New Year's Eve - St John's at Xavier 12pm ET FS1

[Lavinwood]

This board is really starting to get fun...

About 12 hours from now it gets even more fun...

[BEX]

The 'Cuse game would have been pretty impressive if you actually closed the deal.

[Lavinwood]

The 'Cuse game would have been pretty impressive if you actually closed the deal.

Well yeah…no one wanted that win more than our program, but Cuse is Cuse and they found a way to avoid a huge upset. That's just what good teams do. My point though was that if we can give Cuse a heart attack with a minute left, we will not be shaking in our boots vs. Xavier.

[NJRedman]

The 'Cuse game would have been pretty impressive if you actually closed the deal.

Ask our friends down in Philly just how hard it is to close the deal against those guys.

[SJUREDMEN85]

No intimidation needed. X wins 90% of their home games. Just a fact.

181-25 88%. So you think because they have a great record there that it`s an automatic win?
They still have 25 losses there, so every now and then they do lose.

[SJUREDMEN85]

Since you specifically quoted me, where did I say Xavier was going to cruise to the win? Find it and show it to me. Maybe you can get NJ Redman's help too, as he apparently reached the same erroneous conclusion. You'll both waste a lot of time, though, because you won't find that claim. You SJ fans are a defensive bunch...seems to lead you to read way too much into people's posts that are potentially critical of St. John's in any way. I'll list my points:

I think Xavier is a slighly better team than St. John's.
The home team also receives a little edge.
Therefore, Xavier would win more than 50 out of 100 games in a simulation of this scenario.

Kenpom predicts a 72% probability of Xavier winning. If you know anything about Kenpom, you know that doesn't automatically mean the prediction of an easy win. An easy win is more probable for Xavier than St. John's, but still, an easy win either direction isn't the most probable outcome overall. In fact, Kenpom also projects only a 5-point win. Very similar to Vegas' prediction of a close game. Xavier is also the more probable victor of winning a close game, though, by virtue of being the slightly higher rated team and the home team.

I never meant you said you'd cruise to a win. I was referring to nearly 85% of the votes going for X. That's the kind of voting I'd expect with Xavier playing NJIT. I think home court advantage is being overstated here. We beat #16 Cincy at their own place last year. We barely lost to Duke at Cameron as all freshmen. So I'm not sure why some people are so sure of the outcome. 85% voting implies it's decided. Xavier is a very good team. And so is SJ. So I'm not sure why people are acting like teams are at different levels. Home court only helps if you execute. It's overstated in terms of the effect it has. I'd feel no better at MSG with SJ playing other good teams. You said something similar to X wins 90% of their games at Cintas. I'd like to know how many are top 40 caliber like SJ. I'd venture a guess that many are well outside that range and it would be a lot more like 65-70% against stiffer competition. It's not like the Carrier Dome or Cameron. This is not the 2012 SJ team with lots of freshmen diaper dandies. This is a veteran team with the 2nd leading scorer in the conference (Harrison), the best blocker in the nation (Obekpa), and a potential ROY candidate in Jordan our 5 star PG. That doesn't even include Sampson who can dominate games all by himself, or Sanchez who is also dangerous. We also have one of the best defenders in the conference in Pointer. Jordan also plays very good D in addition to getting to the paint with ease.

I'm aware Xavier is also stacked. It's one of those games I think can go either way. I'm not scared, but I'm not confident either. I'm sure Lavin told the team that this 3 game opening stretch can be the difference between our tournament berth or lack thereof. After X we have G'Town and Nova which will be very tough. In other words, the guys should get up for this game. I think 2 teams that are very similar to us are Xavier and Marquette. So I just can't see either one dominating the other. That's why I was so shocked to see 85% picked X. Butler vs. Nova was something like 45% vs. 55% respectively. Why is it so different? Is Butler lightyears ahead of SJ? I think that would be dead wrong. But whatever, I hope Xavier takes us lightly! SJ in the underdog role thrives. I won't be surprised if X wins, but I won't be surprised if we win either. Home court advantage should not represent an 85% chance of winning…that's just crazy.

