4th Team

[stever20]

This.

Bottom line: If you want to argue Seton Hall is the 4th-best team in the Big East right now, you can at least make an argument. Do they have the fourth-best resume? No. Not even close. It is January, so if Seton Hall goes on a huge run, it's not over with. But I think Hall will need to win in NY.

Did injuries hurt Seton Hall? Sure, but Georgetown was out two of its key players when Seton Hall beat them. Josh Smith might not come back, so that may turn out to be irrelevant, but SHU isn't the only team with injuries. Plus, Maayan isn't coming back either.


At the same token, I wonder if Smith possibly not coming back is enough to dock Georgetown for some of its early-season wins.

See Hall2012 this is why I didn't bother making the full case. This guy's running all over the place just to say SHU has no chance. When did anyone say other teams haven't had injuries. The point is they matter no matter who has them, but the fact that we have our guys back & they are good players is what's relevant. Just ask Hoya fans if a healthy tandem of Fuquan & Teague playing for the whole game was a different challenge than what Marquette faced a few games ago. That's the team we are fielding now, not the one this guy keeps talking about. People who think this is the team that lost to FDU & St. Pete's, you're wrong, 2013 is over & there are plenty of games to be played.

2013 may be over- but the results are still a huge part of the team. SHU has a chance, but they have almost no margin for error now. They're 11-7 right now. Need at least 21 wins which would be 21-10. 10-3. Is that possible? yes. Is it realistic? No. They have road games with Villanova and Creighton. If they lose both of those, they would have to go 10-1 the rest of the season to get to the 21 wins.

[stever20]

If that happened though, and SH beat Georgetown in the BET- Georgetown would be 18-13 and Seton Hall would be 21-12. Both would be very likely out of the tournament.

Just looking at RPI forecast- Seton Hall's projected RPI at 20-11 even is only 72.2. That'd be 11-7 in conference play. 21-10 it's 62.8. That's normally not good enough but 12-6 in conference may get enough to sway some committee members. Just think losing to St Peter's(projected RPI of 229) and FDU(254) will just prove fatal for Seton Hall.

[TheHall]

He said in the discussion for the NIT at 4th place not the NCAAT. Considering 5 of those 6 teams are all in the top 100 RPI. If the 4th place team in the BE is only in the discussion for the NIT, well who were we beating if we theoretically got the 4th spot, the little sister of the poor. I agree it may not be enough for the NCAAT, I just think it can be depending on what the bubble actually looks like in march.

It would have to be really weak bubble. Also, Seton Hall could conceivably get 4th place and head to the NIT while the 5th place team heads to the tournament. For example, if Georgetown turns this around and finishes the season 10-8 in conference and Seton Hall finishes 11-7, that's probably exactly what would happen.

Why wouldn't it be a weak bubble anyway, cbb 203-14 is weak. But forget that, this debate keeps slipping to this they will-they won't distraction, where I'm just sying they can and it wouldn't take an act of God, just a hell of a second half run.

On your second point, again if the 4th place team in the BE was only in the conversation for an NIT bid that would be a huge embarrassment for the league, which to this point hasn't been an embarrassment on a whole. If you're saying you think the chances of the 4th place team not getting an NCAAT bid but a 5th place team doing so are higher than a deserving 4th & 5th bids I just disagree. I think you are discounting what a surge it would take for SHU to finish #4 and what that would be worth to the committee & voters before the Tourny..

[BillikensWin]

It's an interesting question:

Which is better: (a) fewer bids but higher quality seeds; or (b) more bids with lower average seed?

I think the "year" for the Big East is going to be determined by how long teams last over how many teams make it.

[MackNova]

This.

Bottom line: If you want to argue Seton Hall is the 4th-best team in the Big East right now, you can at least make an argument. Do they have the fourth-best resume? No. Not even close. It is January, so if Seton Hall goes on a huge run, it's not over with. But I think Hall will need to win in NY.

Did injuries hurt Seton Hall? Sure, but Georgetown was out two of its key players when Seton Hall beat them. Josh Smith might not come back, so that may turn out to be irrelevant, but SHU isn't the only team with injuries. Plus, Maayan isn't coming back either.


At the same token, I wonder if Smith possibly not coming back is enough to dock Georgetown for some of its early-season wins.

See Hall2012 this is why I didn't bother making the full case. This guy's running all over the place just to say SHU has no chance. When did anyone say other teams haven't had injuries. The point is they matter no matter who has them, but the fact that we have our guys back & they are good players is what's relevant. Just ask Hoya fans if a healthy tandem of Fuquan & Teague playing for the whole game was a different challenge than what Marquette faced a few games ago. That's the team we are fielding now, not the one this guy keeps talking about. He reduced our bad loss total by 33% within 3 posts yet he's still pontificating the same story, facts be damned. People who think this is the team that lost to FDU & St. Pete's, you're wrong, 2013 is over & there are plenty of games to be played.

