How Many At-Large Bids are Locked In Already

[ruechalgrin]

If you go by the consensus bracket, which averages 96 different brackets, neither MN or G'town are in. Last four in are Nebraska, Xavier, TN and Arkansas. First four out are Cal, MN, Providence and Georgetown. But that's just 96 people talking, not me.

And if you go by dancecard the system that's been the most accurate Georgetown is in. Besides 96 random people's opinion doesn't mean much since 92 of them probably have no clue what they're talking about anyway. Now Georgetown needs to win 2 games to get in. If Georgetown played no more games they wouldn't get in. And Frankly if they beat Creighton they'll have no problem beating who ever they face in the semifinals so I expect Georgetown to end up in the BET championship game if they're on their way to the tournament which will end all discussion.

um no. These are a lot of folks that are paid to do this.

One thing to remember about that darn Dance Card- it's acting like selection Sunday is right now. Right now, that'd probably be the case. But the problem is that Creighton game on Thursday. If they lose that game, we are done.

As a whole that Bracket Matrix is extremely reliable.

Dance Card also assumes consistency on committee. Assuming this is the case, anybody 37 or so or above shouldbe safe as unlikely to fall more than 10 spots. So X and above should be locks. Again, assumes committee is objective which has been last 2 years but is not always historically.

Bracket Matrix has wisdom of crowds benefit -- especially if you take out some outliers.

[stever20]

Xavier is far from a lock right now. If they are 20-12 their RPI is going to take a pretty big hit- not to mention the questions with the injury.

[HoosierPal]

BYU is the first true "bubble team" with their conference tourney over. The Bracket Matrix has them anywhere from a 9th seed to not making the tourney. The Cougars have four pretty bad losses, which is something at-large teams don't usually have. They do have wins over Texas and Stanford also, so that helps, and they played a good non-conference schedule. They are 3-6 against Top 50 teams.

What's your coin flip say Stever?

[hoyahooligan]

If you go by the consensus bracket, which averages 96 different brackets, neither MN or G'town are in. Last four in are Nebraska, Xavier, TN and Arkansas. First four out are Cal, MN, Providence and Georgetown. But that's just 96 people talking, not me.

And if you go by dancecard the system that's been the most accurate Georgetown is in. Besides 96 random people's opinion doesn't mean much since 92 of them probably have no clue what they're talking about anyway. Now Georgetown needs to win 2 games to get in. If Georgetown played no more games they wouldn't get in. And Frankly if they beat Creighton they'll have no problem beating who ever they face in the semifinals so I expect Georgetown to end up in the BET championship game if they're on their way to the tournament which will end all discussion.

um no. These are a lot of folks that are paid to do this.

One thing to remember about that darn Dance Card- it's acting like selection Sunday is right now. Right now, that'd probably be the case. But the problem is that Creighton game on Thursday. If they lose that game, we are done.

As a whole that Bracket Matrix is extremely reliable.

being paid to do this doesn't mean you have any clue what you're talking about. Lunardi is the most famous Bracketologist and he's terrible at his job and doesn't know what he's talking about. He changes his bracket dramatically every year on selection sunday once he gets tipped off by people on the committee so his final bracket is decent, but still is usually worse than his competitors.

[stever20]

Xavier is far from a lock right now. If they are 20-12 their RPI is going to take a pretty big hit- not to mention the questions with the injury.

well well well, look at today's dance card.... Xavier now 44th and one of the last 4 in. I'm sorry but if they lose, they are out.

and by this(which I'm not 100% sold on), Providence and St John's aren't really close even.

[HoosierPal]

What is interesting is that at Zero Hour, all of the brackets will have the correct 68 teams. It's the sites where the teams play bump brackets accuracy. When you talk about accuracy of brackets you kind of need to specify a time frame. It's pretty easy to throw a bracket out 1 hour before the NCAA selection show and have all teams nailed.

Which bracketologists had Mt St. Mary in before last night? None.

If you froze all brackets today, it would be interesting and truly telling, on how many rights there are as far as team and locations. Chances are that no one would have the 68 teams right, as they didn't predict upsets in the conference tourneys.

[SJHooper]

Lunardi predicts the winner of the SJ v. PC game will sneak into the field of 68. With his impeccable track record, that's good news for either team. SJ has a golden opportunity. Win 1 game at home and you sneak in the tourney as the last team or 2 in. On the bright side, if we lose vs. PC I won't mind PC having some time in the sun...they deserve it and we need them to get better. Losing to PC at home in essentially a play-in game also proves to me that SJ shouldn't have made it anyway. No offense to PC at all but we have much more depth and we have been hot of late. PC gives me more the feel of a team hanging in there dealing with lots of injuries, lack of depth, and relying too much on 1 player to score. We have 3 guys who can go off for 20 and guys on the bench who can chip in. If Harrison has a good game I don't see how we lose this.

[Bill Marsh]

Lunardi predicts the winner of the SJ v. PC game will sneak into the field of 68. With his impeccable track record, that's good news for either team. SJ has a golden opportunity. Win 1 game at home and you sneak in the tourney as the last team or 2 in. On the bright side, if we lose vs. PC I won't mind PC having some time in the sun...they deserve it and we need them to get better. Losing to PC at home in essentially a play-in game also proves to me that SJ shouldn't have made it anyway. No offense to PC at all but we have much more depth and we have been hot of late. PC gives me more the feel of a team hanging in there dealing with lots of injuries, lack of depth, and relying too much on 1 player to score. We have 3 guys who can go off for 20 and guys on the bench who can chip in. If Harrison has a good game I don't see how we lose this.

Thanks for the props for PC.

Depth only matters at this time of year if a team plays a pressing style with an up tempo offense like Louisville. OTOH, Syracuse always goes with a short bench, rarely going beyond their 7th man. Playing a zone keeps their players from getting worn out on defense and from getting into foul trouble.

Agree that St. John's is hot, but PC has also rounded into form late in the season, winning 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 6 while taking Villanova into double OT before losing by 3.

If you think that PC relies too much on one player to score, then you haven't been watching them lately. Harris (12 ppg) is a very good shooter. Henton (14 ppg) and Fortune (8 ppg) have both made clutch 3's in crunch time down the stretch. Batts is a beast inside and scores his share (13 ppg). The story of Providence this year has been the emergence of their younger players who have enabled them to develop multiple scoring options. Fortune, for example has averaged 12 ppg over the last 10 games and has become a real scoring threat.

I expect St. John's to win this game, but it will be a war and could go either way.

[stever20]

I love how folks think St John's is so red hot...

yes they are 11-3 in the last 14 games...

let's look deeper:
Dartmouth
Seton Hall 2
Butler 2
Marquette 2

That's 7 wins of the 11 vs RPI teams 84 or worse

Only 4-3 against even decent teams in that stretch.

The average RPI of the 11 teams they beat in this stretch- 116.3. Their SOS has gone from #10 before this stretch down to #50.

[HoosierPal]

The only bubble team leaving us last night was Georgetown. Several more will follow today. By this time tomorrow, the competition will be much more refined.