Xavier AD says expanding to 12 schools within 5 years

[Bill Marsh]

Then what have they gained by waiting? Why not go to 12 right away?

If I recall from prior to the actual original expansion, it was rumored that the new Big East did not want to completely decimate the A10 by taking 4 teams in the same year that the conference was already losing Temple and Charlotte. Take two, let them reload, and then a couple of years later take two more. Also setting up the conference with only 3 new members was an easier transition. Finally when they now invite two new schools, they get to charge them a couple million dollar in entrance fees.

Thanks for the insights.

[Bill Marsh]

the graphs are great but unless they're populated with relevant data they simply add ?'s. taking quick peak at historical rpi over the last 3-4 seasons my gut says the "A" scenario would seem unlikely as the league woul be dragged down by some poor rpi's in the 7-10 slots, remember you have to play each of those 2 teams twice as well. That's 1 of the reasons for 12 and if this manifests itself this season the powers will move to 12 in a hurry. Somone with a lot of time on their hands could run these numbers for the last 3-4 seasons and you'd at least know where historically you'd fall but those rpi's will be somewhat inflated because they include games against high rpi teams that moving forward are not on NBE schedules.

The RPI is a horrible formula (.25 W% + .5 OWP + .25 OOWP where "O" = Opponent's). Theoretically it puts a premium on SOS without using margin of victory. There are ways to "game" the RPI, such as playing mostly beatable but relatively high RPI teams from weaker conferences. The Mountain West did a great job of that last year.

My point is that an RPI doesn't automatically rise or fall with RPI. You still have to win games to have a good RPI. Teams in the lower half of the Big East in the past have had teams that were impossible to beat, thereby lowering their RPI. Generally speaking, they were better than their record or RPI showed. I believe that the RPI of these same schools will actually improve with a more reasonable schedule.

But let's look at the RPI of the new Big East teams in the 7-10 slots over the past 3-4 years:

2012-13

90. Providence
94. St. John's
138. Seton Hall
204. DePaul

2011-12

119. Villanova
156. Providence
158. St. John's
197. DePaul

2010-11

102. Seton Hall
123. Creighton
154. Providence
234. DePaul

2009-10

82. St. John's
115. Creighton
140. Providence
212. DePaul

2008-09

72. Providence
101. Seton Hall
150. St. John's
206. DePaul

The 12th spot is obviously a disaster and the 11th is prett bad. But the 7th is pretty good and the 8th is not half bad. But here's the silver lining. Two of the teams consistently in the bottom 4 are St. John's and Providence, but those 2 programs are loaded right now and in both situations the coaches seem to have turned them around. And there's hope for Seton Hall. Only DePaul seems beyond redemption for now.

Just as important is the fact that there doesn't seem to be another program that looks like it is primed to replace any of those teams at the bottom unless Miller fails miserably at Butler. This group actually looks stronger at the bottom of the conference than the old Big East.

[BEwannabe]

In 2 of those 4 years the bottom 4 teams there isn't 1 of them in the top 100. That's with all the benefits outlined of the Old Big East. Try plugging in SLU, Dayton, Richmond, VCU and I'll bet in every scenario it's better.

[BEwannabe]

And that's why you need and will get expansion. The NBE will require more tea,s to go and perform ooc, 16 vs 18conf games more ooc chances for RPI improvement and regional rivalries. Bank it!

[Bill Marsh]

Wannabe, the last 5 years is an interesting look in the rear view mirror, but it's not what where we're headed. A website called College Sports Madness has predicted the top 144 teams in the country. You can see the discussion of this list on another thread. They are counting backwards, revealing a different team each day. So far they are up to #57. They also list where they expect each team to rank in their conference.

So far, DePaul didn't make the list so they're ranked somewhere worse than #144. Seton Hall, Xavier, and Providence have made the list, so we know where they rank and we know that everyone else is in the top 56. So, here's what the forecast is for the Big East's bottom 4 this year:

60. Providence
76. Xavier
109. Seton Hall
145+. DePaul

Do you see the improvement expected this year?

[Bill Marsh]

In 2 of those 4 years the bottom 4 teams there isn't 1 of them in the top 100. That's with all the benefits outlined of the Old Big East. Try plugging in SLU, Dayton, Richmond, VCU and I'll bet in every scenario it's better.

You'd like to know where SLU, Dayton, Richmond, and VCU finished in RPI the past 3-4 years?

