Wed Jan 14th, 3 Games...

[stever20]

With the way parity is going-don't think you can say 6 is a lock at all. Georgetown and St John's going to be real nervous all the way. Providence probably put themselves in that situation again tonight. Those teams lose just about 1 more game than they are supposed to- they could be on the outside looking in real quickly. Right now Georgetown projected 17-12, Providence 19-12, and St John's 18-12. 1 extra loss for those 3- Georgetown 16-13, PC 18-13, SJ 17-13- and none would be able to overcome that.

And even Xavier better watch their record.

I think 6 is a very good chance of happening. I'd say probably 60% chance.
20% chance 7 teams
15% 5 teams
5% 4 teams(if the matchups for the tourney are wrong and the better teams win knocking out teams).

Steve, let's take a second look . . .

I don't know where you are getting your projections, but these are the projections I'm finding on RPI Forecast after adjusting for the St. John's upset last night:

Georgetown - 17-12
Providence -- 19-12
St. John's ---- 20-10

Yes, everyone could lose another game, but they could also win another game unexpectedly. If we're talking right now, that's all academic because it's unknown.

Basically I'd like to put this in context rather than looking at the Big East in isolation. After all, the committee has to pick someone to get to 68, so it's all relative. Here are the projected records of some other teams that will be in consideration, based on RPI Forecast:


18-11 - Oklahoma State
19-12 - Florida
19-12 - NC State
18-11 - South Carolina
18-12 - Georgia
19-11 - UConn

What do they all have in common? They're all from power conferences like the Big Easy where SOS means as much or more than W/L. We've seen teams with better records get passed over in recent years because their SOS didn't match their W/L, starting with SMU last year.

Right now the best we have to go on is RPI Forecast. By that standard, the Big East is in line for 7 bids based on where things stand right now. Any number of scenarios might and will play out - just like last year when PC won the BE Tournament. So, it's very unlikely that things in March will be the same as they are right now. That might be better, they might be worse. We'll just have to let it play out.

As far as I'm concerned,t he BE will probably get 8 bids after DePaul surprises everyone and wins the BE Tournament.

A few things...
1- St John's. They are projecting 9-9 for conference record, and 10-2 for OOC. Overall it may be 20-10, but if you add those 2 up it's 19-11. 19-11 is 45.5. Bubble.
2- St John's, Providence, Georgetown- all have mid 40 RPI's projected. All 3 are going to have to win at least 1 game in the BET to make the tourney. That's just the cold hard facts.

I agree with you that things may be better they may be worse. What I don't agree with is what billyjack said that 6 bids is a lock right now. Pretty much looking at the projected records that RPI forecast has- only Nova and Butler could afford an extra loss and feel real confidant about things. Maybe Xavier(though I think if that extra loss was another road one- their record away from Cintas- 2-6 right now- would start coming into play). Seton Hall gets an extra loss to fall to 19-11, and they are in that mid 40 pile needing a win in the BET to make the tourney.

Also- we've seen teams with bad SOS make the tourney. Wasn't it Middle Tennessee who made the tourney 2 years ago with a bad SOS? What we haven't seen is a team with a 17-13 type record make the tourney recently at all.

[redmen9194]

It is way too difficult to predict at this point because we all got what we wanted this season - a strong conference where every game is a grind and everyone might walk out of an arena with a loss. Nova is looking real good but they have a few losses in them down the road. This very much reminds me of the 2010-2011 Big East season. That year, the conference did really, really well out of conference. Then, when conference play started, every game was a crap shoot and teams grabbed a lot of quality wins. What is also true is what the issue was for St. John's - that is - you don't want to get mired in a losing streak because it becomes too tough to get out of it. The 1-3 start for the Johnnies means little to me now because they lost to good teams. It was important to get in the win column because will every loss you look at the schedule and say "OK, we are 0-2 and now play Nova. OK, we are 0-3 and have to play at the Dunk". It can spiral out of control. It's a great league and we have some really, really good basketball teams.

[NJRedman]

With the way parity is going-don't think you can say 6 is a lock at all. Georgetown and St John's going to be real nervous all the way. Providence probably put themselves in that situation again tonight. Those teams lose just about 1 more game than they are supposed to- they could be on the outside looking in real quickly. Right now Georgetown projected 17-12, Providence 19-12, and St John's 18-12. 1 extra loss for those 3- Georgetown 16-13, PC 18-13, SJ 17-13- and none would be able to overcome that.

And even Xavier better watch their record.

I think 6 is a very good chance of happening. I'd say probably 60% chance.
20% chance 7 teams
15% 5 teams
5% 4 teams(if the matchups for the tourney are wrong and the better teams win knocking out teams).

I'm sorry but who is projecting St. John's to lose 8 more games?

[RDinNY]

With the way parity is going-don't think you can say 6 is a lock at all. Georgetown and St John's going to be real nervous all the way. Providence probably put themselves in that situation again tonight. Those teams lose just about 1 more game than they are supposed to- they could be on the outside looking in real quickly. Right now Georgetown projected 17-12, Providence 19-12, and St John's 18-12. 1 extra loss for those 3- Georgetown 16-13, PC 18-13, SJ 17-13- and none would be able to overcome that.

And even Xavier better watch their record.

I think 6 is a very good chance of happening. I'd say probably 60% chance.
20% chance 7 teams
15% 5 teams
5% 4 teams(if the matchups for the tourney are wrong and the better teams win knocking out teams).

I'm sorry but who is projecting St. John's to lose 8 more games?

Hoyahooligan.

