Memphis and Cincy to Big 12?

[ChestRockwell85]

UConn should move their football team to the CAA and their hoops team and all other sports to The Big East. I promise you, if Memphis and Cinci leave, the CAA is a STRONGER conference than the AAC. You will see next year, Villanova opens at UConn. Villanova will win. UConn will NEVER be a big time FBS football team. FCS is fun and puts several guys in the NFL every year. It just makes more sense.

[notkirkcameron]

The Big 12 needs to tread very carefully here. It's not far-fetched to say a shortsighted view could, frankly, lead to its demise.

The Big 12 could look west and grab BYU or Boise or Colorado State, but there are a few issues here.
1.) BYU is independent in football and seems to be loving it. Their olympic sports are in the WCC with like-minded western religious schools. What's in it for them?
2.) Any western expansion makes the Big 12 the first major conference to stretch across three time zones, and makes life even more difficult for West Virginia.

If the Big 12 goes west, the ramifications will be minor. Big 12 back in the Denver market, Boise State moves up to a Power 5 Football Conference, Mountain West and Sun Belt/C-USA teams rise to fill the void. West Virginia's still pisssed. The end.

The real question is what happens if the Big 12 goes EAST?

Let's say the Big 12 grabs some combination of Cincinnati, Memphis, USF and UCF, or maybe all of them. These academic lightweights and programs of sporadic athletic success may spook the Big 12's larger and more deep-pocketed schools in Oklahoma and Texas to look west towards the Pac-12 again. If this happens, it sets off a musical chairs panic just like in 2010/11. If UT and OU go, it's not inconceivable that they bring Oklahoma State and Texas Tech with them.

With the Big 12 down to 8 teams, the conference would be at a crossroads. Expand or die. If the Big 12 expands again, now the Western expansion becomes a foregone conclusion. That would not be good news for the Mountain West. Without going too far down that rabbit hole, it's also pretty easy in this scenario to see Kansas looking toward the Big Ten, and KU's name brand basketball program (as well as the untapped Kansas City market) being attractive to the Big 10 and BTN.

To make an even 16, the Big Ten would have its choice of Iowa State or Kansas State to accompany Kansas. Kansas State would likely be politically linked to KU, but Iowa State has the AAU membership the Big Ten insists it needs. Regardless, either choice would make it impossible for the Big 12 to expand again. They would be asking for rats to jump ON TO the Titanic. West Virginia would be pleading with the ACC to take them in, given their historic rivalries with Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The SEC would be an option as well, but the SEC would effectively have their choice of the carcass of the Big 12, including Baylor, TCU, Cincinnati, and Memphis.


Bottom line: The Big 12 HAS to make a splash with their expansion. And I mean a big splash. You need to increase the value of the conference and keep Oklahoma and Texas happy. Without raiding a major conference, the only way the Big 12 can go east is if they also get BYU. BYU is the one and only team that saves the Big 12 from itself.

[bmorex]

Good writeup, notkirkcameron.

[Jet915]

BYU and Cincy seem most logical.

[falcon]

I think Memphis will be joined by Colorado St. as the two new schools.

Dominoes fall.

Colorado State has upgraded facilities, and would deliver the Denver market, however, their inclusion has to be based on how much of any Big 12 expansion is bent on making life easier for West Virginia, which would imply eastward expansion. Adding Colorado State would make the Big 12 the only Football 5 Conference to span three time zones (and first if you don't count the Big East's football death throes trying to add Boise State and San Diego State).

IF Colorado State were added, the Mountain West would need to add another team to get back to 12 and stage a conference championship game. BYU would be the obvious candidate, but assuming they maintain independence, there aren't that many attractive candidates out there with the demise of the WAC. Idaho and New Mexico State fit the footprint, but neither one really moves the needle, or gives the MWC something they don't have already

It's not inconceivable that rather than add one of those two Sun Belt schools, the Mountain West would have to raid Conference USA, and I'd have to think UTEP or UTSA would be leading candidates.

I agree that West Virginia mitigates against the inclusion of Col. St. The Big 12 would have been better served to have taken Louisville, instead. Should Col. St. be selected and exit the MWC, either BYU or UTEP could replace them.

[admin]

The Sporting News reporting that Big 12 officials recently met with administrators from the University of Cincinnati.

[GoldenWarrior11]

The Sporting News reporting that Big 12 officials recently met with administrators from the University of Cincinnati.

I would be very happy for Cincinnati if this is true. They have spent a lot of $$$ improving their facilities and academics for the possibility of this day. IMHO, they are miles ahead of their AAC counterparts - in terms of academic and athletic history.

Regarding the possibility of UCONN being left behind again, honestly, I don't know what else needs to happen for them to realize they will not make it into the ACC or B1G. Their football program is a disaster and has no prestige whatsoever. It's becoming very clear that their current conference affiliation is causing a severe detriment to their basketball program now as well (losing to Yale???). I honestly don't care if they come to the Big East or not, but I do care that they are such a great basketball school and hate seeing them being wasted away in the AAC.

[SJU1987]

The Big East should wait for the leftovers and then add teams. UCONN will come because nobody wants them . SMU would be a nice addition because of Texas , St. Louis and Gonzaga. SMU and UCONN football is going nowhere.

[HoosierPal]

The Big 12 may NOT have to expand to have a conference football playoff. Current NCAA bylaws require teams to have a minimum of six teams in each division to stage a championship game. It is believed to be a non-controversial change to rescind that rule if the Big 12 wanted to stage such a game with 10 teams. With the new P5 autonomy, that would be a slam dunk.

[Xudash]

The Big East should wait for the leftovers and then add teams. UCONN will come because nobody wants them . SMU would be a nice addition because of Texas , St. Louis and Gonzaga. SMU and UCONN football is going nowhere.

Based on what we know at this point, should BE expansion occur, it would cap out at 2 additions based upon what Fox is willing to do with respect to truing up the existing deal. To go beyond 2 additions would have to be striking enough for Fox to make it revenue neutral based upon 4 additions, and it isn't clear to me which teams above the two most preferred would move the needle sufficiently enough to make that happen.