RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[GumbyDamnit!]

So two away games at Monmouth and St Francis would be better than SJU scheduling Duke and Gonzaga? Well that certainly is not what the Committee usually rewards. That sums up the difference between Tulsa winnin 21 and SJU winning 19.

Maybe having more than 2 games away from home would be something smart that St John's could do. At least Tulsa OOC played @ Wichita and a neutral site vs Oklahoma St.

You can do what St John's did, but you better be ready to face the consequences if you lose games at home like St John's has done. They changed the RPI to reward teams more for going on the road.

I see that Bill beat me to it on this point. Would you like to reconsider or edit this before embarrassing yourself further? You keep harping on these OOC road games. Here's the problem... teams like Tulsa need to beef up their OOC schedule because they are in a weak league. SJU with Duke and Gonzaga, Nova-Butler-Gtwn-PC x 2 won't stand before the committee with a questionable SOS. Tulsa will. So if you are going to say that SJU needs to schedule more like Tulsa, you might want to take a closer look at the actual facts. Really ridiculous argument you are trying to make.

[stever20]

So two away games at Monmouth and St Francis would be better than SJU scheduling Duke and Gonzaga? Well that certainly is not what the Committee usually rewards. That sums up the difference between Tulsa winnin 21 and SJU winning 19.

Maybe having more than 2 games away from home would be something smart that St John's could do. At least Tulsa OOC played @ Wichita and a neutral site vs Oklahoma St.

You can do what St John's did, but you better be ready to face the consequences if you lose games at home like St John's has done. They changed the RPI to reward teams more for going on the road.

I see that Bill beat me to it on this point. Would you like to reconsider or edit this before embarrassing yourself further? You keep harping on these OOC road games. Here's the problem... teams like Tulsa need to beef up their OOC schedule because they are in a weak league. SJU with Duke and Gonzaga, Nova-Butler-Gtwn-PC x 2 won't stand before the committee with a questionable SOS. Tulsa will. So if you are going to say that SJU needs to schedule more like Tulsa, you might want to take a closer look at the actual facts. Really ridiculous argument you are trying to make.

St John's absolutely needs to stop scheduling not leaving NYC but maybe 1 time. If they don't get in at 18-13, that would be absolutely the reason why. 18-12 their projected RPI is 55.8. and the main reason is so many home games.

[robinreed]

Thank God for our come back win over Cincinnati last night. X will now be in the dance, however it looks like St John's and Seton Hall may be in trouble. I thought until the last few seconds we had lost it, sometimes things just work out.

RPI Forecast

Big East Conference
Expected RPI: 2
Current RPI: 2
Current OOC Record: 93-30 (0.7561)
Expected OOC Record: 93-30 (0.7561)
Expected OOC RPI: 2
Expected OOC SOS: 1

RPI
4.7 Villanova 0.6602 0.5724 26 24-2 28-3 11-2 15-3 5-1 5-1 5-1 11-0 3-0 13-0 7 50 4
20.4 Georgetown 0.6099 0.5983 3 17-8 20-9 9-6 12-7 2-6 2-3 4-0 9-0 3-0 8-2 18 10 19
22.5 Butler 0.6059 0.5718 29 19-7 22-9 10-4 13-6 3-6 3-2 3-1 11-1 3-0 9-3 59 126 22
22.7 Providence 0.6054 0.5867 7 19-8 21-10 9-5 11-7 4-3 3-2 4-2 8-2 2-1 10-3 22 20 21
33.8 Xavier 0.5888 0.5820 12 17-10 19-12 7-7 9-9 3-3 2-2 5-3 7-4 2-0 10-3 26 29 33
51.9 St. John's 0.5722 0.5759 22 16-9 18-12 6-7 8-10 2-7 3-1 3-1 6-2 4-0 10-2 37 52 41
76.1 Seton Hall 0.5548 0.5588 47 15-11 17-13 5-9 7-11 1-6 2-3 3-1 6-3 5-0 10-2 33 185 69
139.0 Marquette 0.5160 0.5684 31 11-14 13-17 3-10 5-13 1-7 1-5 3-2 5-2 3-1 8-4 129 135 136
144.3 Creighton 0.5134 0.5583 49 12-15 13-18 3-11 4-14 1-7 2-4 1-3 5-3 4-1 9-4 116 187 135
161.3 DePaul 0.5050 0.5451 75 12-15 13-18 6-8 7-11 0-7 2-3 3-3 3-4 5-2 6-7 279 297 145

[GumbyDamnit!]

ENOUGH with the RPI forecast. It means absolutely nothing. A week ago Cincy was supposed to beat both Tulane and XU at home. They lost both. SJU was supposed to lose away at X. It didn't. RPI forecast is completely useless. Why are people Zombies to RPI forecast sites?

Remember two weeks ago Stever was sure SJU was dead and both FL and UCONN were primed to make their big surge, based on RPI forecast. NO ONE, including a computer, can predict what's going to happen. Right now 6 BE teams are safe in the tourney. If the do what's needed, they are in. If they don't then everyone directly ahead of them has to not lose as well, or teams behind them need to win their games. It's really that simple. To try and predict today that SJU is out based on RPI forecast is utterly stupid.

