Week 2 Rankings

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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby Friarfan2 » Tue Jan 07, 2014 5:48 pm

That's what I mean, the old c-usa.

The old c-usa was fine for the teams that were trying, but there was enough slop on the bottom to just keep them down, and they didn't have that great media exposure. Same thing for conference america.

Similar to the mountain west (which is a conference I actually enjoy following).

I'm not an AAC hater, but I'm not going to sugar coat their position and I am thankful we split.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby stever20 » Tue Jan 07, 2014 6:14 pm

Friarfan2 wrote:That's what I mean, the old c-usa.

The old c-usa was fine for the teams that were trying, but there was enough slop on the bottom to just keep them down, and they didn't have that great media exposure. Same thing for conference america.

Similar to the mountain west (which is a conference I actually enjoy following).

I'm not an AAC hater, but I'm not going to sugar coat their position and I am thankful we split.


AAC has way stronger TV coverage than MWC. Having EVERY conference game televised nationally is something you just don't see.

And, if it kept CUSA down back a few years ago, how could Marquette make the final 4? That's hardly keeping them down. And I think with UConn and Temple- may actually be stronger than that version of CUSA.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby hoyahooligan » Tue Jan 07, 2014 8:59 pm

stever20 wrote:
Friarfan2 wrote:Exactly. Who care about being the #1 conference? We just need to remain among the top conferences.

Would you rather be rutgers out of the big east, virginia tech out of the acc, or a better team from a lesser conference this past decade like kansas out of big 12 or arizona out of the pac 10?

And it wasn't that long ago that the big 10 was deemed a struggling conference. (5 yrs ago?). Obviously they turned it around.

Just keep our conference rpi consistently in the top 5 (and sometimes better), keep sending 40-45% of our teams to the dance, keep up our major market presence, keep winning tourney games, and we will be fine.

And the best thing we ever did was split away from the american conference teams. Way too much slop at the bottom to keep up our mission. Uconn will be fine. Memphis will be fine. Cincy will make the tournament in a good number of years. Remains to be seen how tough shape temple is in. I am sure they will have a team ocassional jump up to tourney quality (like usf did out of the big east a couple of years ago). But overall that conference has a lot of flaws. They have horrible media financial support and an equally as bad media exposure deal (unless you like espn news and internet streamed games), and the bottom of that conference is never really going to pull themselves out of the basement with them chasing football glory with all their resources.

American conference isn't the worst conference, just like old c-usa wasn't the worst. But it is a very good thing we split, and anyone looking objectively will agree. (Cue stever claiming that I am comparing the american to the southwest or the neac, even though I acknowledge that their top teams will still compete)

The AAC is like CUSA was- back when Marquette, Louisville, Cincy etc. were in there. That was a VERY good conference. It's exposure is light years better than you want to give it credit. A conference that can get 4-5 out of 10 teams in the tourney is nothing to sneeze at.



This year they may get 4-5 out of 10 but next year they go to 12 or 14 right? But none of the teams they're going to add are tournament teams. I think there are enough bad teams in the AAC and their bubble teams are bad enough that they'll knock themselves off the bubble. Heck I think SMU and Houston beating Uconn hurt Uconn more than it helped those two teams, especially the houston loss.

Outside of a win over a injured Florida team at home on a buzzer beater they have beaten no good teams. If they drop too many more games in the AAC they might not make the tournament.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby stever20 » Tue Jan 07, 2014 9:51 pm

hoyahooligan wrote:
stever20 wrote:
Friarfan2 wrote:Exactly. Who care about being the #1 conference? We just need to remain among the top conferences.

Would you rather be rutgers out of the big east, virginia tech out of the acc, or a better team from a lesser conference this past decade like kansas out of big 12 or arizona out of the pac 10?

And it wasn't that long ago that the big 10 was deemed a struggling conference. (5 yrs ago?). Obviously they turned it around.

