Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Django]

The only additions will be Notre Dame and Alabama. Norte Dame is already Indy in football and the Tide will be Catholic converts after Nick Saban hosts his Jonestown trip. Unlike Jim Nick will be commended for purging the world of Bamas current football fan base.

[Savannah Jay]

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I have not researched the athletic department finances of all of the Power Five Conference schools, but it is unlikely that ANY of them lose money on football, because of the revenue generated by it. The conferences whose teams lose money on scholarshipped football would be the American Conference teams (which is why UConn left), and probably all other non-P5 schools.


Does Football Fund Other Sports At College Level - Kristi Dosh, Attorney, Forbes - May 5, 2011

University of Central Florida • Revenue • Expense • Profit

Football • $15,173,200 • $8,507,856 • $6,665,344
Men’s Basketball • $2,279,998 • $2,134,978 • $145,020
Women’s Basketball • $416,214 • $1,370,168 • -$953,954
Other Sports – Men’s • $805,958 • $1,978,860 • -$1,172,902
Other Sports – Women’s • $1,698,109 • $4,737,880 • -$3,039,771

Athletic Department Net Profit: $1,643,737.00

As you can see, UCF turns a profit when it comes to strictly viewing team revenues and expenses thanks to profits from football and men’s basketball. This is before you add in their $17.5 million in student fees. However, it’s also before you add in costs like coaches salaries ($5.9m), recruiting ($559k), gameday operating expenses ($3.6m) and student aid ($5.7m). With those expenses included, it takes student fees, alumni contributions and other revenue from sources like licensing and advertising to allow UCF to turn an overall profit in the athletic department.

Note that the figures in the table above are 10 years old, and that UCF now has an enrolment of 68,000+, so the amounts have obviously changed significantly. UCF may still be turning a profit in football and basketball, but it is highly unlikely that most AAC school are doing so in 2021. There may be a number of AAC schools that are losing money on football now, but getting rid of a scholarshipped football program is a difficult and irreversible choice for any university.

The biggest disadvantage the Big East has in their next TV Rights contract negotiations is that ESPN is very unlikely to be interested because of their other, bigger TV Rights contracts with Power Five conferences. While it may be entertaining to fantasize about adding P5 schools to the Big East, the truth is that it simply will not happen.
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The sourced numbers above are very old, indeed...but the USA Today does this article every year about college athletic department finances. Assuming it's reasonably accurate (in all the years they've published the report, i've not read one school deny the numbers laid out and, since most are public schools with disclosure requirements, it's probably safe to assume they are accurate), there are very few schools that make money on football and, as a result, very few athletic departments that make money for the school. I am not sure newer numbers are available than FY YE 2019 but it's probably the fairest illustration since it's pre-COVID.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

According to this article, UCF (line 55) has athletic department revenues of $69,121,887 and expenses of $67,967,343. HOWEVER, $31,739,067 of it's revenue is from allocated sources (defined in this article as Total Allocated: The sum of student fees, direct and indirect institutional support and state money allocated to the athletics department, minus certain funds the department transferred back to the school. The transfer amount cannot exceed the sum of student fees and direct institutional support that the department receives from the school. (Under NCAA reporting rules, any additional money transferred to the school cannot be considered part of the department’s annual operating revenues or expenses.)

So 45.92% of UCF's athletic budget comes from student fees and non-athletic revenue. And it's clearly not just UCF. Look at how many athletic departments are subsidized by non-athletic revenue in very, very large sums. I may be wrong but this doesn't seem sustainable...sooner or later those paying for that are going to question the value of the return on investment.

There are genuinely 30 - 40 athletic departments whose football team "matters," in the grand scheme of things. If most of these athletic departments were run like a business, they'd close up shop.

[butlerguy03]

Duke: not going to happen. Too valuable as a brand. Vanderbilt is in a similar place; don't have the football, but excellent academics and I can't imagine southern schools would want to be associated with a bunch of private northern city schools. Wake Forest is in the same boat, but I think there could be some chance there. More of basketball tradition I think, and being in the Big East might give them a little more attention than they get being the 4th North Carolina school. Would require a total implosion of the ACC. I still think even if the ACC implodes and/or the SEC break away, there are enough schools left to be a good second tier league.