[stever20]

St John's is not as much of a lock as you think. They still have to win at least 1 game from Xavier, Georgetown, Nova, Butler, or PC. If St John's goes 2-4 rest of the way, pretty much they have no chance of making the tourney.

[Bill Marsh]

ENOUGH with the RPI forecast. It means absolutely nothing. A week ago Cincy was supposed to beat both Tulane and XU at home. They lost both. SJU was supposed to lose away at X. It didn't. RPI forecast is completely useless. Why are people Zombies to RPI forecast sites?

Remember two weeks ago Stever was sure SJU was dead and both FL and UCONN were primed to make their big surge, based on RPI forecast. NO ONE, including a computer, can predict what's going to happen. Right now 6 BE teams are safe in the tourney. If the do what's needed, they are in. If they don't then everyone directly ahead of them has to not lose as well, or teams behind them need to win their games. It's really that simple. To try and predict today that SJU is out based on RPI forecast is utterly stupid.

Gumby, you've been reading too much of Stever's stuff. RPI Forevast picked Xavier to beat Cincinnati.

As for the value of RPI Forecast, it's not an attempt to predict future games, it's an attempt to compensate for the weaknesses of RPI, which is a horrible measure for comparing the relative strength of different teams. They rocofnize that we're stuck with RPI, so they've taken a legitimate power rating system (Sagarin) and have applied it to each team's schedule.

[GumbyDamnit!]

ENOUGH with the RPI forecast. It means absolutely nothing. A week ago Cincy was supposed to beat both Tulane and XU at home. They lost both. SJU was supposed to lose away at X. It didn't. RPI forecast is completely useless. Why are people Zombies to RPI forecast sites?

Remember two weeks ago Stever was sure SJU was dead and both FL and UCONN were primed to make their big surge, based on RPI forecast. NO ONE, including a computer, can predict what's going to happen. Right now 6 BE teams are safe in the tourney. If the do what's needed, they are in. If they don't then everyone directly ahead of them has to not lose as well, or teams behind them need to win their games. It's really that simple. To try and predict today that SJU is out based on RPI forecast is utterly stupid.

Gumby, you've been reading too much of Stever's stuff. RPI Forevast picked Xavier to beat Cincinnati.

As for the value of RPI Forecast, it's not an attempt to predict future games, it's an attempt to compensate for the weaknesses of RPI, which is a horrible measure for comparing the relative strength of different teams. They rocofnize that we're stuck with RPI, so they've taken a legitimate power rating system (Sagarin) and have applied it to each team's schedule.

Bill, therein lies the heart of the problem. Let's use X and Cincy as examples. If RPI forecast applies any predictive factor whatsoever (strength of remainng schedule, H vs Away games, games vs higher RPI teams, past results, etc) as a way of measuring future probability, then I have less than a casual interest in what it spits out. It is no different than Kramer telling me which stocks to buy on nightly TV. Sure there's some logic to it but there are so many factors at play that it's near impossible to say with any confidence what's really going to happen.

In the case of X and Cincy it literally came down to one team making a play and the other not. When you multiply those scenarios x 1000, with 350 other teams involved, you start to recognize the flaw.

I am very much a believer in recognizing which teams are better suited to win their remaining games by where they sit today (hot vs cold, tested vs untested, etc). SHU and SJU two weeks ago sat next to each other in the RPI and league standings. But everyone could begin to clearly see that one was a potential tourney team and the other wasn't. RPI Forecast would probably tell you that they both had an equal chance of getting there, but we could all see the SHU implosion with our own eyes. Stever was looking at predictive analysis with FL and surmised that they had a shot at going 7-1 down the stretch. Looking at that team though, they had done nothing to suggest they were capable of such.

[Bill Marsh]

ENOUGH with the RPI forecast. It means absolutely nothing. A week ago Cincy was supposed to beat both Tulane and XU at home. They lost both. SJU was supposed to lose away at X. It didn't. RPI forecast is completely useless. Why are people Zombies to RPI forecast sites?

Remember two weeks ago Stever was sure SJU was dead and both FL and UCONN were primed to make their big surge, based on RPI forecast. NO ONE, including a computer, can predict what's going to happen. Right now 6 BE teams are safe in the tourney. If the do what's needed, they are in. If they don't then everyone directly ahead of them has to not lose as well, or teams behind them need to win their games. It's really that simple. To try and predict today that SJU is out based on RPI forecast is utterly stupid.

Gumby, you've been reading too much of Stever's stuff. RPI Forevast picked Xavier to beat Cincinnati.

As for the value of RPI Forecast, it's not an attempt to predict future games, it's an attempt to compensate for the weaknesses of RPI, which is a horrible measure for comparing the relative strength of different teams. They rocofnize that we're stuck with RPI, so they've taken a legitimate power rating system (Sagarin) and have applied it to each team's schedule.

