FORBES: AAC May Have Strongest Teams in the Dance

[stever20]

4 pages for a troll thread. Man, we all need lives.

Stever, put your spreadsheets away, let the doom and gloom hypothesizing be, go out, get a drink (or smoke a bowl, whatever is your thing, no judgment), get happy, and come back here to make your first positive post about the Big East. Come on, I promise it won't be so bad. I do find a lot of your posts informative and interesting, but you have to stop pounding the funeral drums at some point. The Big East isn't dead yet.

Think about this. If I'm saying this year is worst case scenario, isn't that actually a very positive thing for the Big East? If this is as bad as it ever will be, isn't that a pretty nice floor? Just think about that. A lot has gone snake eyes for us this year. But we still should almost certainly get 4 teams in now.

[stever20]

Right now Bracketmatrix has Cincy as a 4 seed. Very possible if Cincy or Louisville wins that they get a 3 seed, with an outside shot of a 2 seed.

If either of them wins out from here- they have a top 10 RPI.

Well after the results of this afternoon's UConn game, Cincy's not winning out.

Neither is Louisville. The results of the Memphis game is just in.

Just was looking- here's the projected RPI's of the 5 teams in the AAC should they win out now to include the conference tourney
Cincy 8
Louisville 11.3
UConn 10.6
Memphis 21.6
SMU 12.9

Odds are really good that 1 of these 5 will do just that. If anyone but Memphis is the team- they're going to have a team that is no worse than 13th in RPI. Furthermore, should one of the 4 teams win out but lose in the title game, they're going to have a RPI from 13-18. So, I'd expect the AAC when all is said and done to see them get a 3 and a 4- with a 2 still VERY much in play.

Oh, and the AAC may even have a bonus baby if you will. Tulsa has emerged into the top 100 RPI and if UAB beats La Tech today, Tulsa would control their own destiny for the regular season(good news for Creighton btw, another top 100 win now!) If they take the auto bid, that's just extra for them.

btw for comparisons sake- here's RPI for our teams should they win out/lose in title game...
Villanova 2.6 4.4
Creighton 3.4 6.0
Xavier 14.5 21.5
Providence 26.0 31.3
Georgetown 19.4 23.9
St John's 33.0 42.8
Marquette 28.3 34.8

think it's pretty remarkable with Georgetown. Makes you wonder if they win both this week and just get 1 in the BET if they could get in.

[CTYankee10]

Steve - I normally think you are all doom and gloom but these last few posts have shown some nice balance. I agree with your point that the AAC definitely has a more final 5 teams and the RPI numbers look better (albeit a bit inflated) despite their conference lacking marquee wins (Uconn over Fla, think Louisville beat UNC).

As for the BE, I think it's going to be between 4-6 bids. If Georgetown beats Villanova on the road next week, that will solidify them although Mich St has sort of entered a tailspin (trio of Mich St neutral/@Villanova/VCU is strong). Meanwhile, if PC beats Creighton again then that puts them on the right side of the bubble. Purely hypothetical, but opportunities are there and I think 5-6 bids is a solid year for a perceived down year for the conference.

[stever20]

Steve - I normally think you are all doom and gloom but these last few posts have shown some nice balance. I agree with your point that the AAC definitely has a more final 5 teams and the RPI numbers look better (albeit a bit inflated) despite their conference lacking marquee wins (Uconn over Fla, think Louisville beat UNC).

As for the BE, I think it's going to be between 4-6 bids. If Georgetown beats Villanova on the road next week, that will solidify them although Mich St has sort of entered a tailspin (trio of Mich St neutral/@Villanova/VCU is strong). Meanwhile, if PC beats Creighton again then that puts them on the right side of the bubble. Purely hypothetical, but opportunities are there and I think 5-6 bids is a solid year for a perceived down year for the conference.

Georgetown unfortunately needs more than just Nova. 17-13 wouldn't cut it, unless they got 2 wins in the BET(remember, they will almost guaranteed now be in the 7/10 game, that won't help them much at all.)

PC won't beat Creighton. Not on their senior night. That's just not realistic.

[marquette]

4 pages for a troll thread. Man, we all need lives.

Stever, put your spreadsheets away, let the doom and gloom hypothesizing be, go out, get a drink (or smoke a bowl, whatever is your thing, no judgment), get happy, and come back here to make your first positive post about the Big East. Come on, I promise it won't be so bad. I do find a lot of your posts informative and interesting, but you have to stop pounding the funeral drums at some point. The Big East isn't dead yet.

Think about this. If I'm saying this year is worst case scenario, isn't that actually a very positive thing for the Big East? If this is as bad as it ever will be, isn't that a pretty nice floor? Just think about that. A lot has gone snake eyes for us this year. But we still should almost certainly get 4 teams in now.

See, this I like. We'll turn you into a silver lining guy yet.

[SJHooper]

People need to relax about the AAC. They are totally overachieving. SMU is a terrible program and the only reason they are doing well is because of Larry Brown who is ancient. He won't be there long. UConn is losing their stud guards after this year. Just wait until Tulsa, East Carolina, and Tulane drag them through the mud. Also, L'Ville is gone.

Not sure what everyone is so worried about. This is an "everything went right" year for them. Their RPI will be awful with the new additions and the huge L'Ville loss.

[milwaukeejedi1]

ANY has arguably the top recruit in the country running the point next year in Emmanuel Mudiay! Off the strength of this season, the team's in the lower half of the SAC should get a big recruiting bump with the added prestige and exposure. HOUSTON is a talented team that should flourish with a new coach.. they beat UCONN and Memphis this year...