Give me a percentage chance. I've asked that early in the thread, you just dance around that.

What percentage chance does Seton Hall of making the NCAA Tournament, in your opinion?

Current tournament resume:
- #271 non-conference SOS
- #102 RPI
- 2 losses outside RPI top 200
- 2 wins vs RPI top 150

Yet you think it's nuts other people, including Seton Hall fans, think it would take a miracle for Seton Hall to make the tournament.

Listen, you'll have your chances. You'll face Xavier twice, and you'll go on the road at Villanova and Creighton. Win a couple of those games, and you can START to make a case. Right now, there is none.

The 4th-best team in the Big East is not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA Tournament. If you go 12-6 in the Big East and finish 4th (which would involve finishing 10-3), sure, you would get bubble talk. I still don't think it would be enough given how much you shot yourself in the foot in the preseason.

Give me a percentage. I say less than 5%.

[MackNova]

It's an interesting question:

Which is better: (a) fewer bids but higher quality seeds; or (b) more bids with lower average seed?

I think the "year" for the Big East is going to be determined by how long teams last over how many teams make it.

I think it's both. If the Big East gets 4 teams in, it would mean 40% of the conference made it, which would be one of the nation's better percentages. However, if no team makes it to the Sweet 16, it would be a disaster.

On the flip side, if only three made it, and Villanova/Creighton/Xavier makes the Final Four, it would make up for having less teams.

[TheHall]

It's an interesting question:

Which is better: (a) fewer bids but higher quality seeds; or (b) more bids with lower average seed?

I think the "year" for the Big East is going to be determined by how long teams last over how many teams make it.

Just in general which one resembles a power conference profile. I would say more & higher quality is zen, but not typical for power conferences. But for a 10 team conference 3 high quality sounds more like a power league vs. 5 lower average seed although both could represent a strong conference.

[CTYankee10]

Hall fans - I understand your frustration, but try to look at it through the lens of folks not looking at every breath and step during practice and games.

For better or worse, they had the 2 worst OOC losses in the conference. They are also sub-500 in conference at this point. Never a great formula for a bubble team. In fact, bad losses are often a larger distinguishing factor over big wins, especially since the expansion to 68 and a perceived "weakening" of the bubble.

Couple this with over the last several years (again, not saying it's right), that Seton Hall has had some really soft non-conference schedules and not much to show for it. I'm not doubting that on any given night that Seton Hall can beat most, if not all teams in the league particularly at home.

I just ask you to consider some of these factors, and to just take any criticism in stride - it will be worth it if/when you're prognostication is proven correct. Nova fans sat back and let fans of other teams pick them middle of the pack and those predictions were just that - not the actual results. Looking forward to the Nova Creighton game tomorrow and the rest of the season to play out.

[Bill Marsh]

Why has this become a thread about whether Seton Hall will be the Big East's 4th team?

There are other contenders. As people project what kind of record it would take to get in, I haven't seen Big East tournament wins in the mix except for references to winning the tournament. The 4-5 game is going to generate an extra win for one of those two teams. That winner will be favored to lose its next game, but a win in the semis would obviously strengthen their candidacy enormously.

The other thing that's being ignored is the strength of the conference, rated at #4 by many if not most services. That means that almost any win in the conference is a good one and that anyone going on a run will have the cumulative benefit of a series of good wins. So, regardless of what the non-conference record is, a run through the conference coupled with a good showing in the conference tournament can overcome that.

[stever20]

Why has this become a thread about whether Seton Hall will be the Big East's 4th team?

There are other contenders. As people project what kind of record it would take to get in, I haven't seen Big East tournament wins in the mix except for references to winning the tournament. The 4-5 game is going to generate an extra win for one of those two teams. That winner will be favored to lose its next game, but a win in the semis would obviously strengthen their candidacy enormously.

The other thing that's being ignored is the strength of the conference, rated at #4 by many if not most services. That means that almost any win in the conference is a good one and that anyone going on a run will have the cumulative benefit of a series of good wins. So, regardless of what the non-conference record is, a run through the conference coupled with a good showing in the conference tournament can overcome that.

The question though is going to be how good the wins are going to be. Right now RPI forecast has 4 of our teams out of the top 100, and Marquette just in the top 100. So if you go 8-2 vs those 5 teams- that's not going to be a lot of good wins- and moreso 2 bad losses. You can't just dismiss the OOC part of the schedule at all.