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Edrick wrote:The odds of a team beating a given team for a third time are no different than beating that team the first time, those are independent events.

i'd be curious if there was an actual mathematical study about this. I think sometimes a thing is just a bad matchup where for whatever reason, teams just don't matchup well with each other. I do think sometimes if there's 2 very close teams and 1 team wins both games extremely close, it is harder for that team to beat them a 3rd time. Just law of averages.

stever20 wrote:

Edrick wrote:The odds of a team beating a given team for a third time are no different than beating that team the first time, those are independent events.

i'd be curious if there was an actual mathematical study about this. I think sometimes a thing is just a bad matchup where for whatever reason, teams just don't matchup well with each other. I do think sometimes if there's 2 very close teams and 1 team wins both games extremely close, it is harder for that team to beat them a 3rd time. Just law of averages.

Steve, without any basis for it other than a hunch, I tend to agree with you. Here are 2 examples:

PC beat GU twice in 2 close games. I wouldn't think the Friars would want to tempt fate and have to face them again.

OTOH, Butler seems to be the kind of team that gives St. John's trouble. BU beat the Johnnies the first time by 4 and the next time by 23. Home court was a factor, but by itself it doesn't explain that big an increase in margin of victory. I think that Butler would be happy to see them again.

Edrick wrote:The odds of a team beating a given team for a third time are no different than beating that team the first time, those are independent events.

Not exactly. The second time two teams play, they have each had time to learn from the previous game. For example, Butler might have had an opportunity to analyze the first game against St. John's and learn what plays St. John's struggled to defend, then build off of that information. On the other hand, St. John's could have looked at the plays Butler did that the Johnnies struggled with and come up with better strategies than they used in the previous game.