2012-13
16. St Louis
25. VCU
91. Richmond
114. Dayton

2011-12
31. St Louis
38. VCU
81. Dayton
126. Richmond

2010-11
41. Richmond
49. VCU
70. Dayton
175. St Louis

2009-10
25. Richmond
54. Dayton
66. VCU
87. St Louis

2008-09
27. Dayton
50. VCU
123. St Louis
129. Richmond

The only one I'm seeing that will consistently improve the conference is VCU. The other 3 are all up and down. Since expansion is only to 12, you've got to pick just two, not 4.

[BEwannabe]

Wannabe, the last 5 years is an interesting look in the rear view mirror, but it's not what where we're headed. A website called College Sports Madness has predicted the top 144 teams in the country. You can see the discussion of this list on another thread. They are counting backwards, revealing a different team each day. So far they are up to #57. They also list where they expect each team to rank in their conference.

So far, DePaul didn't make the list so they're ranked somewhere worse than #144. Seton Hall, Xavier, and Providence have made the list, so we know where they rank and we know that everyone else is in the top 56. So, here's what the forecast is for the Big East's bottom 4 this year:

60. Providence
76. Xavier
109. Seton Hall
145+. DePaul

Do you see the improvement expected this year?

Preseason rankings are meaningless, the only purpose they serve is they give bball junkies something to talk about. There are going to be winners and losers in the new conference and quite possibly perennial cellar dwellers at 12 or 14 you change those dynamics. You're still going to have winner & losers but now you can play the losers less and simultaneously improve your ooc schedule with home games against better competition.

[Bill Marsh]

Wannabe, the last 5 years is an interesting look in the rear view mirror, but it's not what where we're headed. A website called College Sports Madness has predicted the top 144 teams in the country. You can see the discussion of this list on another thread. They are counting backwards, revealing a different team each day. So far they are up to #57. They also list where they expect each team to rank in their conference.

So far, DePaul didn't make the list so they're ranked somewhere worse than #144. Seton Hall, Xavier, and Providence have made the list, so we know where they rank and we know that everyone else is in the top 56. So, here's what the forecast is for the Big East's bottom 4 this year:

60. Providence
76. Xavier
109. Seton Hall
145+. DePaul

Do you see the improvement expected this year?

Preseason rankings are meaningless, the only purpose they serve is they give bball junkies something to talk about. There are going to be winners and losers in the new conference and quite possibly perennial cellar dwellers at 12 or 14 you change those dynamics. You're still going to have winner & losers but now you can play the losers less and simultaneously improve your ooc schedule with home games against better competition.

I agree they're meaningless. In fact, I think that Providence is greatly underrated on this list.

The more important point is that St. John's and Providence, both of whom have been stuck in the lower echelons of the conference are both loaded with more talent than either has had in almost a decade. College Sports Madness has recognized this by ranking them as high as they have. It's not legitimate to count wins before they've been earned, but it's highly likely that the strength of the conferene's 7-10 teams will be greatly improved this year.

While my comments are speculation, so is the comment from earlier in this thread wo which I've been responding, I.e. that the RPI of the conference's better teams will be dragged down by the lack of strength of the 7-10 teams. There's no basis for saying that any more than ther is for me pointing to evidence that prospects have improved.

[BEwannabe]

ok Bill both of us and others are speculating and thank you for providing the historical data which is what I would be inclined to use a a handicapper (most handicappers lean heavily on historical data) but of course a close eye on what is happening currently as D1 hoops, generally speaking ushers 25% of their roster out and replaces those players with 25 % new faces in each season.

I think it's easy to see why 4 names are on most lists and it starts with the data you provided. Personally I don't think Georgetown wants any part of VCU and Shaka Smart.

re: your forward look though, I know I will be surprised if Butler shows up in the top 60 with their 2 key losses and you have to remember Butler found the A10 a lot tougher than the Horizon as they found more nights than not their A10 opponent had a lot of talented players and coaches.

[Bill Marsh]

ok Bill both of us and others are speculating and thank you for providing the historical data which is what I would be inclined to use a a handicapper (most handicappers lean heavily on historical data) but of course a close eye on what is happening currently as D1 hoops, generally speaking ushers 25% of their roster out and replaces those players with 25 % new faces in each season.

I think it's easy to see why 4 names are on most lists and it starts with the data you provided. Personally I don't think Georgetown wants any part of VCU and Shaka Smart.

re: your forward look though, I know I will be surprised if Butler shows up in the top 60 with their 2 key losses and you have to remember Butler found the A10 a lot tougher than the Horizon as they found more nights than not their A10 opponent had a lot of talented players and coaches.

All good points.

You may well be right about Georgetown not wanting to promote an emerging power program in their own back yard. I hadn't thought about that.