Bracketology

[stever20]

But looking at things, even you have to admit why it was so easy to see SMU left out 2 years ago. ALL 4 resumes this year are stronger than SMU 2 years ago........

And the conference WAS stronger this year compared to last....

I don't think it's a guarantee at all that the conference will get 3, but it's very possible. If UConn beats Cincy, Cincy should still get in. If Tulsa makes the final, I think they are in. And UConn probably gets in there as well with the win over Cincy.

[X-man]

Ummm, who (besides AAAAAAAAAAAACCC-lover, Stever) cares?

[GumbyDamnit!]

Steven your problem is you look at the AAC ledger and hope everything falls into place and then you look at everyone else and hope it doesn't. Let me paint a scenario for you. Cincy beats UCONN, Temple and Houston ti win the AAC. Not just possible but very possible.

UCONN is out. Temple is out. Tulsa is out. And Houston would have needed the qualifier. 1 bid is as likely as 3. If I were to bet today I'd say that they are MOST likely a 2 bid league. But it's March and anything can happen. Wouldn't be surprised by 1, 2 or 3. Nothing is definitive but as of today I don't see more than 2.

[stever20]

Steven your problem is you look at the AAC ledger and hope everything falls into place and then you look at everyone else and hope it doesn't. Let me paint a scenario for you. Cincy beats UCONN, Temple and Houston ti win the AAC. Not just possible but very possible.

UCONN is out. Temple is out. Tulsa is out. And Houston would have needed the qualifier. 1 bid is as likely as 3. If I were to bet today I'd say that they are MOST likely a 2 bid league. But it's March and anything can happen. Wouldn't be surprised by 1, 2 or 3. Nothing is definitive but as of today I don't see more than 2.

UConn is favored over Cincy. Pretty tough to beat a good team 3x. We see that all the time....
Tulsa will be favored over Houston.

If just those 2 results happen, 3 bids becomes very likely.. And if it's Tulsa/Temple in the final, and Temple wins- all 4 could easily get in.

[Xavier4036]

how exactly is that a disaster? .

I would say a conference with exactly ZERO locks as of March 8th - pretty much had an absolutely disastrous season.

[JohnW22]

I find myself thinking at this point about how great the split has been for Big East schools. If the C7 had stayed in the AAC (granted, it would still have the BE brand behind it) we would currently be in a 6 bid, 18 BB school league. I wonder what the national narrative would be at that point. That's certainly not power conference territory.

It's an interesting thought. this year Nova, PC, SH, Cincy, UConn, Tulsa would have all been close to locks right now I think. Temple would have been extremely interesting. And Houston/Marquette would be close as well.... Probably would have squeezed at least 7 bids, if not 8.

1 thing as well- ECU would have been FB only at that point. so no basketball with them so only a 17 team league.

Thing is this year, instead of playing DePaul/St John's 2x, would have seen those 1 ea. Not that much difference between them and USF,UCF, and Tulane.

And I do think Georgetown wouldn't have gone into the funk that we've been in quite frankly. And Marquette may have been different as well quite frankly.....

Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Temple would not of had good enough records to make the tournament if they were in the Big East. They'd get walked all over. Dont even start with that Georgetown and Marquette crap, you better believe they would be better cuz they'd be playing the teams in the AAC and get the easy wins. Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Temple would be 7 or 8-10 in the Big East.

[adoraz]

Stever, I'll try to simplify this for you.

The regular season is over. AAC has no locks.

If you don't see a problem with this, you're clearly in denial.

[Xavier4036]

Stever, I'll try to simplify this for you.

The regular season is over. AAC has no locks.

If you don't see a problem with this, you're clearly in denial.

PERFECT.

I love it.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Steven your problem is you look at the AAC ledger and hope everything falls into place and then you look at everyone else and hope it doesn't. Let me paint a scenario for you. Cincy beats UCONN, Temple and Houston ti win the AAC. Not just possible but very possible.

UCONN is out. Temple is out. Tulsa is out. And Houston would have needed the qualifier. 1 bid is as likely as 3. If I were to bet today I'd say that they are MOST likely a 2 bid league. But it's March and anything can happen. Wouldn't be surprised by 1, 2 or 3. Nothing is definitive but as of today I don't see more than 2.

UConn is favored over Cincy. Pretty tough to beat a good team 3x. We see that all the time....
Tulsa will be favored over Houston.

If just those 2 results happen, 3 bids becomes very likely.. And if it's Tulsa/Temple in the final, and Temple wins- all 4 could easily get in.

Huh? Uconn is not a good team. They are a bubble team. They are not UConn of the early 2000's. You are saying all of this as if it is in a vacuum and if it falls exactly as you predict. I was only noting that as you paint a picture to 3, now 4 (LOL) for the AAC it is just as possible for 1. Do you disagree that if it happens as I described that the AAC would be a single bid league?

As of today the ONLY at-large teams that Lunardi has in from the AAC is Cincy and UCONN. UCONN is in the play in game. They lose to Cincy they are out. Tulsa is in the first 4 out. So beating the 74th RPI-ranked team will jump them over several other teams? I don't think so. Actually the bracket hurts them as they won't get a chance at Cincy or UConn until the finals and if they lose that , it doesn't help them.

I have some what if's for you...

What if Gonzaga knocks off St. Mary's?
What if FL beats ARK & Tex A&M?
What if Ohio St or Michigan beat Indiana or Mich St?
What if Ore St knocks off Cal?
What if someone completely unexpected wins one of these conf tournaments?

For every "what if" in the AAC that you present, you fail to acknowledge that anything else could possibly happen around the country to derail your master plan.

[stever20]

Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Temple would not of had good enough records to make the tournament if they were in the Big East. They'd get walked all over. Dont even start with that Georgetown and Marquette crap, you better believe they would be better cuz they'd be playing the teams in the AAC and get the easy wins. Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Temple would be 7 or 8-10 in the Big East.

Cincy in the Big East that we're talking about would have games with
DePaul
St John's
Tulane
UCF
USF
so there's 5 wins right there....
They swept UConn so 6...

Think it's very easy to see them with 4 more wins between Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Temple, Memphis, Marquette, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Providence, and Nova(toughest by far).... To say any of Tulsa, Cincy, or Temple would have been with 7-8 wins is a joke.... Not much of a difference playing USF and UCF and playing St John's or DePaul.....

Georgetown and Marquette would have gotten these 5 easy wins there, and would have had a tough rest of the schedule. Georgetown did play UConn and lose unfortunately.

A lot would hinge on who you played 2x quite frankly.