[SJUREDMEN85]

Since you specifically quoted me, where did I say Xavier was going to cruise to the win? Find it and show it to me. Maybe you can get NJ Redman's help too, as he apparently reached the same erroneous conclusion. You'll both waste a lot of time, though, because you won't find that claim. You SJ fans are a defensive bunch...seems to lead you to read way too much into people's posts that are potentially critical of St. John's in any way. I'll list my points:

I think Xavier is a slighly better team than St. John's.
The home team also receives a little edge.
Therefore, Xavier would win more than 50 out of 100 games in a simulation of this scenario.

Kenpom predicts a 72% probability of Xavier winning. If you know anything about Kenpom, you know that doesn't automatically mean the prediction of an easy win. An easy win is more probable for Xavier than St. John's, but still, an easy win either direction isn't the most probable outcome overall. In fact, Kenpom also projects only a 5-point win. Very similar to Vegas' prediction of a close game. Xavier is also the more probable victor of winning a close game, though, by virtue of being the slightly higher rated team and the home team.

I never meant you said you'd cruise to a win. I was referring to nearly 85% of the votes going for X. That's the kind of voting I'd expect with Xavier playing NJIT. I think home court advantage is being overstated here. We beat #16 Cincy at their own place last year. We barely lost to Duke at Cameron as all freshmen. So I'm not sure why some people are so sure of the outcome. 85% voting implies it's decided. Xavier is a very good team. And so is SJ. So I'm not sure why people are acting like teams are at different levels. Home court only helps if you execute. It's overstated in terms of the effect it has. I'd feel no better at MSG with SJ playing other good teams. You said something similar to X wins 90% of their games at Cintas. I'd like to know how many are top 40 caliber like SJ. I'd venture a guess that many are well outside that range and it would be a lot more like 65-70% against stiffer competition. It's not like the Carrier Dome or Cameron. This is not the 2012 SJ team with lots of freshmen diaper dandies. This is a veteran team with the 2nd leading scorer in the conference (Harrison), the best blocker in the nation (Obekpa), and a potential ROY candidate in Jordan our 5 star PG. That doesn't even include Sampson who can dominate games all by himself, or Sanchez who is also dangerous. We also have one of the best defenders in the conference in Pointer. Jordan also plays very good D in addition to getting to the paint with ease.

I'm aware Xavier is also stacked. It's one of those games I think can go either way. I'm not scared, but I'm not confident either. I'm sure Lavin told the team that this 3 game opening stretch can be the difference between our tournament berth or lack thereof. After X we have G'Town and Nova which will be very tough. In other words, the guys should get up for this game. I think 2 teams that are very similar to us are Xavier and Marquette. So I just can't see either one dominating the other. That's why I was so shocked to see 85% picked X. Butler vs. Nova was something like 45% vs. 55% respectively. Why is it so different? Is Butler lightyears ahead of SJ? I think that would be dead wrong. But whatever, I hope Xavier takes us lightly! SJ in the underdog role thrives. I won't be surprised if X wins, but I won't be surprised if we win either. Home court advantage should not represent an 85% chance of winning…that's just crazy.

Lavin but see, I like nearly 85% picked X. IF (see the IF, X fan? Don`t want to be accused of SJU will win.) SJU wins then the majority will be like "oh damn sju won". That makes me smile.
Less then 9hrs to go, I been amped for the game since the BE schedule came out.

[Edrick]

I'm surprised by the entire tenor of this thread. Maybe it's because they've been bad so long but I can't fathom how St. John's fans actually like THIS team.

I'd be calling for Lavin's head if this is what I got from the players he's working with. The team plays dumb basketball as simple as that.

What's truly unfortunate is that after this year, they'll start retracing - this was the chance. They've been the 7th best in the league.

Oh yeah, XU by 11.