Just keep our conference rpi consistently in the top 5 (and sometimes better), keep sending 40-45% of our teams to the dance, keep up our major market presence, keep winning tourney games, and we will be fine.

And the best thing we ever did was split away from the american conference teams. Way too much slop at the bottom to keep up our mission. Uconn will be fine. Memphis will be fine. Cincy will make the tournament in a good number of years. Remains to be seen how tough shape temple is in. I am sure they will have a team ocassional jump up to tourney quality (like usf did out of the big east a couple of years ago). But overall that conference has a lot of flaws. They have horrible media financial support and an equally as bad media exposure deal (unless you like espn news and internet streamed games), and the bottom of that conference is never really going to pull themselves out of the basement with them chasing football glory with all their resources.

American conference isn't the worst conference, just like old c-usa wasn't the worst. But it is a very good thing we split, and anyone looking objectively will agree. (Cue stever claiming that I am comparing the american to the southwest or the neac, even though I acknowledge that their top teams will still compete)

The AAC is like CUSA was- back when Marquette, Louisville, Cincy etc. were in there. That was a VERY good conference. It's exposure is light years better than you want to give it credit. A conference that can get 4-5 out of 10 teams in the tourney is nothing to sneeze at.



This year they may get 4-5 out of 10 but next year they go to 12 or 14 right? But none of the teams they're going to add are tournament teams. I think there are enough bad teams in the AAC and their bubble teams are bad enough that they'll knock themselves off the bubble. Heck I think SMU and Houston beating Uconn hurt Uconn more than it helped those two teams, especially the houston loss.

Outside of a win over a injured Florida team at home on a buzzer beater they have beaten no good teams. If they drop too many more games in the AAC they might not make the tournament.

actually it's 11 next year. Lose 2 gain 3.

SMU beating UConn helped SMU big time. SMU is going to be a legit bubble team. UConn should get enough wins to be safe pretty easily. Tomorrow a huge game for them with Harvard.

AAC is 4-4 vs current RPI top 25 teams. Memphis over Oklahoma St, Cincy over Pittsburgh, UConn over Florida, and Louisville over Southern Miss(that'll go away obviously). Memphis still has one with Gonzaga left I know.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby notkirkcameron » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:23 pm

stever20 wrote:The AAC is like CUSA was- back when Marquette, Louisville, Cincy etc. were in there. That was a VERY good conference. It's exposure is light years better than you want to give it credit. A conference that can get 4-5 out of 10 teams in the tourney is nothing to sneeze at.


Ehhhh....kind of. If you examine Conference USA's 2004-05 lineup, and The American's 2014-15 lineup, you'll find six teams in common, with really only two of them being consistently decent (Memphis, South Florida, Houston, East Carolina, Tulane, and Cincinnati).

But the AAC counterparts to the remaining 2004-05 Conference USA members are, with the exception of UConn, a disaster.
Remainder of 04-05 CUSA: Marquette, Louisville, Saint Louis, Charlotte, DePaul, Southern Miss, UAB, TCU
Remainder of 14-15 AAC: Tulsa, UConn, Temple, Central Florida, SMU

The AAC replacements are really just "UConn and the rest of the gang."
* Tulsa hasn't sniffed the NCAA Tournament since they were a member of the WAC in 2003.
* SMU was a member of the Southwest Conference the last time it made the NCAAs (1993) and hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game in 25 years (1988 over Notre Dame).
* UCF hasn't made the Tournament in almost 10 years.
* Temple was supposed to be one of the old Big East's picks (along with Memphis) that would placate the basketball schools, but Temple hasn't been past the first weekend of the tournament since 2001.

