at 64, then you have 3-25 teams in there. That will wear thin on people pretty fast. If you change it to 32, then you have roughly the same number of P5 schools as you already had. No interest from others. Why take the risk of ruining something that works so well?

[billyjack]

It's like a chef having the perfect recipe. For decades people have loved it and revered it. The perfect balance and perfect taste. Then out of nowhere the recipe is scrapped for a new one even though it was already beloved and making tons of money attracting even the President of the USA to participate? Don't see that happening.

As the poster above me said, you can't just kill off the Nova's, G'Town's, UConn's, Memphis', Gonzaga's of the college hoops world. They'd be losing the east coast (especially from DC up) which is one of the few regions that really loves college hoops and will pay $50+ to attend games. A lot of these SEC schools couldn't care less about hoops aside from Kentucky and Florida. Would you rather have USC/Georgia Tech/Miss St hoops or Villanova/UConn/Georgetown hoops? Not even close. By the way, saying cinderellas don't matter is just wrong. Ask anyone what the best part of the NCAA tourney is on the street and I guarantee that's a very popular answer: that Vermont can slay Cuse or George Mason reaching the Final Four.

There is a ton of greed in this world and a lot of nonsensical decisions made, but killing the NCAA tourney would be suicide. Not even they can be that crazy.

Even if they were to change the tourney, it would have a shorter shelf-life than "New Coke" and the "McDLT"...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Coke

"New Coke was the reformulation of Coca-Cola introduced in 1985 by The Coca-Cola Company to replace the original formula of its flagship soft drink, Coca-Cola (also called Coke). New Coke originally had no separate name of its own, but was simply known as "the new taste of Coca-Cola" until 1992 when it was renamed Coca-Cola II.

The American public's reaction to the change was negative and the new cola was a major marketing failure. The subsequent reintroduction of Coke's original formula, re-branded as "Coca-Cola Classic", resulted in a significant gain in sales. This led to speculation that the introduction of the New Coke formula was just a marketing ploy; however the company has always claimed it was merely an attempt to replace the original product"

[stever20]

Well I hope you guys are right, but I wouldn't bet a nickel that the tourney 10 years from now resembles anything like what we have today. Don't forget about the immense, and growing Big Ten Network, SEC Network, Longhorn Network, etc. and those that will be developed by the P5 in the upcoming years. They sell their tourney package for $50 a pop and bingo they don't need CBS's contract or the rest of us. I also think you are dismissing the INCREASE in viewers from the P5 schools that would be IN the tourney rather than out of today's tourney. These are huge schools, attendance wise, with huge alumni followings. What you subtract out from the 'non-P5' you add in others. And as Stever said, they won't need the same package as today as they won't have to divide it up with the conferences not in the brotherhood nor, possibly, the NCAA.

To think that the P5 really cares about tradition and us little guys, well I hope you are right and I am wrong. 10 years......

None of can forecast the future, but we all can have opinions and very few opinions are changed on boards such as this. And that is what makes it fun.

First of all, sports networks have reached a near saturation point and people are no longer willing to pay the skyrocketing costs associated with them (not good for us, either, but worse for the P5). Second, there are as many fans interested in college basketball now as there will ever be. The only thing that happens when you drop off schools like those in the Big East, SLU, VCU, Dayton, Wichita State, Gonzaga, MWC, BYU, Memphis, UConn, Cinncy, Temple, etc is those fans are lost. There aren't magical fans out there who have no interest in the tourney as is, but will become interested when every school in it comes from the P5. There simply aren't. Half of the schools in the tourney are already from the P5. If you keep the tourney at 64, then you have 3-15 teams in there. That will wear thin on people pretty fast. If you change it to 32, then you have roughly the same number of P5 schools as you already had. No interest from others. Why take the risk of ruining something that works so well?

Um, did you see the news last week about the NBA potentially doubling their tv rights fees? Sports rights fees continue to grow- as it's really the ONLY thing out there that advertisers know folks have to watch pretty much real time.

I think the P5 will threaten the new tournament- knowing what they have- in order to get concessions in making the money different. Tilting the money closer to their end.

[HoosierPal]

Well I hope you guys are right, but I wouldn't bet a nickel that the tourney 10 years from now resembles anything like what we have today. Don't forget about the immense, and growing Big Ten Network, SEC Network, Longhorn Network, etc. and those that will be developed by the P5 in the upcoming years. They sell their tourney package for $50 a pop and bingo they don't need CBS's contract or the rest of us. I also think you are dismissing the INCREASE in viewers from the P5 schools that would be IN the tourney rather than out of today's tourney. These are huge schools, attendance wise, with huge alumni followings. What you subtract out from the 'non-P5' you add in others. And as Stever said, they won't need the same package as today as they won't have to divide it up with the conferences not in the brotherhood nor, possibly, the NCAA.

To think that the P5 really cares about tradition and us little guys, well I hope you are right and I am wrong. 10 years......

None of can forecast the future, but we all can have opinions and very few opinions are changed on boards such as this. And that is what makes it fun.

First of all, sports networks have reached a near saturation point and people are no longer willing to pay the skyrocketing costs associated with them (not good for us, either, but worse for the P5). Second, there are as many fans interested in college basketball now as there will ever be. The only thing that happens when you drop off schools like those in the Big East, SLU, VCU, Dayton, Wichita State, Gonzaga, MWC, BYU, Memphis, UConn, Cinncy, Temple, etc is those fans are lost. There aren't magical fans out there who have no interest in the tourney as is, but will become interested when every school in it comes from the P5. There simply aren't. Half of the schools in the tourney are already from the P5. If you keep the tourney at 64, then you have 3-25 teams in there. That will wear thin on people pretty fast. If you change it to 32, then you have roughly the same number of P5 schools as you already had. No interest from others. Why take the risk of ruining something that works so well?

I agree that sports networks have saturated the market, and the "increase rate" of subscribers is decreasing. However, look at these specialty networks. The SEC Network is available to 90 million viewers, and their business model is to sign up 75 million. The Big Ten Network is projected 60 million. The Pac 12 Network has 26 million. That is a lot of viewers even if the projections are off, certainly enough to attract sponsors for a P5 tourney. Add to that whatever the Big 12 / Longhorn Network has plus whatever the ACC brews up, and you are looking at 200 million viewers. Will they all watch a hoops tourney, nope. But to suggest there won't be sponsors pouring in money is, well, shortsighted. Again, I hope I am wrong and you are right. To ignore this potential threat your choice.