Bubble Watch

[gofriars08]

Stephen F Austin has an RPI of 69. If they lose a game it likely knocks them out of any at-large consideration. Buffalo would be in a precarious position with a loss, and same goes for ODU.

[HoosierPal]

Stephen F Austin has an RPI of 69. If they lose a game it likely knocks them out of any at-large consideration. Buffalo would be in a precarious position with a loss, and same goes for ODU.

Buffalo is sitting at RPI 42 today. Their record of 17-9 isn't impressive. Old Dominion sits at RPI 48 at 20-6. Iona is sitting at RPI 45 with 23 wins, so they are in the same discussion.

Last year Southern Miss of CUSA did not get in the Dance with a RPI of 33 even with 27 wins. Toledo of the MAC got snubbed at RPI 38, again with 27 wins. Iona got the cold shoulder last year with an RPI of 59. They 'only' had 22 wins.

The NCAA doesn't just run the RPI and select the tourney teams numerically. They use a variety of factors to determine the at-large teams. Every year the list of snubbed teams gives good fodder for message boards.

[Bill Marsh]

Stephen F Austin has an RPI of 69. If they lose a game it likely knocks them out of any at-large consideration. Buffalo would be in a precarious position with a loss, and same goes for ODU.

Buffalo is sitting at RPI 42 today. Their record of 17-9 isn't impressive. Old Dominion sits at RPI 48 at 20-6. Iona is sitting at RPI 45 with 23 wins, so they are in the same discussion.

Last year Southern Miss of CUSA did not get in the Dance with a RPI of 33 even with 27 wins. Toledo of the MAC got snubbed at RPI 38, again with 27 wins. Iona got the cold shoulder last year with an RPI of 59. They 'only' had 22 wins.

The NCAA doesn't just run the RPI and select the tourney teams numerically. They use a variety of factors to determine the at-large teams. Every year the list of snubbed teams gives good fodder for message boards.

All good points. Although I'm not in on the committee's discussions, I suspect you're right on the money. To make matters worse, the SOS for these 3 teams and others like them will only get worse as they go through their conference tournaments,

Buffalo is the one case of the 3 that I could see getting consideration if they are upset in their tournament because they have a top 100 SOS, but even they have a weak argument.

[stever20]

I think the team that would bare watching should they lose in their title game is Old Dominion. They have the big win over VCU- something none of those others can match.

1 thing that kills Buffalo IMO is how the MAC does their tourney. 5-12 play each other in first round, then 5 plays 8 and 6 plays 7 in the next round. Then the 5/8 winner plays 4 and 6/7 winner plays 3. Those winners play 1 and 2.

So right now Buffalo 1st 2 rounds would have to play Ball St (#259) and then Miami (247). Just would kill the RPI
by comparison ODU would be 4 seed- plays 5 Western Kentucky(#122) in QF, La Tech in SF(#66), and UTEP in title game(#60). They win their last 4 regular season games and then 2-1 in tourney, they would be 26-7. RPI forecast has that as a 27.3 RPI with that record.

[Dew]

I don't think a win over VCU matters all that much anymore in the grand scheme of things.

[stever20]

I don't think a win over VCU matters all that much anymore in the grand scheme of things.

why not? VCU still a top 20 RPI team and that win was done with them at full strength. ODU at 26-7 I think would have a real good chance to make the tourney at large. They have something that Southern Miss didn't have last year- and that's a top OOC win. And don't let your feelings about VCU get in the way- that is a top OOC win.

[GumbyDamnit!]

ODU 6-2 vs. the RPI Top 100

Tulsa 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Temple 6-8 vs. Top 100

Hmmm....

[stever20]

ODU 6-2 vs. the RPI Top 100

Tulsa 4-5 vs. RPI Top 100

Temple 6-8 vs. Top 100

Hmmm....

ODU 4 sub 100 losses
Tulsa 1 sub 100 loss
Temple 2 sub 100 losses(1 being vs 101)

[Dew]

I don't think a win over VCU matters all that much anymore in the grand scheme of things.

why not? VCU still a top 20 RPI team and that win was done with them at full strength. ODU at 26-7 I think would have a real good chance to make the tourney at large. They have something that Southern Miss didn't have last year- and that's a top OOC win. And don't let your feelings about VCU get in the way- that is a top OOC win.

You could also argue the VCU got crushed against the only two really good teams they played - Nova and UVA. Crushed. They beat Northern Iowa but that team hasn't beaten anyone so I have a hard time putting them in the Top 20.

[stever20]

I don't think a win over VCU matters all that much anymore in the grand scheme of things.

why not? VCU still a top 20 RPI team and that win was done with them at full strength. ODU at 26-7 I think would have a real good chance to make the tourney at large. They have something that Southern Miss didn't have last year- and that's a top OOC win. And don't let your feelings about VCU get in the way- that is a top OOC win.

You could also argue the VCU got crushed against the only two really good teams they played - Nova and UVA. Crushed. They beat Northern Iowa but that team hasn't beaten anyone so I have a hard time putting them in the Top 20.

VCU beat OOC Oregon and Cincy as well. 2 very possible tourney teams. There is no shame in losing to Nova and UVA. NONE. VCU with the #14 SOS this year. Played 2 teams OOC with a RPI worse than 150- and none over 200. 9 games in the top 100 OOC. VCU is still a very meaningful win.