Duke's brand is too big, but they've always considered themselves to be a misplaced New England school, so it wouldn't be too much of a stretch.

Vanderbilt is interesting to me. Very similar to a lot of our schools. High academic, large metro area D-1 competitor to a large state school. Nashville plays cowboy, but is much more midwestern than it is deep southern. It's connections to Louisville, Cincinnati and Indianapolis are much stronger than to Atlanta, Birmingham, etc. Nashville is BOOMING and would be a major "get" for FS1.

If I were Val, I'd be keeping an eye on 1) Notre Dame 2) Syracuse 3) Duke 4) Vanderbilt ... and less so on 5) Northwestern. I can't see the BIG doing dirty to the Wildcats like I could see the SECartel doing dirty to Vandy one day.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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Here’s a timely recap of Big East realignment history for those of you interested. The recent article by ESPN’s Andrea Adelson is well worth a read.

2010–2013 Big East Conference Realignment - Wikipedia


College Basketball: How Conference Realignment Killed the Big East - Zack Lessner, Bleacher Report/Villanova Basketball - January 31, 2013

2015–16 Villanova Wildcats Men's Basketball National Championship Team - Wikipedia

2017–18 Villanova Wildcats Men's Basketball National Championship Team - Wikipedia


Realignment revisited - The beginning of the end for Big East football - Andrea Adelson, ESPN - July 20, 2021

"There are no rules in this game of realignment, right? There wasn't an arbiter. You couldn't go to the NCAA or the federal government. It was a game we likened to musical chairs. You don't want to be the one standing when the music stops." – Former West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck

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[adoraz]

Power 5 teams of course won't join the Big East (due to football revenue), however teams who get left out and find themselves in an AAC+ situation (aka UConn) certainly may.

The Big East has the same idea that other conferences have had these past few years: only add teams that will increase the payout per school in future TV contracts (such as UConn). Big 12 passed on AAC schools several years ago because none of them would've raised the payout per school. SEC expanded last month because Texas and Oklahoma will increase their payout.

As of today, only one school is available who'd raise our payouts: Gonzaga. It's up to the Big East and Fox to determine whether adding them would be worthwhile.

On a side note, shout out to GTMO for being high on the Bonnies before they were nationally relevant. I still don't want them added, but they are quickly joining the status of St. Louis and Dayton as potential expansion candidates. I'd still like to see one of those teams dominate the same way that Xavier did before they're considered, though. For now we need to just sit and wait.

[DeltaV]

Duke: not going to happen. Too valuable as a brand. Vanderbilt is in a similar place; don't have the football, but excellent academics and I can't imagine southern schools would want to be associated with a bunch of private northern city schools. Wake Forest is in the same boat, but I think there could be some chance there. More of basketball tradition I think, and being in the Big East might give them a little more attention than they get being the 4th North Carolina school. Would require a total implosion of the ACC. I still think even if the ACC implodes and/or the SEC break away, there are enough schools left to be a good second tier league.

Duke's brand is too big, but they've always considered themselves to be a misplaced New England school, so it wouldn't be too much of a stretch.

Vanderbilt is interesting to me. Very similar to a lot of our schools. High academic, large metro area D-1 competitor to a large state school. Nashville plays cowboy, but is much more midwestern than it is deep southern. It's connections to Louisville, Cincinnati and Indianapolis are much stronger than to Atlanta, Birmingham, etc. Nashville is BOOMING and would be a major "get" for FS1.

If I were Val, I'd be keeping an eye on 1) Notre Dame 2) Syracuse 3) Duke 4) Vanderbilt ... and less so on 5) Northwestern. I can't see the BIG doing dirty to the Wildcats like I could see the SECartel doing dirty to Vandy one day.

