Bracketology - January 26, 2015

[ruechalgrin]

With Xavier, Temple and Butler removed from the A10, VCU has quickly ascended to the top position in that conference. The A10, notwithstanding the number of bids it got last year, when it was an anomaly waiting to happen with some of its senior-ladden teams, is not what it used to be.

Villanova blew VCU off the floor earlier this season and would do the same were they to meet in the NCAA Tournament.

Beyond that match-up, I believe VCU would struggle to make it in the top 5 of the Big East were they a member of the Big East now. Playing havoc night in and night out in the Big East? Sure, run with that strategy.

UD would get slaughtered in this conference this and most years. They would especially get annihilated this year. due to the fact that they had to kick two players off their team due to them being compulsive thieves and terrible students, they're short in stature - tallest player is like 6'6" or something - and short rostered.

I am a Dayton fan who has not posted in 6 months and come in peace. As I stated on the board last year, the Big East had an off-season in year 1 and would recover this year and it has exceeded expectations. As I have repeatedly stated, the Big East is a materially better conference than the A-10 and while an anomaly year might occur (like 2013-2014), it is clear the Big East is vastly superior to the A-10.

However, based upon objective evidence neither VCU or Dayton would be slaughtered in the Big East the last two years and in fact would have been in the top 1/3rd of the conference in 2013-2014 and top 1/2 in 2014-2015. For the 2013-2014 season, assuming VCU and Dayton were in a 12 team Big East, VCU would have been #2 and Dayton #4 according to kenpom and RPI (we could look at sagarin elo without scoring margin, warren nolan, etc. and they all take a similar view). In 2014-2015, VUC would be #2 and Dayton #6. BTW, I prefer kenpom and warren nolan to RPI, but people look at rpi. As for the eye-test, Dayton has much better computer numbers than the ones above this year AFTER the dismissal of the 2 players and they have played teams with a lot of big men who were very physical over that stretch.

Just as I believed you were way too critical of the Big East last year, you may being a little too bullish this year (except for Xavier fans where everyone seems to be upset with Mack, but he has led Xavier to #19 in kenpom which is really impressive).

The detail of the computer polls are as follows: 2015 Kenpom (villanova #7, vic #16, Xavier #19, Butler #21, Georgetown #31, Dayton #37); 2014 kenpom (villanova #14, vcu #17, Creighton #21, Dayton #38); 2015 rpi (vcu #4, villanova #6, butler #16, providence #17, georgetown #20, Dayton #27); 2014 rpi (Villanova #8, creighton #17, VCU #19, Dayton #33).

I realize that hyperbole is more the norm than the exception in such posts, but I must correct your statement, above, concerning "...Xavier fans where everyone seems to be upset with Mack..." Actually, rue, the whiners on XU Boards are in the vast minority and most of them mercifully "go into hibernation" following every Xavier victory. Should we lose again this year, you can visit either XU Hoops or Musketeer Madness and find them again in their glory.

The fact is that most of Xavier fandom is fully aware that we have a great young-(ish) head coach and staff who work well together and are making the players believers in the Muskie system and bringing about improvement where it has been most needed.

Just reading XU Hoops and Musketeer Madness -- guess the vocal critics are yelling. I just think Mack is doing a very good to great job.

[Omaha1]

Dayton lost to UMASS tonight. A-10 could be a one bid league before it's said and done.

[Gopher+RamFan]

Dayton lost to UMASS tonight. A-10 could be a one bid league before it's said and done.

Doubtful, but certainly a possibility.

A10 is looking like a 2/3 bid league, possibility of 4 bids if some things happen. BE fans should root for VCU to win out, or at least beat other top 4 teams, as that should free up 1-2 at large spots.

FYI I'm not sure we'd beat Nova, but were certainly a much better team then we were earlier in the season - like most of Shaka Smarts teams.

[lquarles]

Actually we don't, we use a 1-2-2 three quarter court trap often

I stand corrected on that.

VCU's half-court defense has improved tremendously since the 'Nova game (Against A-10 teams), and I think we'd beat Nova convincingly today.

Our half-court defense was also horrible against Toledo and ODU. It's not the quality of the opponents, it's VCU's execution. They've been swarming lately.

Nova went on that 16-0 run in the second half because VCU started taking and bricking bad shots (Because Nova was playing stifling D and VCU is slighty above St. John's level in disciplined offensive shot selection, not a good recipe)

Shot selection and ball movement is still much better today from watching them. It really started with the Cincinnati game.

VCU would probably compete for a top 4 place in the BE, yes, but let's not overstate the level of the A-10. That GW team you brag about crushing also got crushed by Penn State. The BE is a serious step up from the A-10.

GW also beat Wichita State.

From looking at the current Bracketology I'd love a rematch with UVA in the Sweet 16 and a rematch with 'Nova in the Elite 8. VCU has improved all around dramatically while 'Nova has stayed about the same, got crushed by a Georgetown team that just lost to Xavier, 'Nova made Georgetown look like a national title contender.

[stever20]

Dayton lost to UMASS tonight. A-10 could be a one bid league before it's said and done.

Except for the fact that a loss to UMass right now is better than a loss to St John's. UMass RPI right now is 56 4 slots higher than St John's at 60. and it was a road loss for Dayton- so that doesn't hurt either...

It would take a LOT for the A10 to become a 1 bid league.

[ivet]

Dayton lost to UMASS tonight. A-10 could be a one bid league before it's said and done.

Doubtful, but certainly a possibility.