[XUFan09]

Since you specifically quoted me, where did I say Xavier was going to cruise to the win? Find it and show it to me. Maybe you can get NJ Redman's help too, as he apparently reached the same erroneous conclusion. You'll both waste a lot of time, though, because you won't find that claim. You SJ fans are a defensive bunch...seems to lead you to read way too much into people's posts that are potentially critical of St. John's in any way. I'll list my points:

I think Xavier is a slighly better team than St. John's.
The home team also receives a little edge.
Therefore, Xavier would win more than 50 out of 100 games in a simulation of this scenario.

Kenpom predicts a 72% probability of Xavier winning. If you know anything about Kenpom, you know that doesn't automatically mean the prediction of an easy win. An easy win is more probable for Xavier than St. John's, but still, an easy win either direction isn't the most probable outcome overall. In fact, Kenpom also projects only a 5-point win. Very similar to Vegas' prediction of a close game. Xavier is also the more probable victor of winning a close game, though, by virtue of being the slightly higher rated team and the home team.

I never meant you said you'd cruise to a win. I was referring to nearly 85% of the votes going for X. That's the kind of voting I'd expect with Xavier playing NJIT. I think home court advantage is being overstated here. We beat #16 Cincy at their own place last year. We barely lost to Duke at Cameron as all freshmen. So I'm not sure why some people are so sure of the outcome. 85% voting implies it's decided. Xavier is a very good team. And so is SJ. So I'm not sure why people are acting like teams are at different levels. Home court only helps if you execute. It's overstated in terms of the effect it has. I'd feel no better at MSG with SJ playing other good teams. You said something similar to X wins 90% of their games at Cintas. I'd like to know how many are top 40 caliber like SJ. I'd venture a guess that many are well outside that range and it would be a lot more like 65-70% against stiffer competition. It's not like the Carrier Dome or Cameron. This is not the 2012 SJ team with lots of freshmen diaper dandies. This is a veteran team with the 2nd leading scorer in the conference (Harrison), the best blocker in the nation (Obekpa), and a potential ROY candidate in Jordan our 5 star PG. That doesn't even include Sampson who can dominate games all by himself, or Sanchez who is also dangerous. We also have one of the best defenders in the conference in Pointer. Jordan also plays very good D in addition to getting to the paint with ease.

I'm aware Xavier is also stacked. It's one of those games I think can go either way. I'm not scared, but I'm not confident either. I'm sure Lavin told the team that this 3 game opening stretch can be the difference between our tournament berth or lack thereof. After X we have G'Town and Nova which will be very tough. In other words, the guys should get up for this game. I think 2 teams that are very similar to us are Xavier and Marquette. So I just can't see either one dominating the other. That's why I was so shocked to see 85% picked X. Butler vs. Nova was something like 45% vs. 55% respectively. Why is it so different? Is Butler lightyears ahead of SJ? I think that would be dead wrong. But whatever, I hope Xavier takes us lightly! SJ in the underdog role thrives. I won't be surprised if X wins, but I won't be surprised if we win either. Home court advantage should not represent an 85% chance of winning…that's just crazy.

That explains it. Since you were quoting me, it looked like you were citing my post as a specific example (there were much better posts that you could have quoted). I wasn't the one that mentioned Xavier's record at Cintas, can't remember who did.

As for the bolded part, if you want to argue that, you probably want to expand it to all Big East games. I mentioned it earlier in this thread, I think, but here are the initial common questions when deciding whether to pick a team to win:

1) Are they the home team?
2) Are they playing Seton Hall or DePaul?
3) Are they Villanova? (though apparently that doesn't count in this first game)

If all these come back negative, most people won't pick them. It's nothing specific to this matchup for many people...it's simply the formula. And it will probably be a pretty safe formula this season, with the exceptions proving the rule.

[Irishdawg]

I picked X because I think it will keep the board more entertaining.

More than likely, it's going to be a low-scoring defensive game. Both teams are really good defensively, with solid, but not great offenses. Turnovers and rebounds will likely decide it. Xavier is great on the glass, but not so great at taking care of the ball. St. John's is great at taking care of the ball, and just slightly above average on the boards. Will be an interesting matchup either way, and a great way to kick off the marathon.