[hoyahooligan]

With the way parity is going-don't think you can say 6 is a lock at all. Georgetown and St John's going to be real nervous all the way. Providence probably put themselves in that situation again tonight. Those teams lose just about 1 more game than they are supposed to- they could be on the outside looking in real quickly. Right now Georgetown projected 17-12, Providence 19-12, and St John's 18-12. 1 extra loss for those 3- Georgetown 16-13, PC 18-13, SJ 17-13- and none would be able to overcome that.

And even Xavier better watch their record.

I think 6 is a very good chance of happening. I'd say probably 60% chance.
20% chance 7 teams
15% 5 teams
5% 4 teams(if the matchups for the tourney are wrong and the better teams win knocking out teams).

I'm sorry but who is projecting St. John's to lose 8 more games?

Hoyahooligan.

Where did I say that? I said gun to my head I might pick St. John's to finish 7th. Since they already have 3 losses, I don't expect them to lose 8 more games and finish 7th. That would make them 7-11. I think the 7th place team could finish 9-9 and just end up there from tie breakers. That would be 6 more losses. I just think their lack of depth will hurt St. Johns. St. John's still has games: @ Georgetown, @ Nova, @ Xavier, @ Butler. That's likely 4 losses right there.

[billyjack]

With the way parity is going-don't think you can say 6 is a lock at all. Georgetown and St John's going to be real nervous all the way. Providence probably put themselves in that situation again tonight. Those teams lose just about 1 more game than they are supposed to- they could be on the outside looking in real quickly. Right now Georgetown projected 17-12, Providence 19-12, and St John's 18-12. 1 extra loss for those 3- Georgetown 16-13, PC 18-13, SJ 17-13- and none would be able to overcome that.

And even Xavier better watch their record.

I think 6 is a very good chance of happening. I'd say probably 60% chance.
20% chance 7 teams
15% 5 teams
5% 4 teams(if the matchups for the tourney are wrong and the better teams win knocking out teams).

Steve, let's take a second look . . .

I don't know where you are getting your projections, but these are the projections I'm finding on RPI Forecast after adjusting for the St. John's upset last night:

Georgetown - 17-12
Providence -- 19-12
St. John's ---- 20-10

Yes, everyone could lose another game, but they could also win another game unexpectedly. If we're talking right now, that's all academic because it's unknown.

Basically I'd like to put this in context rather than looking at the Big East in isolation. After all, the committee has to pick someone to get to 68, so it's all relative. Here are the projected records of some other teams that will be in consideration, based on RPI Forecast:


18-11 - Oklahoma State
19-12 - Florida
19-12 - NC State
18-11 - South Carolina
18-12 - Georgia
19-11 - UConn

What do they all have in common? They're all from power conferences like the Big Easy where SOS means as much or more than W/L. We've seen teams with better records get passed over in recent years because their SOS didn't match their W/L, starting with SMU last year.

Right now the best we have to go on is RPI Forecast. By that standard, the Big East is in line for 7 bids based on where things stand right now. Any number of scenarios might and will play out - just like last year when PC won the BE Tournament. So, it's very unlikely that things in March will be the same as they are right now. That might be better, they might be worse. We'll just have to let it play out.

As far as I'm concerned,t he BE will probably get 8 bids after DePaul surprises everyone and wins the BE Tournament.

A few things...
1- St John's. They are projecting 9-9 for conference record, and 10-2 for OOC. Overall it may be 20-10, but if you add those 2 up it's 19-11. 19-11 is 45.5. Bubble.
2- St John's, Providence, Georgetown- all have mid 40 RPI's projected. All 3 are going to have to win at least 1 game in the BET to make the tourney. That's just the cold hard facts.

I agree with you that things may be better they may be worse. What I don't agree with is what billyjack said that 6 bids is a lock right now. Pretty much looking at the projected records that RPI forecast has- only Nova and Butler could afford an extra loss and feel real confidant about things. Maybe Xavier(though I think if that extra loss was another road one- their record away from Cintas- 2-6 right now- would start coming into play). Seton Hall gets an extra loss to fall to 19-11, and they are in that mid 40 pile needing a win in the BET to make the tourney.

Also- we've seen teams with bad SOS make the tourney. Wasn't it Middle Tennessee who made the tourney 2 years ago with a bad SOS? What we haven't seen is a team with a 17-13 type record make the tourney recently at all.

You told us last year, I think correctly (by the numbers), that an RPI of 50 or better is a lock for the NCAA's. Many of us can go 8-10, a very modest prediction, and we'll stay in the 40's... a lock.

Sometimes teams from weaker conferences get by-passed because they have no great wins... but that doesn't apply to any of our teams. We all have excellent OOC wins against teams from good conferences.

[stever20]

You're saying many of us can go 8-10 and still make it. Look at RPI forecast at the 8-10 records and their corresponding RPI's.
Georgetown goes 8-10, and they are 16-13. 58.3
Providence goes 8-10, they are 18-13. 52.4
St John's goes 8-10(with a Duke loss), they are 18-12. 55.8
Seton Hall goes 8-10 they are 18-12 54.1
Butler goes 8-10 they are 18-13. 65
Xavier goes 8-10 they are 17-14 or 18-13. 17-14 57.1 18-13 45.7.

So really only Xavier or St John's could go 8-10 and finish in the top 50 RPI(if they can win their remaining OOC game). And outside of Providence- none of the others are really all that close.

As to the RPI's your seeing. That's BEFORE the conference tourney. A team with say a 46 RPI entering the BET loses 1st game- likely will fall out of the top 50. Counts in the RPI as a 1.0 game which is pretty big.