by R Jay » Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:35 pm
I posted this on a Creighton message board yesterday so I figured I'd post it here, too, in a slightly edited form. It's a little long:
1. Villanova
- Class of the league. They've been tested and though they've gotten a bit lucky, they're still undefeated and clearly the most talented team in the Big East. I've seen no reason why they don't win the regular season title.
KenPom 6th overall, adjO - 8, adjD - 16
Predicted finish - 1, NCAA
2. St. John's
- Coming into this year I had my doubts about the Johnnies, but they've only lost to Gonzaga so far. I am very impressed by their defense, which I wasn't sure about coming in to this season. They are a very small team (particularly with Obekpa in foul trouble) and don't have great depth, though. I see them falling late as their lack of depth comes back to haunt them.
KenPom 18th overall, adjO - 128, adjD - 4
Predicted finish - 4, NCAA
3. Georgetown
- Georgetown could very easily be undefeated, but they lost a few games that were very close (Wisconsin, Butler, Kansas). That's not particularly surprising, though, given how many underclassmen they play. They are playing at a much quicker tempo this season and are employing a slightly longer bench. They should improve as the season goes as their talented freshmen get acclimated to Big East play.
KenPom 29th overall, adjO - 23, adjD - 64
Predicted finish - 2, NCAA
4. Xavier
- Xavier has a couple of bad losses, but like Georgetown, it's not very surprising since they are so young. Unfortunately their weak non-conference schedule may really hurt them come Selection Sunday. Again, like Georgetown they should improve as their freshmen adjust to conference play.
KenPom 31st overall, adjO - 11, adjD - 108
Predicted finish - 3, NCAA
5. Butler
- Butler might be the surprise of the year so far. They took down North Carolina and Georgetown in the Battle 4 Atlantis, but lost to Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Indiana, not that any of those are bad losses. Though their defense has impressed, their offense has really underwhelmed. Like St. John's they are not very tall or deep. In a conference as tough as the Big East this year, that will really hurt them.
KenPom 37th overall, adjO - 130, adjD - 11
Predicted finish - 5, NCAA
6. Seton Hall
- The young Pirates are what we thought they were. They've taken care of business against the mid-majors and weak majors on their schedule thus far, but lost at Wichita and Georgia, their two toughest opponents. They probably don't have enough quality non-conference wins to be on the right side of the bubble on Selection Sunday if they don't finish in the top half of the Big East. Before the Isaiah Whitehead injury, I was going to say that they would be a team that would really improve throughout Big East play, but now, I have my doubts.
KenPom 40th overall, adjO - 75, adjD - 38
Predicted finish - 8, NIT
7. Providence
- The Friars hit a rough speedbump in the middle of non-conference play losing three straight to Kentucky, Boston College, and Brown, but seem to have righted the ship. The Friars have good wins over Notre Dame and Miami. If they finish in the top half of the Big East they should make the Big Dance. They are a solid, but not spectacular team offensively and defensively. They don't have very good bench depth, though, and will be in big trouble if they lose Kris Dunn again. Their lack of depth will hurt them as the season progresses.
KenPom 49th overall, adjO - 56, adjD - 68
Predicted finish - 7, NIT
8. Creighton
- Uneven is a great description of the Jays so far. Creighton has a great win over Oklahoma and a good win over Nebraska, but painful losses to Ole Miss, Tulsa, St. Mary's, and North Texas. Even if they finish in the top half of the conference they will likely be on the bubble on Selection Sunday. It is most certainly a team that is still trying to find itself. The Jays do have good height and bench depth, unlike a lot of the other Big East teams. Austin Chatman must stay healthy, though if they are to be NCAA or NIT contenders. They should improve throughout conference play, especially since they have more home games down the backstretch.
KenPom 77th overall, adjO - 46, adjD - 131
Predicted finish - 6, NIT
9. Marquette
- The Golden Eagles look much better with Luke Fischer on the floor than without him. They so far have a bad loss to UNO and decent wins over Arizona State and Tennessee. They also have three top 25 losses to Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. They would probably be on the outside looking in even if they finished in the top half of the Big East on Selection Sunday, though. Both their offense and defense is OK, but not great. A major problem for them is their depth. They only have eight players on scholarship and if Fischer gets in foul trouble will have a 6'6 or 6'7 forward stuck at the 5 spot. That is just too much for the Golden Eagles to overcome.
KenPom 107th overall, adjO - 101, adjD - 111
Predicted finish - 9, CBI/CIT
10. DePaul
- Oh DePaul. I guess we shouldn't have expected much. The Demons are on a six game skid losing to weak major teams and good-but-not-great mid-major teams. They also lost earlier at home to Lehigh. They do have a good win over Stanford. If they were to finish in the top half of the league they would most definitely be on the outside looking in. They have looked decent on offense at times (and horrid at other times) but have been awful on defense. They have OK depth and height. Unless DePaul improves dramatically on defense, I don't see them getting out of the cellar.
KenPom 208th overall, adjO - 97, adjD - 320
Predicted finish - 10, None
*KenPom data current as of Saturday, December 27th
“Even though I’m not playing I still don’t want my school to be disrespected, because I play for the name on the front of my chest, not the name on my back. I’m a part of this family now, and when they disrespected them they disrespected me”-Mo Watson Jr.