4th Team

[XUFan09]

He said in the discussion for the NIT at 4th place not the NCAAT. Considering 5 of those 6 teams are all in the top 100 RPI. If the 4th place team in the BE is only in the discussion for the NIT, well who were we beating if we theoretically got the 4th spot, the little sister of the poor. I agree it may not be enough for the NCAAT, I just think it can be depending on what the bubble actually looks like in march.

It would have to be really weak bubble. Also, Seton Hall could conceivably get 4th place and head to the NIT while the 5th place team heads to the tournament. For example, if Georgetown turns this around and finishes the season 10-8 in conference and Seton Hall finishes 11-7, that's probably exactly what would happen.

Why wouldn't it be a weak bubble anyway, cbb 203-14 is weak. But forget that, this debate keeps slipping to this they will-they won't distraction, where I'm just sying they can and it wouldn't take an act of God, just a hell of a second half run.

On your second point, again if the 4th place team in the BE was only in the conversation for an NIT bid that would be a huge embarrassment for the league, which to this point hasn't been an embarrassment on a whole. If you're saying you think the chances of the 4th place team not getting an NCAAT bid but a 5th place team doing so are higher than a deserving 4th & 5th bids I just disagree. I think you are discounting what a surge it would take for SHU to finish #4 and what that would be worth to the committee & voters before the Tourny..

I have not discounted the surge it would take for Seton Hall to get 4th place in the league. They would probably have to finish 8-5 or 9-4. Assuming they don't win @Villanova, @Creighton, or @Xavier (a pretty fair assumption), they would have to finish 8-2 or 9-1 in their other games, which would would be a home game against Xavier and the rest against RPI 51-100 opponents and DePaul. RPI 51-100 games matter on the tournament resume, but they don't carry the same weight as RPI top 50 games. Seton Hall would be 1-6 against top 50 teams while having a really good record against RPI 51-100 teams to go with two horrible losses. Their inability to beat other tournament teams makes them sound much more like an NIT team than an NCAA Tournament team.

And it would not be viewed as an embarrassment if the 4th place team did not receive a bid while the 5th place team did. It's a small conference, and 40% of the league made it to the tournament, which is a good percentage. Four tournament teams has been viewed as a satisfactory accomplishment on this board for awhile. Not excellent, but not bad either. And the order of finish by these teams is not a major issue. Not for the media, not for fans. The conference schedule can lead to chaos, and sometimes tournament teams finish behind NIT teams in the conference standings. It's not a black mark on that conference. The following power conference teams did not make the tournament last year while teams behind them did:

UConn
Alabama
Kentucky
Iowa

The SEC should be embarrassed that they only got 3 bids out of 14 teams, not that the 3rd and 4th place teams didn't make the tournament while Mizzou did. Conversely, the Big East (8 of 15) and the Big 10 (7 of 12) had really good showings, and the fact that the 8th and 6th place teams, respectively, didn't make the tournament doesn't take away from that being a very good year. Kentucky probably had much more to do with Nerlen Noels' absence, but teams with a poor non-conference showing have surged in conference before, only to not earn a bid. It happens and no one looks at a conference with disdain if a non-tournament team finishes near the top.

[XUFan09]

Why has this become a thread about whether Seton Hall will be the Big East's 4th team?

Lol that's actually a really good question. Let's talk about Georgetown and Providence. Marquette is still breathing too, though that loss to Butler was a big blow.

One thing Georgetown really has going for it in the bubble talk is its strength of schedule. Their expected non-conference SOS is 36th and their expected overall SOS is 15th. If they manage 20 wins, they'll probably be in good shape with that tough of a schedule.

Providence, on the other hand, doesn't have that bonus. Their expected SOS is 156th and their expected overall SOS is 60th. They have 13 wins right now, though, which is nice.

[Westbrook36]

Why has this become a thread about whether Seton Hall will be the Big East's 4th team?

Are you new to the board? j/k

You know very well why it turned this way, someone said something not complementary about Seton Hall. It seems you upset the Seton Hall faithful if you tell the truth.

[MackNova]

Providence and Georgetown are very close in resumes right now, with a slight edge going to Providence. Right now, Providence is squarely on the bubble (haven't looked super hard at it yet, it's still very early).

Now, if the question is who FINISHES 4th? Wide, wide open. Resume-wise, there's a drop-off after PC and GT.

[Bill Marsh]

Why has this become a thread about whether Seton Hall will be the Big East's 4th team?

Lol that's actually a really good question. Let's talk about Georgetown and Providence. Marquette is still breathing too, though that loss to Butler was a big blow.

One thing Georgetown really has going for it in the bubble talk is its strength of schedule. Their expected non-conference SOS is 36th and their expected overall SOS is 15th. If they manage 20 wins, they'll probably be in good shape with that tough of a schedule.

Providence, on the other hand, doesn't have that bonus. Their expected SOS is 156th and their expected overall SOS is 60th. They have 13 wins right now, though, which is nice.