Meanwhile...
* Marquette missed the NCAA Tournament in 2005 (mostly due to injuries down the stretch), but 2005 was one of only two years in the past 12 where MU missed the Dance, and in that 12 year span, MU has been to four Sweet 16s, two Elite 8s, a Final 4, and won two Conference Titles (2003 C-USA, 2013 Big East)
* Louisville has won the national championship, been to a couple final fours, and won a couple conference titles.
* Saint Louis is resurgent, making the tournament each of the last two years, and won the A-10 championship last year
* DePaul is shit, but in 2005, they actually won a share of the C-USA title.
* UAB has made two NCAA Tournaments since the C-USA 2005 realignment, despite playing a much weaker schedule
* Even Southern Miss has put up five 20-win seasons, made the NCAA Tournament as recently as 2012

So if you're comparing 2004-05 Conference USA to the 2014-15 AAC (which, let's be honest, is the form of the AAC. They get credit for Louisville this year, but they also have the albatross of Rutgers), it's pretty hard to argue the two leagues are equivalent, when you consider the disparity in performance results between the other AAC members, and the other C-USA members both at the time of the realignment, and since. The AAC DREAMS of being 2004-05 Conference USA.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:38 pm

I think you are kind of too fond on the old CUSA...

look at 2003 CUSA.. 14 teams
Marquette 3, Louisville 4, Memphis 7, Cincy 8 made the tourney.

7/14 teams had Ken Pom rating 100 or worse.

#7 conference.

2004- #8 conference, even with 6 tourney teams.
2005- #9 conference, with 4 tourney teams

You can't use what schools are like today for the CUSA back then. SLU for instance was horrible. 9-21 one year. So Miss had losing years all 3 years. Conference averaged 5.3 teams per year in those 3 years with losing overall records. 6 with .500 or worse records.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby billyjack » Wed Jan 08, 2014 12:41 pm

AAC on TV...?
I think I've only seen UConn once, Louisville once and Cincinnati play Xavier and Pitt.
UCF, USF, Rutgers, Houston, Temple and SMU I haven't seen at all. It's like half the conference doesn't even exist.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 08, 2014 1:11 pm

billyjack wrote:AAC on TV...?
I think I've only seen UConn once, Louisville once and Cincinnati play Xavier and Pitt.
UCF, USF, Rutgers, Houston, Temple and SMU I haven't seen at all. It's like half the conference doesn't even exist.

UConn was on 3 times in the first 2 weeks with the Maryland and then tournament at MSG. Louisville I agree with you. Cincy those 2 plus last weeks Memphis game...

Memphis has been on a lot(like they're trying to pump them up big time).

Houston was on NYE vs UConn. SMU Saturday vs UConn.

think tomorrow is Cincy/Louisville if i'm not mistaken...
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby notkirkcameron » Wed Jan 08, 2014 3:49 pm

stever20 wrote:I think you are kind of too fond on the old CUSA...

look at 2003 CUSA.. 14 teams
Marquette 3, Louisville 4, Memphis 7, Cincy 8 made the tourney.

7/14 teams had Ken Pom rating 100 or worse.

#7 conference.

2004- #8 conference, even with 6 tourney teams.
2005- #9 conference, with 4 tourney teams

You can't use what schools are like today for the CUSA back then. SLU for instance was horrible. 9-21 one year. So Miss had losing years all 3 years. Conference averaged 5.3 teams per year in those 3 years with losing overall records. 6 with .500 or worse records.


Perhaps, but taking a long-term view at the AAC, I think you may be viewing them too optimistically.

* Louisville is gone after this season, replaced by three teams, the highest-ranked of which in the KenPom ratings is Tulsa at #166. East Carolina follows at #172, then Tulane all the way down at #304. So the AAC loses one perennial tournament team, and replaces it with three schools who, respectively, haven't been to the tournament in 11 years (Tulsa), and the other two combine for 5 NCAA Tournament appearances in their entire program histories, and only three NCAA Tournament wins (all Tulane's), none of which occurred after 1995.

* Is it more likely that SMU uses the AAC as a launching pad to bigger and better things, or is it more likely that their early-season success this year, which so far seems to only consist of beating UConn (at home) is a flash in the pan, and they'll revert to the form that has seen them miss the NCAA Tournament every year since 1993? SMU's only other win against a member of a power conference this year is on a neutral floor over 9-4 Texas A&M; a team that lost to North Texas by 20...at home. SMU's KenPom ratings the last 10 years are as follows: (138, 130, 195, 180, 290, 208, 156, 160, 206, and 186).

