XUFan09 wrote:Hall2012 wrote:LOL Seton Hall's NET ranking went down after beating Villanova. $50 says changing the name on their jerseys to "Ohio State" or "Clemson" would make it skyrocket.
Or home court actually matters. On Kenpom, the game was a virtual coin flip, and Seton Hall only won by 4. I imagine the NET formula followed some similar pattern. I don't like that we don't know how NET is calculated, but we do know it is in part an efficiency metric. If a game result doesn't deviate much from what an efficiency metric expects, then the metric won't adjust much.
Anyway, NET is primarily used to evaluate the quality of one's opponents. The fact that Villanova is #25 is far more important to Seton Hall than the fact that they themselves are #62.
Hall2012 wrote:XUFan09 wrote:Hall2012 wrote:LOL Seton Hall's NET ranking went down after beating Villanova. $50 says changing the name on their jerseys to "Ohio State" or "Clemson" would make it skyrocket.
Or home court actually matters. On Kenpom, the game was a virtual coin flip, and Seton Hall only won by 4. I imagine the NET formula followed some similar pattern. I don't like that we don't know how NET is calculated, but we do know it is in part an efficiency metric. If a game result doesn't deviate much from what an efficiency metric expects, then the metric won't adjust much.
Anyway, NET is primarily used to evaluate the quality of one's opponents. The fact that Villanova is #25 is far more important to Seton Hall than the fact that they themselves are #62.
And that would be fine if it were just a tool for calculating SOS, but if it's used as presented - being a major factor in NCAA Tournament selection seeding, similar to RPI - then efficiency metrics are being far too heavily considered. Results are what should matter, not efficiency.
XUFan09 wrote:
Read my second paragraph again. It is about results. Seton Hall beat the #25 team in the nation on their home court. That's what matters. Villanova lost to the #62 team in the nation on the road. That's what matters. Efficiency is used to determine how tough a team's opponents are to play, not how well a team has done personally.
The NET is a major factor in NCAA seeding because it's used to judge who teams have played. The rankings are going to correlate strongly with seeding because of that, but that shouldn't be a surprise because on an aggregate level, a NET ranking somewhat approximates who a team beat and who they lost to. But correlation doesn't equal causation. Note that RPI was used in the exact same way, but people never seemed to get that because of they treated correlation as causation.
stever20 wrote:You really want to say Creighton gets in with just the win over Xavier.... I think it would hinge on how the bubble does go- are there any more bid thieves, etc.
I'd for sure add Providence to your list. If they beat Villanova and then Creighton/Xavier- they'd be 20-15.
I think we can say for sure though-
if Providence, Creighton, Xavier, or Georgetown loses tomorrow- they're out of contention for an NCAA bid. All 4 need at least 1 win here.
On Sunday March 10 Fieldhouse Flyer wrote:
NCAA MEN'S BASKETBALL NET RANKINGS - ncaa.com - Games through Saturday, March 9th
26 - Villanova
29 - Marquette
54 – Creighton
61 - Seton Hall
62 – Butler
66 - St. John's
71 – Xavier
74 – Providence
76 – Georgetown
101 - DePaul
25 - Villanova
28 - Marquette
52 – Creighton
59 - Seton Hall
64 – Butler
69 – Providence
70 – Xavier
72 - St. John's
82 – Georgetown
102 - DePaul
ON THE RISE
Xavier: The Musketeers (18-14) still look like they're a long shot to go dancing, but the win over Creighton gives some hope. If Xavier can beat Villanova on Friday, Selection Sunday will at least be worth watching.
FADING HOPES
Creighton: The Bluejays (18-14) have had a lot of tough losses this season and suffered another one on Thursday in a 63-61 loss to Xavier. Selection Sunday is going to be a nail-biter.
Georgetown: The Hoyas (19-13) got thumped by Seton Hall 73-57 . They still have a slim shot to get in the field, but that wasn't a good last impression.
FRIDAY'S IMPORTANT GAMES
Florida vs. No. 9 LSU, Ohio State vs. No. 6 Michigan State, Xavier vs. No. 25 Villanova, Alabama vs. No. 4 Kentucky, and Temple vs. Wichita State.
