the path to 5 conference bids

[XUFan09]

Seton Hall is probably going to be a bad loss to whoever loses to them. If they beat Creighton, their chances of breaking the RPI top 100 do improve some, but it's still more likely they stay in the 100+ range and end up being a bad loss for one of the better teams in the conference. Providence, on the other hand, can grab a few wins against good teams and it wouldn't be that big of a deal (especially if it's a Friars home game). It wouldn't be desirable for them to dent a number of tournament resumes of Big East bubble teams, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if they snagged a game here or there.

[XUFan09]

totally agree with you about Mercer- however I would caution looking at their RPI forecast, 1-2 unplanned losses would tank their rpi pretty quickly...

21-7 79.9(projected)
20-8 93.0
19-9 107.6
18-10 125.1

Oh yeah, agreed. They are just much more likely to do well enough or better than to do worse. Their problem is that they are the class of a bad league.

[stever20]

For PC- they have them going 7-11. With that 17-14 record- a 93.3 RPI. If they go 6-12- it's down to 106.6. 5-13 down to 121.2

For SH- they have them going 6-12. With that 15-16 record- a 135.9 RPI. If they go 7-11 it's up to a 119.8. 8-10 up to 105.7. 9-9 only up to 92.9.

Right now, PC has only 3 games left with SH and DePaul. So they have 4 other wins in there built in right now.

[JOPO]

JOPO

If you don't agree with Friar's point, then how do you expect the committee to give the BE 5 at large bids if we all beat each other up?

We don't have a lot of elite teams, we have several really solid teams. I don't know anyone outside of Villanova that can feel comfortable on the bubble with losses to the lower RPI teams in the conference. In order to get solid teams in, they have to limit any losses to 100+ RPI teams.

I think the calculus for getting bids in the NCAAs is different this year from what the BE is used to. There aren't 4 top 25 teams this year to give mid level teams chances at really high quality wins and help pull them into the dance. So in effect we need teams to avoid "bad" losses and create more separation from the lower rated teams in the conference.

Warren Nolan projections show only 2 top 50 teams at the end of the year. These are just projections but they show the dangerous possibility of having lots of teams in the 50-100 grouping. Many could be just outside at large territory. I think there is too much parity for that to happen and right now don't expect 5 bids is likely.

I thin Friar is trying to be realistic regarding what it will take to get maximum bids for the Big East.

Jayball, it looks like you're pretty new here (guessing based on just having 11 total posts). Take a look at FriarFan2's entire body of work. He is not a Providence fan and I doubt he attended any Big East university (including those past and present). He is basically a troll who likes to start trouble and stir the pot and has been around for years. He posts under the ncaaball on the Villanova Rivals site - there he also has numerous aliases that also post and agree with him. He only has the one name here (so far). It's truly weird. He's been banned and all of the other boards. Trust me on this. Others here will back me up I'm sure. Here, for every one halfway normal post he'll have at least 100 bashing Seton Hall for no rational reason.

[Hoopfan]

JOPO

If you don't agree with Friar's point, then how do you expect the committee to give the BE 5 at large bids if we all beat each other up?

We don't have a lot of elite teams, we have several really solid teams. I don't know anyone outside of Villanova that can feel comfortable on the bubble with losses to the lower RPI teams in the conference. In order to get solid teams in, they have to limit any losses to 100+ RPI teams.

I think the calculus for getting bids in the NCAAs is different this year from what the BE is used to. There aren't 4 top 25 teams this year to give mid level teams chances at really high quality wins and help pull them into the dance. So in effect we need teams to avoid "bad" losses and create more separation from the lower rated teams in the conference.

Warren Nolan projections show only 2 top 50 teams at the end of the year. These are just projections but they show the dangerous possibility of having lots of teams in the 50-100 grouping. Many could be just outside at large territory. I think there is too much parity for that to happen and right now don't expect 5 bids is likely.

I thin Friar is trying to be realistic regarding what it will take to get maximum bids for the Big East.

Jayball, it looks like you're pretty new here (guessing based on just having 11 total posts). Take a look at FriarFan2's entire body of work. He is not a Providence fan and I doubt he attended any Big East university (including those past and present). He is basically a troll who likes to start trouble and stir the pot and has been around for years. He posts under the ncaaball on the Villanova Rivals site - there he also has numerous aliases that also post and agree with him. He only has the one name here (so far). It's truly weird. He's been banned and all of the other boards. Trust me on this. Others here will back me up I'm sure. Here, for every one halfway normal post he'll have at least 100 bashing Seton Hall for no rational reason.

Just like tsmithohio1234 is a troll that never went to ud or is a ud fan

[Friarfan2]

I am not some troll with no affiliation to the big east. I have no affiliation with villanova, I don't know why you keep saying that.

I went to providence in the rick barnes years. I knew dickey simpkins personally. I knew father quigley personally. I lived on eaton street in 1995 and loved my time at PC.

Jayball, obviously you get it. The jopo's are too blind to see what is best for the conference. They are looking for a place where seton hall won't be trashed (apparently nova fans trash seton hall too).

Thing is, I'm not trashing seton hall. They are out of the running for an at large bid due to their bad losses. (My school is also out of the running due to our losses and no good wins). If seton hall had beat mercer, fdu and st peter's, I would be rooting for them to either be in the top half or to fall to the bottom, and not really care.

Bottom line:
- we want 5 teams with rpi in the top 40. To do that, the bottom 5 have to take the brunt of the losses.
- we do not want 2 top 40 teams and the other 8 teams in the 50-100 range. That appears to be what jopo wants. However, that would mean that we only have two tournament teams.

We want to maximize our tourney invites. That is much, much, more important than how many top 100 teams we have.

[Friarfan2]

Mercer is a bad loss. They will not be a top 100 team. They will be listed as a bad loss on any tournament resume.

How low have we sunk if we are defending losses to mercer, or claiming that a win against mercer could have been a good win? Let's drop the mid-major thinking here. Thank you.

[XUFan09]

Mercer is a bad loss. They will not be a top 100 team. They will be listed as a bad loss on any tournament resume.

How low have we sunk if we are defending losses to mercer, or claiming that a win against mercer could have been a good win? Let's drop the mid-major thinking here. Thank you.

You confidently state that Mercer will not be in the top 100, even though the overwhelming probability lies with them actually making the top 100. That's rich. And neither I nor anyone else said they could have been a good win. It simply would have been nice if they won that game. It was one of those in-between games, involving neither a high risk for a bad loss nor an opportunity for a good win.

[gosports1]

There really is a ton of BB left to be played. If PC wins on Sunday at Nova, where do you think that puts them in the grand scheme of things. PC beat us twice last year so I am def not looking ahead of this game.

havent you been paying attention? PC's season is over! you guys should just phone it in and get that victory!

[stever20]

Mercer is a bad loss. They will not be a top 100 team. They will be listed as a bad loss on any tournament resume.

How low have we sunk if we are defending losses to mercer, or claiming that a win against mercer could have been a good win? Let's drop the mid-major thinking here. Thank you.

Once again labels are coming into mind here. You think because they are Mercer, they couldn't possibly not be a bad loss. The thing is, they WILL likely be in the top 100. If a team is in the top 100, any loss to them is not a bad loss in the eyes the committee is looking thru...

Where Mercer was a bad loss was it was on the road. If SH had won, instead of getting .6 of a loss, they would have gotten 1.4 of a win. It was a lost opportunity. The other 2 losses are brutal ones.