Bill, therein lies the heart of the problem. Let's use X and Cincy as examples. If RPI forecast applies any predictive factor whatsoever (strength of remainng schedule, H vs Away games, games vs higher RPI teams, past results, etc) as a way of measuring future probability, then I have less than a casual interest in what it spits out. It is no different than Kramer telling me which stocks to buy on nightly TV. Sure there's some logic to it but there are so many factors at play that it's near impossible to say with any confidence what's really going to happen.

In the case of X and Cincy it literally came down to one team making a play and the other not. When you multiply those scenarios x 1000, with 350 other teams involved, you start to recognize the flaw.

I am very much a believer in recognizing which teams are better suited to win their remaining games by where they sit today (hot vs cold, tested vs untested, etc). SHU and SJU two weeks ago sat next to each other in the RPI and league standings. But everyone could begin to clearly see that one was a potential tourney team and the other wasn't. RPI Forecast would probably tell you that they both had an equal chance of getting there, but we could all see the SHU implosion with our own eyes. Stever was looking at predictive analysis with FL and surmised that they had a shot at going 7-1 down the stretch. Looking at that team though, they had done nothing to suggest they were capable of such.

No argument with you, Gumby. I think it's a mistake to use any single factor to judge a team. Metrics just provide more information. Overreliance onthem will just get anyone in trouble. By the same token, ignore them at your own peril.

I've gotten killed in my March Madness brackets by looking at the factors like hot/cold. By that measure, who would have predicted UConnto win the national championship las year?

[stever20]

ENOUGH with the RPI forecast. It means absolutely nothing. A week ago Cincy was supposed to beat both Tulane and XU at home. They lost both. SJU was supposed to lose away at X. It didn't. RPI forecast is completely useless. Why are people Zombies to RPI forecast sites?

Remember two weeks ago Stever was sure SJU was dead and both FL and UCONN were primed to make their big surge, based on RPI forecast. NO ONE, including a computer, can predict what's going to happen. Right now 6 BE teams are safe in the tourney. If the do what's needed, they are in. If they don't then everyone directly ahead of them has to not lose as well, or teams behind them need to win their games. It's really that simple. To try and predict today that SJU is out based on RPI forecast is utterly stupid.

Gumby, you've been reading too much of Stever's stuff. RPI Forevast picked Xavier to beat Cincinnati.

As for the value of RPI Forecast, it's not an attempt to predict future games, it's an attempt to compensate for the weaknesses of RPI, which is a horrible measure for comparing the relative strength of different teams. They rocofnize that we're stuck with RPI, so they've taken a legitimate power rating system (Sagarin) and have applied it to each team's schedule.

Bill, therein lies the heart of the problem. Let's use X and Cincy as examples. If RPI forecast applies any predictive factor whatsoever (strength of remainng schedule, H vs Away games, games vs higher RPI teams, past results, etc) as a way of measuring future probability, then I have less than a casual interest in what it spits out. It is no different than Kramer telling me which stocks to buy on nightly TV. Sure there's some logic to it but there are so many factors at play that it's near impossible to say with any confidence what's really going to happen.

In the case of X and Cincy it literally came down to one team making a play and the other not. When you multiply those scenarios x 1000, with 350 other teams involved, you start to recognize the flaw.

I am very much a believer in recognizing which teams are better suited to win their remaining games by where they sit today (hot vs cold, tested vs untested, etc). SHU and SJU two weeks ago sat next to each other in the RPI and league standings. But everyone could begin to clearly see that one was a potential tourney team and the other wasn't. RPI Forecast would probably tell you that they both had an equal chance of getting there, but we could all see the SHU implosion with our own eyes. Stever was looking at predictive analysis with FL and surmised that they had a shot at going 7-1 down the stretch. Looking at that team though, they had done nothing to suggest they were capable of such.

The thing is look at Florida. They've gone 1-2 since then- but the 2 losses were by 1 point each. they easily could win their next 4 games before losing to Kentucky(only real tricky game is next 1 @ LSU). So they may go 5-3 down the stretch, with 2 1 point losses. I'd say that's having a shot at going 7-1 down the stretch.

And I'm sorry, to just look at a team where they are today is just as crazy. I mean if you did that a few weeks ago, could you have seen that Seton Hall would have lost 5 straight games after beating Xavier? Not a chance. But RPI forecast could see that the @ DePaul game would be tough and then the Georgetown, PC, and Nova games were going to be really difficult. Like RPI Forecast would have seen them at 2-3 tops and more likely 1-4.

[GumbyDamnit!]

But Forecast told you that FL would win those games but THEY DIDN'T. And Cincy certainly was supposed to beat Tulane. My point has always been Stever that you get so caught up in what's going to happen instead of just recognizing who deserves to be in at a point in time. At this point in time it is my opinion that SJU and X deserve to be in and UCONN, FL and Tulsa don't. You keep holding out hope that those other 3 will go on runs and SJU and X will falter. From what I'm seeing I don't think either will happen.