A10 is looking like a 2/3 bid league, possibility of 4 bids if some things happen. BE fans should root for VCU to win out, or at least beat other top 4 teams, as that should free up 1-2 at large spots.

FYI I'm not sure we'd beat Nova, but were certainly a much better team then we were earlier in the season - like most of Shaka Smarts teams.

I don't want to scare you.... But I heard from a little birdie that Shaka is taking over DePaul in 2 years. Oliver and him go way back....seriously.

[Xudash]

Dayton lost to UMASS tonight. A-10 could be a one bid league before it's said and done.

Doubtful, but certainly a possibility.

A10 is looking like a 2/3 bid league, possibility of 4 bids if some things happen. BE fans should root for VCU to win out, or at least beat other top 4 teams, as that should free up 1-2 at large spots.

FYI I'm not sure we'd beat Nova, but were certainly a much better team then we were earlier in the season - like most of Shaka Smarts teams.

I channel surfed my way into the UMASS/UD game tonight with about 10 minutes to go in the game. I had no idea UMASS stood at 10-9 overall going into the game. I suppose the weather accounted for the poor crowd. And the color commentator was terrible.

I think there was something like 4 straight turnovers on both ends of the court when I tuned in, with what appeared to be a sloppy game. To be fair, it was only one game, and VCU wasn't involved, but I doubt anyone stepped away from this contest finding tha A10 to be impressive. Again, it was one game and I only otherwise watched the Nova/VCU game and have had no other exposure to A10 play, but I'm kind of thinking that the A10 might cap out at 3 bids at most this year.

[Gopher+RamFan]

Dayton lost to UMASS tonight. A-10 could be a one bid league before it's said and done.

Doubtful, but certainly a possibility.

A10 is looking like a 2/3 bid league, possibility of 4 bids if some things happen. BE fans should root for VCU to win out, or at least beat other top 4 teams, as that should free up 1-2 at large spots.

FYI I'm not sure we'd beat Nova, but were certainly a much better team then we were earlier in the season - like most of Shaka Smarts teams.

I channel surfed my way into the UMASS/UD game tonight with about 10 minutes to go in the game. I had no idea UMASS stood at 10-9 overall going into the game. I suppose the weather accounted for the poor crowd. And the color commentator was terrible.

I think there was something like 4 straight turnovers on both ends of the court when I tuned in, with what appeared to be a sloppy game. To be fair, it was only one game, and VCU wasn't involved, but I doubt anyone stepped away from this contest finding tha A10 to be impressive. Again, it was one game and I only otherwise watched the Nova/VCU game and have had no other exposure to A10 play, but I'm kind of thinking that the A10 might cap out at 3 bids at most this year.

I agree, the A10 lost a lot this year - easily could see only 2/3 teams in the tourney. 4 would mean that VCU lost a few games, and all three of Davidson/GW/Dayton finished strong or won the conference tournament.

If you only watched the nova/VCU game and the flyer/UMass game, then I don't fault you. VCU is much improved, a 20 point beat down @Cincinatti should go a long way in the resume. Just hope we don't drop a couple bad games on the way to selection Sunday.

[Gopher+RamFan]

Dayton lost to UMASS tonight. A-10 could be a one bid league before it's said and done.

Doubtful, but certainly a possibility.

A10 is looking like a 2/3 bid league, possibility of 4 bids if some things happen. BE fans should root for VCU to win out, or at least beat other top 4 teams, as that should free up 1-2 at large spots.

FYI I'm not sure we'd beat Nova, but were certainly a much better team then we were earlier in the season - like most of Shaka Smarts teams.

I don't want to scare you.... But I heard from a little birdie that Shaka is taking over DePaul in 2 years. Oliver and him go way back....seriously.

That would be interesting and odd. Not a scare, Shaka will leave one day. We have the university and athletic leadership to make a good coaching hire, as we have done in the past decade (Capel, Anthony Grant, Shaka). Not saying we wouldn't miss a beat, but I'm fairly confident that our program wouldn't drop (our worst RPI in the last decade was at 80).

Hard to understand how someone would know what would occur 2 years from now. If Shaka wanted to follow in his former coaches footstep (yes I know he coached under Purnell), wouldn't he be better suited to following Donovan at Florida? Similar coaching styles, and he's more familiar with the SEC/ACC area down there (coached at Florida, Clemson).

Also, when Illinois offered, there apparently was talk that Shaka did not want to deal with Chicagos AAU circuit and recruiting. He would obviously need to do that if he went to DePaul. Many VCU fans have heard from other fans that they had inside information that Shaka would leave for "x" school. MD, NC State, Illinois, UCLA, my Gophers and finally Marquette ("done deal"). From what I've heard, he's never been remotely close to leaving, using other schools interests as leverage to improve the program: private jet for recruiting, higher salary for assistants etc...

I'm sure if Purnell isn't extended, DePaul would make a push for Shaka. Any program replacing a coach will obviously at least feign interest. No offense, but I doubt that Shaka is planning two years in advance to take the job. He may one day, but it seems too far away to create buzz. He certainly has ties to the area, and loves the Cubs.

[X Factor]

VCU is playing good ball right now, but they still only beat St. Louis (RPI - 207) by 2 points last week. If you don't bring your "A" game in the BE every night, you're gonna lose.

That's the biggest change from the A10 to the BE. Xavier could play poorly on some nights in the A10 and still win. That is not the case in the BE. Plus, the overall size in the BE is a lot greater than the A10. Every BE team has size, except Nova, but they are just so solid all over the court, it doesn't really matter.