by notkirkcameron » Wed Jan 29, 2014 3:50 pm
Any expansion needs to be a game-changing program, not expansion for expansion's sake
1.) The Big Ten kept its membership constant for 40 years, and only added one team, who was a national power, Penn State.
2.) The SEC kept its membership constant for 25 years before it grabbed Arkansas and South Carolina to get to 12 and stage a football championship game.
3.) The ACC nabbed Virginia Tech, Miami, and BC to get to 12 and stage a football championship game.
4.) The Big Ten added Nebraska, (who with 11 National Championships, became the third-most successful program in the Big Ten after Michigan and Ohio State) to get to 12 and stage a football championship game.
5.) The Pac-10, to get to 12 and a football championship game, added Colorado, and only added Utah as an afterthought. Its original aim, if you recall, was to get Texas and Oklahoma, bringing Oklahoma State and Texas Tech along for the ride. Texas opted to stay put in the Big 12 with a better TV rights deal for Longhorn Network.
These were big time moves that dynamically changed the conference. Who are your basketball equivalents of Penn State, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Texas? Your game-changers that justify rocking the boat? I really don't see any out there right now, all respect to Saint Louis and what they've managed to do turning that program around.
Assuming you don't want to go outside your geographic concentration, your game changers are Connecticut, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Duke. None of them are likely to join the Big East, although if they are, I would say they are listed in order of likelihood, contingent on UConn coming to its senses and dropping its mid-major level FBS football, which is cannibalizing its basketball program, and Notre Dame perhaps figuring out that basketball visits from Duke and Carolina every other year aren't worth the strength-of-schedule-suck that is ACC football.
SLU isn't going anywhere. Richmond isn't going anywhere. VCU isn't going anywhere. The A-10 is effectively their ceiling for how high they can go outside of the Big East. UMass may well be heading to the AAC as their 12th team. Fine. Let them.
There's no need to rush. Sit back. Watch for the ACC (who, with football-centric members and basketball-centric members, and an unwieldy 15 teams most resembles the old Big East format). Watch to see if the Big 12 makes a move to get to 12 teams. But don't expand just for the sake of expanding.
Al McGuire: "What is this?"
Waiter: "Mr. McGuire, that is a cull lobster. Sometimes when the lobsters are in the tank, they fight. This one lost a claw."
Al McGuire: "Well then take this one away and bring me the winner."