The Next Five Years [ From 16 July 2018 ]

[Edrick]

Fairy tales are nice. It’s good this board has a spot for its own.

[adoraz]

What began as Adoraz's "Best Case scenario" with

adoraz wrote:
I think the best thing possible for the conference would be for the top 5 to look like this 5 years from now:

1. Georgetown
2. St. John's
3. Nova
4. DePaul
5. Marquette

Has devolved into a attendance pissing match. Gumby nailed it when he stated that a ranked Butler or Creighton would draw at MSG. The segue into who brings what to the BET is a diversion. Who cares as long as the BET is sold out.

Georgetown, St Johns, DePaul, Marquette ( sleeping giants (with the possible exception of DePaul) in major media markets with large alumni bases. Their ceiling are extremely high. ) Perhaps the move the "interest needle" a bit if they have a good season, but that would primarily affect tv viewing. I fail to see the implied shift of national perception and increased school respect. That takes 4-5 years (see Villanova example). If Gtwn or St Johns has a good year...great, but 1 year does not a trend make. Now, if the schools which have been good over these last 4-5 years continue to be good and/or improve ...

1 Xavier
2 Creighton
3 Providence
4 Villanova
5 Butler

now you're talking noteworthy, needle moving, and trendsetting. Given what we've seen from the "old school 3" and DePaul over the last 5 years...I can easily envision them continuing to muddle and to underachieve these next 5 years.

As for this...

Adoraz quote: Also, just wanted to point out that a lot of people here seem to think that one team's success means another team's failure. That is absolutely not true. Yes, obviously the Big East regular season rankings will be impacted, but that's it. We are not a conference of Top 25 teams with limited space at the top. Every single team, with the exception of Nova, can improve their OOC performance. If Creighton, for example, has a Top 10 year OOC next year it is not going to cost anyone in the conference a bid. It will do the opposite and help the conference out significantly.

Now, if Creighton goes 7-5 OOC and then goes 16-2 in conference that'd be a bad thing (even though they'd play themselves into a bid, so not THAT bad). The conference is way too strong for that to happen, though.

Was not talking ooc nor NCAA bids. Talking strictly if your old school teams rise, then one or more of Nova, X, Butler, Prov, Cr8n have to fall in the conference standings, period. Most schedule to have successful OOC seasons and that should not change. But if Gtwn goes 15-3, StJ goes 14-4, and Marq goes 13-5 some of the current top tier MUST fall. If only StJ and Gtwn rise, still 2 teams gotta fall back to the pack. With 10 tens you can't have a gaggle of teams btwn 13 and 16 wins. My original question was..."who falls?"

I know you're trying to get away from the MSG attendance, but your last point of "who cares as long as MSG is sold out" is incorrect. We had a GREAT year last where where we sold out I believe 3 sessions, but typically we only sell out the Finals and sometimes we don't even sell out that.

There's a reason SJU schedules a piss poor Georgetown at MSG every year and a solid Creighton at CA. I know it's not exactly the same as the MSG Tournament, but Creighton so far I believe has only sold out one game (vs the defending National Champions during the Finals in 2017). This year we had not only the Finals sold out, but also the semi finals. Creighton does an AMAZING job with attendance given their location, but I would bet that Georgetown, SJU, SHU, Nova and Providence would all outdraw them any given year, given they have the same W/L success. This is purely due to location and nothing else. I know how good Creighton's attendance for their home games is.

If SJU or Georgetown have a good year next year, that'd be HUGE. It'd impact recruiting a lot going forward. Both coaches are unproven at this point but could be reliable long term coaches.

As for "teams must fall" in the standings, yes that's true. I just don't ever see a scenario where we have Marq/Nova/SJU/GTown ALL getting 15/14/13 wins. That doesn't happen in the Big East. Far more likely is we'll have a bunch of teams at 10-8, 9-9, 8-10 and OOC performance will determine if they get into the Tournament. This year 50% of the conference was 10-8 or 9-9. 3-7 were separated by one game, and all but one of them made the Tournament.

[kayako]

2017 BET hype would've been through the roof without the injuries to Creighton and Xavier. Only St. John's can control how much they contribute to the BET, but their presence isn't a necessity if the tournament brings great teams to town. If there is no top 5 great team, 4 or 5 ranked teams would suffice.

[scoscox]

I know you're trying to get away from the MSG attendance, but your last point of "who cares as long as MSG is sold out" is incorrect. We had a GREAT year last where where we sold out I believe 3 sessions, but typically we only sell out the Finals and sometimes we don't even sell out that.