XUfan, SOS isn't going to matter for either of them unless they can improve on how they've been playing so far, meaning that one of them is going to have to play better than it has so far. Both teams have lost players. The difference is that Georgetown is getting players back and Providence isn't. That being the case, my money is on Georgetown turning things around and getting back into the tournament hunt.

[XUFan09]

Why has this become a thread about whether Seton Hall will be the Big East's 4th team?

Lol that's actually a really good question. Let's talk about Georgetown and Providence. Marquette is still breathing too, though that loss to Butler was a big blow.

One thing Georgetown really has going for it in the bubble talk is its strength of schedule. Their expected non-conference SOS is 36th and their expected overall SOS is 15th. If they manage 20 wins, they'll probably be in good shape with that tough of a schedule.

Providence, on the other hand, doesn't have that bonus. Their expected SOS is 156th and their expected overall SOS is 60th. They have 13 wins right now, though, which is nice.

XUfan, SOS isn't going to matter for either of them unless they can improve on how they've been playing so far, meaning that one of them is going to have to play better than it has so far. Both teams have lost players. The difference is that Georgetown is getting players back and Providence isn't. That being the case, my money is on Georgetown turning things around and getting back into the tournament hunt.

Sorry, I should clarify. I'm talking about if they are one of those bubble teams vying for one of the final spots. SOS and in particular non-conference SOS has proven to be disproportionally significant for determing the last few spots.

[Bill Marsh]

Lol that's actually a really good question. Let's talk about Georgetown and Providence. Marquette is still breathing too, though that loss to Butler was a big blow.

One thing Georgetown really has going for it in the bubble talk is its strength of schedule. Their expected non-conference SOS is 36th and their expected overall SOS is 15th. If they manage 20 wins, they'll probably be in good shape with that tough of a schedule.

Providence, on the other hand, doesn't have that bonus. Their expected SOS is 156th and their expected overall SOS is 60th. They have 13 wins right now, though, which is nice.

XUfan, SOS isn't going to matter for either of them unless they can improve on how they've been playing so far, meaning that one of them is going to have to play better than it has so far. Both teams have lost players. The difference is that Georgetown is getting players back and Providence isn't. That being the case, my money is on Georgetown turning things around and getting back into the tournament hunt.

Sorry, I should clarify. I'm talking about if they are one of those bubble teams vying for one of the final spots. SOS and in particular non-conference SOS has proven to be disproportionally significant for determing the last few spots.

I understand your point and it's a good one. I'm just pointing out that both of them have some work to do before they get to that point.

PC and Georgetown project as #4 and #5 in the conference, which means that they are expected to meet in a 2nd round game. If both have made up some ground in RPI, that game, which figures to be very close, could determine who goes to the NCAA and who goes to the NIT. Knowing what I do today, my money would be on Georgetown in that game. In fact, more than anyone else who might find themselves in that position, they have the best shot to go from there to actually win the tournament.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Point of clarification XUFan, UConn missed the tourney last year because they were ineligible for the post season. The oBE was scary deep last year, and they would have been yet another BE team in the tourney mix had they actually cared about the academic performance of their student athletes.

I think the key to all of this is going to be who each team beats. If PC, G'twn or even SHU (don't want to piss off our friends from Newark) gets some wins vs the teams that end up at the top of the conference (right now that's looking like Nova, XU and CU) then they'll be able to make a better case. If they end up with 10 conf wins but they are all from sweeping the 5 bottom teams, then it's not so impressive.

If I were to rank teams right now I'd say:
1. PC - no terrible losses (now the SHU loss doesn't look as bad as it did 2 weeks ago); beat CU
2. G'twn - 1 bad loss; 2 good wins vs VCU and K St.
3. SHU - 2 terrible losses and no good wins.

[dmac80]

PC on the bubble, amazing with such a short bench, may catch up them in February, where they close 3 out of 4 on the road.....at 13 wins today they are already in shouting distance of 17 reg season wins last year with 13 to play, so looks like its still moving in the positive direction....still a long way to go.


I think the 4 teams making it underscores a need to expand, but to do so with quality teams. I don't see the current BE ever getting more than 4 or 5 out of 10 (yes I know the late 80s/early 90s BE got 7/10 one year)...It isn't the early 90s anymore. I think we need at least 12 quality programs, so 2 smart adds would be better sooner rather than later imo. Then shoot for 5-6 bids every year.

[TheHall]

If that happened though, and SH beat Georgetown in the BET- Georgetown would be 18-13 and Seton Hall would be 21-12. Both would be very likely out of the tournament.

Just looking at RPI forecast- Seton Hall's projected RPI at 20-11 even is only 72.2. That'd be 11-7 in conference play. 21-10 it's 62.8. That's normally not good enough but 12-6 in conference may get enough to sway some committee members. Just think losing to St Peter's(projected RPI of 229) and FDU(254) will just prove fatal for Seton Hall.

I can agree with the assumptions and I can also look at the rest of the conference and say if the hoyas & marq don't turn it around it leaves the door open for PC and potentially SHU.