How many more wins each team needs to get in

[Bill Marsh]

18 wins just won't do it. G'Town has more work to do than SJ. A difference in 2 wins this late in the year is a major difference. G'Town is still below .500 in conference. I could understand all the hype about their chances if they had 19 wins and at least a .500 record in conference right now. Not with 17. Even if they win vs. Nova I think they need a few more wins to secure it. Gotta get to 20.

SJ's path is easier. Marquette will be at home but we dominated the last game. When we run into other teams who can't shoot, we can dominate. I think they are the only other team in the conference that shoots as bad or worse than we do. That would be HUGE to get to 20 wins and they could essentially look at the 1st BET game as the game that can get them their bid.

I don't think SJ will do it...they are snakebitten. But I don't see G'Town getting in without running the table to get 20 wins. To get in with under 20 some other teams would have to collapse. Even 20 is questionable these days and 21 is the bar.

Do you seriously think that St. John's is "snake bitten"? What does that even mean?

Snake bitten aka bad luck aka dark cloud over the program. And yes I believe it. This is a team that is easily good enough not only to make the tourney but win a few as well. But instead they will miss the tourney for the 3rd year in a row. I'm starting to think this is just simply a program that goes once every 10 years. Nothing more, nothing less.

I assume that you are an educated person because you are a fan of college sports. What educated person in the 21st century believes that his fate in life is the result of ongoing "bad luck" or "a dark cloud over the program"? This is not ancient Greece where people consulted priestesses to read the entrails of dead animals to predict their future.

Our fate is within our own hands and is largely the result of the decisions we make. Nothing more nothing less. St. John's had a 90 year history of greatness in college basketball because of hard work and the good decisions of a lot of people. They've had a mediocre run in the past decade, but they're working at it.

You have no idea whether they will miss the tournament for the 3rd year in a row. They might, but with a few wins in the next 10 days, they could still get there. Let's wait until the results are in before proclaiming, "The sky is falling."

[stever20]

I think one thing that's bad for St John's....

since Monday when ESPN released their bracketology...

last 4 byes:
Cal lost
BYU DNP
Baylor beat Iowa St
Oklahoma St beat Kansas St

last 4 in:
Arkansas won
Oregon beat Arizona St
Tennessee won
Minnesota dnp

1st 4 out:
Providence won
Nebraska won
St John's dnp
FSU won

next 4 out
Missouri won
Dayton beat St Louis
Georgetown beat Creighton
La Tech dnp

so of the 16- 5 got HUGE wins- 3 of them clinching bid type of wins.
11 won overall
only Cal lost

For someone like St John's they probably are on the next 4 out line now. They've lost ground just sitting at home these last 3 nights.

[Bill Marsh]

Nothing has changed for St. John's. They still need to beat Marquette. They still need a deep run in the Big East tournament.

[stever20]

Nothing has changed for St. John's. They still need to beat Marquette. They still need a deep run in the Big East tournament.

true but if some of these teams keep on winning, it's going to make it really tough. I mean, just look at Dayton and Georgetown. They have passed St John's- when Lunardi does it next time, I fully expect St John's to be in the next 4 out rather than first 4 out. Just more teams that St John's is going to have to pass to get into the tourney.

What it's doing is probably force St John's now to make it to the title game. 21 wins just isn't going to be enough.

[Bill Marsh]

Nothing has changed for St. John's. They still need to beat Marquette. They still need a deep run in the Big East tournament.

true but if some of these teams keep on winning, it's going to make it really tough. I mean, just look at Dayton and Georgetown. They have passed St John's- when Lunardi does it next time, I fully expect St John's to be in the next 4 out rather than first 4 out. Just more teams that St John's is going to have to pass to get into the tourney.

What it's doing is probably force St John's now to make it to the title game. 21 wins just isn't going to be enough.

I agree. St. John's has to win their next 3 games, which is what I think they had to do all along. They're certainly capable of doing that.

[SJHooper]

Do you really not believe in bad luck? When no matter what you do the outcome seems to be negative most of the time? I give you the New York Mets. I give you the New York Jets. I give you the New York Knicks. All have had great talent and nothing to show for it. The Knicks have Melo, Chandler, Amare and other studs. They are god awful. Do you really think bad luck has nothing to do with it? Sometimes you can make the best decisions and still things may not pan out.

I think part of it is a losing culture that begins to solidify in programs. Once that takes hold in the psyche of players, the expectations go down, and they begin to have a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's like the Yankee effect...players seem to do better when they come to the Yanks vs. the Mets. Why? A winning culture. Huge expectations. A huge commitment to excellence. So to me it's a bit of both bad luck (no outside teams have helped us and we lost almost every close game and had ridiculous shots in crunch time made against us) and a bad culture. I can't wait until 2021 when we are due to make the tourney again and likely lose the first game as is tradition. It's easy to think I'm nuts and just being negative but try rooting for my teams. I dare you.