I'll admit, I don't know much about Nashville or Vanderbilt, I've just kinda always gotten a good ole boy vibe from them, but that also could be the SEC rubbing off on them. One of the few things I do know I've heard is that the rest of the SEC is annoyed they don't step up and spend more on athletics. I doubt the SEC have a mechanism to kick a team out just because their football team isn't very good, though, so it would be on Vandy to leave.

I know that Gonzaga would be the best basketball pickup, but in terms of national attention (especially in the East), I would have to think regaining Syracuse, or picking up a school like Wake Forest in the event of an ACC implosion, would still move the needle enough to make it worth while. I don't think that's happening though; even in the case of the ACC getting robbed of their ~5 top football teams in a major realignment, there are enough good teams (and likely available WVa) around to keep a solid 10-12 school conference that, while not playing SEC level football, would probably be perfectly happy where they were in terms of academics and athletics.

Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, UVA, VaT, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, WVa, and then pick up Cincinnati. One more spot would make a round 12 in this leftover ACC football conference...now that I think about it, there's one team out there that would probably fit right in to that final spot (assuming it wasn't filled by an orphaned Vanderbilt)...

[kayako]

Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, UVA, VaT, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, WVa, and then pick up Cincinnati. One more spot would make a round 12 in this leftover ACC football conference...now that I think about it, there's one team out there that would probably fit right in to that final spot

Pretty much this, although in a worst case scenario I would think UVA is also gone. It's probably still strong enough to poach WVU and Uconn, and I don't see a path that puts the Big East in position to take ACC or B12 teams.

[MullinMayhem]

Agree Vandy is prob a big stretch. But how awesome would it be to plan a long weekend trip to Nashville and see your fav hoops team there?! I've been to Nashville several times and it's awesome. Great food, entertainment, history, and generally safe. Tons and tons of huge apartment/condo complexes going up there. Definitely booming. As a New Yorker I'm used to my major city being built up since 100 yrs ago. Pretty cool to see a city actually growing up before everyone's eyes. As for Gonzaga, you can't tell me there isn't a way to get this done. No one will care about the geography. If FS1 gives us much more $, it will offset any annoying travel arrangements. I fear they will be poached by one of the ACC/PAC12/B1G if we do not. What is to stop them from being a basketball only member? That said, if they broke the mold on that, who knows if the Big East could just become another division of basketball only in the future for the ACC or something once the P5 splits from NCAA.

[butlerguy03]

That said, if they broke the mold on that, who knows if the Big East could just become another division of basketball only in the future for the ACC or something once the P5 splits from NCAA.

Now there's an interesting thought. Let's say the P4/5 whatever, decides to move on. They'd likely want one or two basketball-only conferences to join them - the Big East would be in a great situation to either merge or closely align with either the BIG or ACC. I think that is many many years down the road, but possible and fun to think about.

[Xudash]

That said, if they broke the mold on that, who knows if the Big East could just become another division of basketball only in the future for the ACC or something once the P5 splits from NCAA.

Now there's an interesting thought. Let's say the P4/5 whatever, decides to move on. They'd likely want one or two basketball-only conferences to join them - the Big East would be in a great situation to either merge or closely align with either the BIG or ACC. I think that is many many years down the road, but possible and fun to think about.

That would be interesting.

I suppose the ACC would make for the sexier date in basketball's case, but I would think the emphasis would be on money and stability. So, the B1G would seem to be the way to go were this to ever transpire. It would obviously be some kind of specialized, "satellite" arrangement, as the traditional B1G would most likely want to retain its AAU emphasis, while also continuing to emphasize football.

Nonetheless, were it to happen, we would have Marquette and Whisky notching it up a level, Georgetown "reunited" with the turtles, Creighton and the Cornhuskers playing with more reasons to kill one another, DePaul and Northwestern establishing a Windy City Shootout, St. John's and Seton Hall beating up on Rutgers, and Xavier and Ohio State teeing it up on a more frequent basis.

Basically, take the Gavitt Games and move them into the money tent.