But as was said, those 4 programs (UCONN, MEMPHIS, CINCINNATI, SMU) will all be strong contenders next year; while Creighton will likely disappear once their once in a blue moon players moves on to the NBA.

I THINK THE WRITER MAKES A GOOD ARGUMENT ABOUT THE FOX ALBATROSS.

Interestingly, the only AAC school with a top flight class coming in next year is Cincinnati; they have multiple 4 star 2014 rated players signed. Yes SMU has Mudiay, but he is the only member of the 2014 class. UConn used to have classes composed of multiple 4 star kids with a 5 star but since Ollie took over its classes now have multiple 3 star kids with a 4. Last year when Memphis was set to join the Big East, Pastner put together a monster 2013 class; his 2014 class is almost all Juco players. I will not bother commenting on the recruiting classes of the other AAC schools (at best they are average for Conference USA type teams).

Meanwhile, the Big East schools were able to attract at least 14 top 100 rated players. Marquette, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier, St. John's, and Villanova added to their already well stocked arsenals. Additionally, Seton Hall and Creighton were boosted by their Big East association. Seton Hall put together a monster class and Creighton attracted a top 100 player.

As a result, the Big East (assuredly for the next few years) has the players and coaches to compete at the highest level while the AAC is still playing catchup needing to rebuild down programs. Furthermore, for now at least, one of the flagship AAC programs, UConn, isn't the recruiting powerhouse it once was when Calhoun was there.

[kellernr]

[/quote]
Interestingly, the only AAC school with a top flight class coming in next year is Cincinnati; they have multiple 4 star 2014 rated players signed. Yes SMU has Mudiay, but he is the only member of the 2014 class. UConn used to have classes composed of multiple 4 star kids with a 5 star but since Ollie took over its classes now have multiple 3 star kids with a 4. Last year when Memphis was set to join the Big East, Pastner put together a monster 2013 class; his 2014 class is almost all Juco players. I will not bother commenting on the recruiting classes of the other AAC schools (at best they are average for Conference USA type teams).
[/quote]

http://rivals.yahoo.com/xavier/basketba ... cinnati-98

UC has (1) 4 star and we all know how cronin develops big men. This class isn't a top flight class.

[milwaukeejedi1]

Interestingly, the only AAC school with a top flight class coming in next year is Cincinnati; they have multiple 4 star 2014 rated players signed. Yes SMU has Mudiay, but he is the only member of the 2014 class. UConn used to have classes composed of multiple 4 star kids with a 5 star but since Ollie took over its classes now have multiple 3 star kids with a 4. Last year when Memphis was set to join the Big East, Pastner put together a monster 2013 class; his 2014 class is almost all Juco players. I will not bother commenting on the recruiting classes of the other AAC schools (at best they are average for Conference USA type teams).

http://rivals.yahoo.com/xavier/basketba ... cinnati-98

UC has (1) 4 star and we all know how cronin develops big men. This class isn't a top flight class.

Fair statement...

I was basing my assessment off of 247's site, http://cincinnati.247sports.com/Season/ ... ll/Commits .

[Bill Marsh]

ANY has arguably the top recruit in the country running the point next year in Emmanuel Mudiay! Off the strength of this season, the team's in the lower half of the SAC should get a big recruiting bump with the added prestige and exposure. HOUSTON is a talented team that should flourish with a new coach.. they beat UCONN and Memphis this year...

But as was said, those 4 programs (UCONN, MEMPHIS, CINCINNATI, SMU) will all be strong contenders next year; while Creighton will likely disappear once their once in a blue moon players moves on to the NBA.

I THINK THE WRITER MAKES A GOOD ARGUMENT ABOUT THE FOX ALBATROSS.

Interestingly, the only AAC school with a top flight class coming in next year is Cincinnati; they have multiple 4 star 2014 rated players signed. Yes SMU has Mudiay, but he is the only member of the 2014 class. UConn used to have classes composed of multiple 4 star kids with a 5 star but since Ollie took over its classes now have multiple 3 star kids with a 4. Last year when Memphis was set to join the Big East, Pastner put together a monster 2013 class; his 2014 class is almost all Juco players. I will not bother commenting on the recruiting classes of the other AAC schools (at best they are average for Conference USA type teams).

Meanwhile, the Big East schools were able to attract at least 14 top 100 rated players. Marquette, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier, St. John's, and Villanova added to their already well stocked arsenals. Additionally, Seton Hall and Creighton were boosted by their Big East association. Seton Hall put together a monster class and Creighton attracted a top 100 player.

As a result, the Big East (assuredly for the next few years) has the players and coaches to compete at the highest level while the AAC is still playing catchup needing to rebuild down programs. Furthermore, for now at least, one of the flagship AAC programs, UConn, isn't the recruiting powerhouse it once was when Calhoun was there.

I'm no booster of the AAC, but UConn's recruiting is in better shape than you're giving it credit for. Ollie has only had one season to recruit so far and he was on an interim contract for half that year, so it's next to impossible to rate him as a recruiter so far. Despite that, he is bringing in the following for next year:

5* Daniel Hamilton
5* Rodney Purvis (2012 McDonald's AA, transfer from NC State)
3* Sam Cassell Jr (3* but after year of JUCO was recruited by Marquette, Louisville, Missouri et al)

Ollie already has two 4* recruits lined up for 2015. Cincy, Memphis, and SMU are all loaded. Temple is the program that has taken a step backward and is not recruiting like a power program.

I completely agree that the rest of the conference stinks and as a whole it's a lousy basketball league, but that doesn't mean that the 4 top programs coming back can't continue to compete on a high level if they schedule OOC properly.

Bottom line is that I agree with you that the Big East is a far superior conference. Just wanted to add some additional information.