2015-16 Preview #2: Marquette

[GumbyDamnit!]

Very debatable if Dunn would have gotten in the lottery.

If you are where Dunn was- in that 14-18 range- you would be guaranteed only 5.2-4.3 million dollars. And some had him at 20 ish, which isn't even 4 million dollars.

IF Dunn can work up to even #11 this year- he gets a lot more- guaranteed 6,375,000

You have to account that Dunn is giving up a year of his prime earning potential. So even if he optimally gets the difference you mentioned 1-2 million, it wasn't for nothing. He gave up a year of NBA potential and is taking risks with his knees.

Agree Dude. First you can't just assume that he'll get hurt by playing the game if he were to go to the NBA early. He could blow out his knee again this year and drop to the 2nd round. So the whole knee risk is a moot point IMO. Secondly it's seldom about the first contract. It's all about being able to meet your market worth with the 2nd contract. When his rookie contract expires (a year earlier had he come out) Dunne is into the 8 figures instead of the 7 figures. Players like Jimmy Butler are learning all about the wonderful possibilities of being an NBA free agent. But to your point he can't get to year 5 (unrestricted FA) without playing out that rookie contract. I would think you would want to get to that point at an earlier age than a later one.

I think Jay Wright counsels his guys that if they are in position to be a first round pick then they should jump. I think that is solid advice.

[DudeAnon]

But let's not just say that he was a lock lottery selection. He wasn't.

Show me one mock draft where he wasn't a first round pick.

[stever20]

But let's not just say that he was a lock lottery selection. He wasn't.

Show me one mock draft where he wasn't a first round pick.

big difference between being a 1st round pick and a lottery pick(top 14). A lot of places had him right in that 20ish pick range, with the thought that if he did well in the process he could possibly work his way up into the lottery.

[Hoya33]

Ellenson and Dunn's situations are not the same. Big men have time to develop and point guards do not. Dunn made the right decision because, in the long term, he will make a lot more money. He had his flaws this draft ( injured, 11 turnovers against Kentucky and Marquette) next draft he might be Natioanl Payer of the Year. For point guards it is not enough to be a first round pick.

Last five drafts first two point guards picked:

2011-- Kylie Irving and Brandon knight

2012-- Dion waiters and Damian lillard

2013-- Trey Burke and Michael carter Williams

2014-- Dante exum and Marcus Smart

2015-- d'angelo Russell and Emanuel Mudiay

Other first round point guards

2011-- kemba walker, Jimmie Fredette, Nolan smith, Reggie Jackson, Norris cole, Corey Joseph

2012-- Austin rivers, Kendall Marshall, John Jenkins, tony wroten, marquis Teague

2013-- Dennis Schoeder, Shane Larkin, nedovic

2014-- Eldridge Payton, Tyler Ennis, Shabazz Napier

2015-- Cameron Payne, terry rozier, grant, Devon wright, tyus jones

I would be shocked if he was not one of the first two point guards taken next year and that will set him on a path for a lot of career earnings. My guess is that he will make more in endorsements next year than Payne, Rozier, Grant, wright, or Jones will make in salary. He made a very good career choice.

[hoyahooligan]

Ellenson and Dunn's situations are not the same. Big men have time to develop and point guards do not. Dunn made the right decision because, in the long term, he will make a lot more money. He had his flaws this draft ( injured, 11 turnovers against Kentucky and Marquette) next draft he might be Natioanl Payer of the Year. For point guards it is not enough to be a first round pick.

Last five drafts first two point guards picked:

2011-- Kylie Irving and Brandon knight

2012-- Dion waiters and Damian lillard

2013-- Trey Burke and Michael carter Williams

2014-- Dante exum and Marcus Smart

2015-- d'angelo Russell and Emanuel Mudiay

Other first round point guards

2011-- kemba walker, Jimmie Fredette, Nolan smith, Reggie Jackson, Norris cole, Corey Joseph

2012-- Austin rivers, Kendall Marshall, John Jenkins, tony wroten, marquis Teague

2013-- Dennis Schoeder, Shane Larkin, nedovic

2014-- Eldridge Payton, Tyler Ennis, Shabazz Napier

2015-- Cameron Payne, terry rozier, grant, Devon wright, tyus jones

I would be shocked if he was not one of the first two point guards taken next year and that will set him on a path for a lot of career earnings. My guess is that he will make more in endorsements next year than Payne, Rozier, Grant, wright, or Jones will make in salary. He made a very good career choice.

This all assumes that Dunn has a better season than last year, not a worse year. That's not guaranteed. He'll have a lot more attention on him. Both opposing defenses and scouts will be paying more attention. Defenses will game plan for him more this year and scouts will pick apart his game. It's pretty much 50/50 whether he'll improve his stock or hurt his stock.

[DudeAnon]

This all assumes that Dunn has a better season than last year, not a worse year. That's not guaranteed. He'll have a lot more attention on him. Both opposing defenses and scouts will be paying more attention. Defenses will game plan for him more this year and scouts will pick apart his game. It's pretty much 50/50 whether he'll improve his stock or hurt his stock.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner. Dunn could very easily have a worse season this year. Providence was easily a top 3 BE team skill wise. This year they are probably a bottom 3 BE team. He seems like a good kid so I hope the best for him, but I think he got bad advice.

[Hoya33]

We will not know until the next draft. My prediction is that he will be the first point guard taken and probably a top seven or five pick. Your prediction is that he got bad advice. I think he got great advice, because he is an unusual case, and made a smart decision. We will see who is right. I look forward to bumping this thread up in a year's time.

[Hoya33]

This all assumes that Dunn has a better season than last year, not a worse year. That's not guaranteed. He'll have a lot more attention on him. Both opposing defenses and scouts will be paying more attention. Defenses will game plan for him more this year and scouts will pick apart his game. It's pretty much 50/50 whether he'll improve his stock or hurt his stock.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner. Dunn could very easily have a worse season this year. Providence was easily a top 3 BE team skill wise. This year they are probably a bottom 3 BE team. He seems like a good kid so I hope the best for him, but I think he got bad advice.

Very easily have a worse season. What would that look like? Straight numbers drop?

You are also predicting a bottom three finish for Providence.

I look forward to revisiting this post after the season. These are some very clear predictions.

[hoyahooligan]

This all assumes that Dunn has a better season than last year, not a worse year. That's not guaranteed. He'll have a lot more attention on him. Both opposing defenses and scouts will be paying more attention. Defenses will game plan for him more this year and scouts will pick apart his game. It's pretty much 50/50 whether he'll improve his stock or hurt his stock.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner. Dunn could very easily have a worse season this year. Providence was easily a top 3 BE team skill wise. This year they are probably a bottom 3 BE team. He seems like a good kid so I hope the best for him, but I think he got bad advice.

Very easily have a worse season. What would that look like? Straight numbers drop?

You are also predicting a bottom three finish for Providence.

I look forward to revisiting this post after the season. These are some very clear predictions.

Sadly a worse year is not boosting his stats and performance as much as expected. Basically he has to be much better than last year or his game( especially turnovers) will get picked apart.

[Hoya33]

I understand what you are saying, but I disagree. He has to be good, but he is six- four, six - nine wingspan, great athlete, with unique vision. Melo Trimble, briscoe, and Jackson have to be a lot better because, with the exception of Jackson, they are not close to the athlete. That is my point, he is the top point in the draft and it is not close. Have you watched him play? It is a unique circumstance and why he followed good advice to make an excellent business decision to come back to school.