There's a reason SJU schedules a piss poor Georgetown at MSG every year and a solid Creighton at CA. I know it's not exactly the same as the MSG Tournament, but Creighton so far I believe has only sold out one game (vs the defending National Champions during the Finals in 2017). This year we had not only the Finals sold out, but also the semi finals. Creighton does an AMAZING job with attendance given their location, but I would bet that Georgetown, SJU, SHU, Nova and Providence would all outdraw them any given year, given they have the same W/L success. This is purely due to location and nothing else. I know how good Creighton's attendance for their home games is.

If SJU or Georgetown have a good year next year, that'd be HUGE. It'd impact recruiting a lot going forward. Both coaches are unproven at this point but could be reliable long term coaches.

As for "teams must fall" in the standings, yes that's true. I just don't ever see a scenario where we have Marq/Nova/SJU/GTown ALL getting 15/14/13 wins. That doesn't happen in the Big East. Far more likely is we'll have a bunch of teams at 10-8, 9-9, 8-10 and OOC performance will determine if they get into the Tournament. This year 50% of the conference was 10-8 or 9-9. 3-7 were separated by one game, and all but one of them made the Tournament.

MSG attendance is on the rise because the conference is getting older and more established. This year was our best year for attendance so far and georgetown lost in the first round and st. john's got demolished in the quarterfinals. Those were the only two rounds that didn't sell out. I guess we just had to wait for them to lose before people started showing up. But seriously, how does this year's tournament attendance help your narrative at all?

[Hall2012]

I think the take that any team(s) being at top the of the league being more beneficial than others is ridiculous. If we have multiple very good teams, the league will to do well regardless of school name or location. National television audiences care about quality, that's it. SJU may be able to draw a bigger local television audience than Creighton for example, but in either case the local audience is a very small portion of the national audience sizes that Fox and the Big East are after. And location/fan base size has little to no impact on that national audience/casual viewer.

[adoraz]

I know you're trying to get away from the MSG attendance, but your last point of "who cares as long as MSG is sold out" is incorrect. We had a GREAT year last where where we sold out I believe 3 sessions, but typically we only sell out the Finals and sometimes we don't even sell out that.

There's a reason SJU schedules a piss poor Georgetown at MSG every year and a solid Creighton at CA. I know it's not exactly the same as the MSG Tournament, but Creighton so far I believe has only sold out one game (vs the defending National Champions during the Finals in 2017). This year we had not only the Finals sold out, but also the semi finals. Creighton does an AMAZING job with attendance given their location, but I would bet that Georgetown, SJU, SHU, Nova and Providence would all outdraw them any given year, given they have the same W/L success. This is purely due to location and nothing else. I know how good Creighton's attendance for their home games is.

If SJU or Georgetown have a good year next year, that'd be HUGE. It'd impact recruiting a lot going forward. Both coaches are unproven at this point but could be reliable long term coaches.

As for "teams must fall" in the standings, yes that's true. I just don't ever see a scenario where we have Marq/Nova/SJU/GTown ALL getting 15/14/13 wins. That doesn't happen in the Big East. Far more likely is we'll have a bunch of teams at 10-8, 9-9, 8-10 and OOC performance will determine if they get into the Tournament. This year 50% of the conference was 10-8 or 9-9. 3-7 were separated by one game, and all but one of them made the Tournament.

MSG attendance is on the rise because the conference is getting older and more established. This year was our best year for attendance so far and georgetown lost in the first round and st. john's got demolished in the quarterfinals. Those were the only two rounds that didn't sell out. I guess we just had to wait for them to lose before people started showing up. But seriously, how does this year's tournament attendance help your narrative at all?

Those were not the only two rounds that didn't sell out... To my knowledge, none of the rounds prior to the Semis sold out. SJU's quarterfinals game was at noon on Thursday vs Xavier so that's not going to sell out especially with SJU being a 9 seed. The SJU vs Georgetown attendance seemed great to me, and by the time the second half came around (Marquette vs DePaul), the stadium started clearing out.

I am giving Nova the big majority of credit in terms of BET attendance for the past few years. A lot of fans are going to try and beat Nova, and obviously Nova fans themselves are coming out big time. The semis had Providence and Nova in them, so I'm not surprised they sold out.

Here's a question, has a Midwest vs Midwest team (half the conference) ever sold out at MSG? I'm not certain of the answer, but I don't think that's ever happened. That alone should tell you all you need to know.

[adoraz]

I think the take that any team(s) being at top the of the league being more beneficial than others is ridiculous. If we have multiple very good teams, the league will to do well regardless of school name or location. National television audiences care about quality, that's it. SJU may be able to draw a bigger local television audience than Creighton for example, but in either case the local audience is a very small portion of the national audience sizes that Fox and the Big East are after. And location/fan base size has little to no impact on that national audience/casual viewer.