26 - Villanova
28 - Marquette
52 – Creighton
58 - Seton Hall
64 – Butler
68 – Xavier
70 – Providence
72 - St. John's
80 – Georgetown
102 - DePaul
26 - Villanova
28 - Marquette
53 – Creighton
57 - Seton Hall
64 – Butler
67 – Xavier
70 – Providence
73 - St. John's
82 – Georgetown
102 - DePaul
LAST FOUR IN
ST. JOHN’S (21-12, 8-10, NET 72, KenPom 79)
Q1: 5-7
Q2: 5-3
Best wins: Marquette (2), Villanova, VCU, at Creighton
Q3, Q4 losses: 2 (Georgetown, DePaul)
When St. John’s led Villanova deep into the second half on Jan. 8, the Johnnies appeared to be on track to make the NCAA tournament with ease. They were minutes away from improving to 15-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big East. Those days feel like a long time ago now given how the second half of the season has gone. A talented but erratic St. John’s team dropped 11 of its final 18 games to fall perilously close to the bubble. The argument in favor of St. John’s is a 10-10 record against the top two quadrants, including a total of three wins over Big East frontrunners Marquette and Villanova. The argument against the Johnnies is their soft non-conference strength of schedule, bloated computer numbers and sub.-500 record in a weaker-than-usual Big East.
BIG EAST
Locks: Marquette, Villanova, Seton Hall
Work to do: St. John's, Creighton, Georgetown, Xavier
St. John's Red Storm
St. John's was projected as a No. 11 seed going into the Marquette game, and Bubble Watch supposes, if a few more bubble teams had won a few more games this week, there could be a discussion on whether this team is now in real trouble. Chris Mullin's men were blown out 86-54 by Marquette, and the NET ranking attached to the Red Storm even going into a lopsided loss already was in the mid-60s. Now factor in that, in the eyes of the rating system, the Johnnies actually were playing a "home" game at Madison Square Garden when they were hammered by 32 points. Meaning this NET ranking could get ugly. Still, there also are two things going in this team's favor. First, even after the debacle against the Golden Eagles in the Big East tournament, St. John's is still 3-2 against Marquette and Villanova for the season. Second, well, the committee does have to get to 68 somehow. (Updated: March 14)
Creighton Bluejays
A two-point loss to Xavier in the Big East tournament probably leaves Creighton just short of the tournament field. The Bluejays covered a good deal of ground to make it that far, and a win against the Musketeers would have changed this picture considerably. Instead, CU has stopped playing at 18-14, leaving it difficult to point to any one facet of the profile that recommends Greg McDermott's team at the expense of other at-large candidates. Creighton's NET ranking is in the 50s, which is fine but not great, a description that also might apply to the 3-10 Quad 1 record and the 13-3 mark in Quads 2, 3 and 4. It was a spirited turnaround from 13-13, but it doesn't appear to be quite enough. (Updated: March 14)
Georgetown Hoyas
Georgetown gave this thing a run for its money when pretty much no one in mid-February saw the run coming, but it appears the Hoyas have come up short. Losing by 16 in your conference tournament quarterfinals (to Seton Hall) when you're being shown as "next four out" material does not customarily presage receiving an at-large bid. The all-freshman backcourt of James Akinjo and Mac McClung gives the Hoyas all kinds of hope for the future, and who knew before the season that this would be the fastest-paced team in Big East play? Alas, it just wasn't enough, apparently, to get into the field this time. (Updated: March 14)
Xavier Musketeers
Xavier needed that game against Villanova, and the Musketeers led for roughly 28 minutes of regulation before the Wildcats took the proceedings to overtime. You know the rest: Travis Steele's men came up short, and the same can almost certainly be said for XU's shot at at-large bid. At 18-15, the Musketeers are a respectable 4-9 against Quad 1 but just 8-6 against Quads 2 and 3. That, plus a lackluster NET ranking meant this team had to have that win against Nova. It almost happened. (Updated: March 15)
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