[stever20]

Nothing has changed for St. John's. They still need to beat Marquette. They still need a deep run in the Big East tournament.

true but if some of these teams keep on winning, it's going to make it really tough. I mean, just look at Dayton and Georgetown. They have passed St John's- when Lunardi does it next time, I fully expect St John's to be in the next 4 out rather than first 4 out. Just more teams that St John's is going to have to pass to get into the tourney.

What it's doing is probably force St John's now to make it to the title game. 21 wins just isn't going to be enough.

I agree. St. John's has to win their next 3 games, which is what I think they had to do all along. They're certainly capable of doing that.

think if more of the bubble teams had fallen- they may have gotten in with 21. not any more...

also- all these bubbles winning like this, makes a team like Xavier now almost certainly have to win a game. Saw a bracketology today from CBS that has Xavier and PC both in- but in the PIG. That's real danger territory for both teams I think.

[Bill Marsh]

Do you really not believe in bad luck? When no matter what you do the outcome seems to be negative most of the time? I give you the New York Mets. I give you the New York Jets. I give you the New York Knicks. All have had great talent and nothing to show for it. The Knicks have Melo, Chandler, Amare and other studs. They are god awful. Do you really think bad luck has nothing to do with it? Sometimes you can make the best decisions and still things may not pan out.

I think part of it is a losing culture that begins to solidify in programs. Once that takes hold in the psyche of players, the expectations go down, and they begin to have a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's like the Yankee effect...players seem to do better when they come to the Yanks vs. the Mets. Why? A winning culture. Huge expectations. A huge commitment to excellence. So to me it's a bit of both bad luck (no outside teams have helped us and we lost almost every close game and had ridiculous shots in crunch time made against us) and a bad culture. I can't wait until 2021 when we are due to make the tourney again and likely lose the first game as is tradition. It's easy to think I'm nuts and just being negative but try rooting for my teams. I dare you.

To answer your question, yes, I don't think that bad luck has anything to do with it.

Does a losing culture solidify in programs? Meh. It can be turned around in a heart beat.

I understand that you're discouraged. Frankly SJU is in the same boat that most programs are in. It's the exceptions that win regularly. SJU was one of those programs for a very long time. It's hard to be a fan because we have absolutely no control over the outcomes and no input into the decisions. We just sit by helplessly and watch what transpires for better or for worse. Very frustrating when things don't go our way.

I haven't given up on St. John's yet. They need 3 wins to get into the tournament. It's an up hill struggle, so they might well be unable to accomplish that, but I'll wait until it's over before I count them out. I also think the future is bright for next year. They made progress this year and it just might all take one year longer than we wanted.

[Bill Marsh]

true but if some of these teams keep on winning, it's going to make it really tough. I mean, just look at Dayton and Georgetown. They have passed St John's- when Lunardi does it next time, I fully expect St John's to be in the next 4 out rather than first 4 out. Just more teams that St John's is going to have to pass to get into the tourney.

What it's doing is probably force St John's now to make it to the title game. 21 wins just isn't going to be enough.

I agree. St. John's has to win their next 3 games, which is what I think they had to do all along. They're certainly capable of doing that.

think if more of the bubble teams had fallen- they may have gotten in with 21. not any more...

also- all these bubbles winning like this, makes a team like Xavier now almost certainly have to win a game. Saw a bracketology today from CBS that has Xavier and PC both in- but in the PIG. That's real danger territory for both teams I think.

I think that Xavier needed one more win anyway.

There have been wins by bubble teams, but there have been losses too. Cal and Stanford both lost last night, for example. There will be more losses by bubble teams and some unexpected wins. Big East teams have no control over that. Those who want to make the tournament just have to go out and take care of business. If they do, they'll be in. If they don't, they won't.

Providence is in good position. St. John's and Georgetown are both capable of making good runs in the BE tournament. That's what's within their control.

Xavier is the unfortunate victim of an injury. They have to hope that Stainbrook has a quick recovery and still has something left. Unfortunately their fate is not in their own hands,

[stever20]

Cal losing helps, but Stanford by most counts going in was a 10 seed, so not really close yet. Cal the only one in that group of 16 by Lunardi that lost the last 3 nights.

Also, some of the wins were the type that pretty much make teams locks. Baylor, Oklahoma St, Oregon, and Colorado.

Providence must win either vs Creighton or the BET. If they go 0-2 they will not make the tourney.