So, if you asked the Big East's two largest partners, Fox and MSG, who they would rather have as the Top 3 in the conference for the next 5 years:

1. Georgetown
2. St. John's
3. Nova

or

1. Xavier
2. Creighton
3. Butler

Do you honestly think a single person at either would rather have the latter?

The former would lead to higher TV ratings and a larger contract. We'd also be 100% guaranteed to renew the MSG lease even if the ACC offers having it there every year.

It honestly feels like people are just being over sensitive about this. It is not only about the TV markets but also the size of the schools. The biggest are mostly in the largest cities (DePaul, SJU, Georgetown). That's not a coincidence, it's because the Big East when selecting these schools had more options in the larger cities and went with schools that not only had basketball success but also good size student bases.

Students at each (rounding up):
DePaul 24K
St. John's 20K
Georgetown 18K
Marquette 12K
Nova 11K
Seton Hall 10K
Creighton 8K
Xavier 6K
Butler 5K
Providence 5K

[Edrick]

Why do people talk themselves into thinking anyone cares about St Johns every offseason? If St Johns continue being St Johns (overwhelmingly likely), the Big East will continue being the Big East.

Otherwise, I understand that the overseason is about coming up with something to say, but hypotheticals with near 0% chance of happening seems like a waste of everyone’s time

[adoraz]

Why do people talk themselves into thinking anyone cares about St Johns every offseason? If St Johns continue being St Johns (overwhelmingly likely), the Big East will continue being the Big East.

Otherwise, I understand that the overseason is about coming up with something to say, but hypotheticals with near 0% chance of happening seems like a waste of everyone’s time

Well, obviously because you're posting in a hypothetical thread haha.

Don't get upset just because I think a good SJU would have more value for MSG/Fox than a good Butler. As you said, SJU never performs so you have nothing to fear.

[scoscox]

I know you're trying to get away from the MSG attendance, but your last point of "who cares as long as MSG is sold out" is incorrect. We had a GREAT year last where where we sold out I believe 3 sessions, but typically we only sell out the Finals and sometimes we don't even sell out that.

There's a reason SJU schedules a piss poor Georgetown at MSG every year and a solid Creighton at CA. I know it's not exactly the same as the MSG Tournament, but Creighton so far I believe has only sold out one game (vs the defending National Champions during the Finals in 2017). This year we had not only the Finals sold out, but also the semi finals. Creighton does an AMAZING job with attendance given their location, but I would bet that Georgetown, SJU, SHU, Nova and Providence would all outdraw them any given year, given they have the same W/L success. This is purely due to location and nothing else. I know how good Creighton's attendance for their home games is.

If SJU or Georgetown have a good year next year, that'd be HUGE. It'd impact recruiting a lot going forward. Both coaches are unproven at this point but could be reliable long term coaches.

As for "teams must fall" in the standings, yes that's true. I just don't ever see a scenario where we have Marq/Nova/SJU/GTown ALL getting 15/14/13 wins. That doesn't happen in the Big East. Far more likely is we'll have a bunch of teams at 10-8, 9-9, 8-10 and OOC performance will determine if they get into the Tournament. This year 50% of the conference was 10-8 or 9-9. 3-7 were separated by one game, and all but one of them made the Tournament.

MSG attendance is on the rise because the conference is getting older and more established. This year was our best year for attendance so far and georgetown lost in the first round and st. john's got demolished in the quarterfinals. Those were the only two rounds that didn't sell out. I guess we just had to wait for them to lose before people started showing up. But seriously, how does this year's tournament attendance help your narrative at all?

Those were not the only two rounds that didn't sell out... To my knowledge, none of the rounds prior to the Semis sold out. SJU's quarterfinals game was at noon on Thursday vs Xavier so that's not going to sell out especially with SJU being a 9 seed. The SJU vs Georgetown attendance seemed great to me, and by the time the second half came around (Marquette vs DePaul), the stadium started clearing out.

I am giving Nova the big majority of credit in terms of BET attendance for the past few years. A lot of fans are going to try and beat Nova, and obviously Nova fans themselves are coming out big time. The semis had Providence and Nova in them, so I'm not surprised they sold out.

Here's a question, has a Midwest vs Midwest team (half the conference) ever sold out at MSG? I'm not certain of the answer, but I don't think that's ever happened. That alone should tell you all you need to know.

The only two rounds before the semis are the quarterfinals and the first round which were the only rounds that didn’t sell out and the only rounds Georgetown, St. John’s, Marquette, DePaul, and seton hall played in. the only rounds that sold out were nova, butler, Xavier, and Providence. This is just a ridiculous narrative.

St. John’s hasn’t been good for 30 years and the big east and big east tournament have always been fine. Like I said, the only reason the tournament struggled was that the conference was new and new rivalries and teams had to be established. Now in year 5 we just had the highest attended conference tournament once again all without st Johns.