*I'll agree, you can probably count on Memphis, Cincy, and UConn to be tournament contenders for at least the near term future....but what after that? After Louisville leaves for the ACC, and assuming SMU reverts to form, those three teams are the only ones in the tournament discussion. The next-highest ranked KenPom member of the AAC is Temple at #108, a team that hasn't been past the first weekend since 2001 and is in the process of blowing up their athletic department. After that, it's Central Florida at #129, a team that has never won an NCAA Tournament game at the Division I level. It only goes downhill from there when you look at SMU, ECU, USF, Houston, Tulsa, and Tulane

With only (at most) 3 out of 11 American teams in tournament discussion (God forbid one of them have a down season), you're not the old C-USA or even the new Big East. You're a gussied-up A-10 with mediocre football.
Last edited by notkirkcameron on Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Week 2 Rankings

Postby stever20 » Wed Jan 08, 2014 4:01 pm

notkirkcameron wrote:
stever20 wrote:I think you are kind of too fond on the old CUSA...

look at 2003 CUSA.. 14 teams
Marquette 3, Louisville 4, Memphis 7, Cincy 8 made the tourney.

7/14 teams had Ken Pom rating 100 or worse.

#7 conference.

2004- #8 conference, even with 6 tourney teams.
2005- #9 conference, with 4 tourney teams

You can't use what schools are like today for the CUSA back then. SLU for instance was horrible. 9-21 one year. So Miss had losing years all 3 years. Conference averaged 5.3 teams per year in those 3 years with losing overall records. 6 with .500 or worse records.


Perhaps, but taking a long-term view at the AAC, I think you may be viewing them too optimistically.

* Louisville is gone after this season, replaced by three teams, the highest-ranked of which in the KenPom ratings is Tulsa at #166. East Carolina follows at #172, then Tulane all the way down at #304. So the AAC loses one perennial tournament team, and replaces it with three schools who, respectively, haven't been to the tournament in 11 years (Tulsa), and the other two combine for 5 NCAA Tournament appearances in their entire program histories, and only three NCAA Tournament wins (all Tulane's), none of which occurred after 1995.

* Is it more likely that SMU uses the AAC as a launching pad to bigger and better things, or is it more likely that their early-season success this year, which so far seems to only consist of beating UConn (at home) is a flash in the pan, and they'll revert to the form that has seen them miss the NCAA Tournament every year since 1993? SMU's only other win against a member of a power conference this year is on a neutral floor over 9-4 Texas A&M; a team that lost to North Texas by 20...at home.

*I'll agree, you can probably count on Memphis, Cincy, and UConn to be tournament contenders for at least the near term future....but what after that? After Louisville leaves for the ACC, and assuming SMU reverts to form, those three teams are the only ones in the tournament discussion. The next-highest ranked member of the AAC is Temple at #108, a team that hasn't been past the first weekend since 2001. After that, it's Central Florida, a team that has never won an NCAA Tournament game at the Division I level. It only goes downhill from there.

With only (at most) 3 out of 11 American teams in tournament discussion (God forbid one of them have a down season), you're not the old C-USA or even the new Big East. You're a gussied-up A-10 with mediocre football.

If it was 3/11- that is very close to 4/14(what CUSA was back then). Temple may not have made it past 1st weekend since 2001, but they had 7 straight tourney appearances going into this year. So it's pretty easily to see them pick it back up. As far as SMU- Don't see much for them to go up from the AAC quite frankly. Big 12 not an option nor SEC. Houston has looked a lot better now(in Ken Pom they've gone up 54 spots in the last 8 days). And the other programs have a chance. UCF is a good program overall(they're the one that I think is the major flight risk quite frankly).
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