Big East Conference Expansion Ideas and Discussion

[Bostonspider]

Realistically I think we will go to 12 schools. St. Louis should be a shoe in. Then I will let others decide between Dayton and Richmond. It is pretty clear that after that, there is not much out there. I think they should move quickly. Get to 12, and move on from there.

This is basically what I have been hearing from sources at Richmond for a while, including word from the President of UR himself. 12 is sooner rather than later, SLU is basically a lock, and the last spot is between Richmond and Dayton. Some schools want Dayton as it has great fan support and is institutionally a perfect fit, others want Richmond for the better geographical fit and slightly better recent basketball results.

[DudeAnon]

I know Creighton fans won't be happy, but is WSU not a candidate? They are doing quite well (Read "Undefeated").

[notkirkcameron]

Realistically I think we will go to 12 schools. St. Louis should be a shoe in. Then I will let others decide between Dayton and Richmond. It is pretty clear that after that, there is not much out there. I think they should move quickly. Get to 12, and move on from there.

This is basically what I have been hearing from sources at Richmond for a while, including word from the President of UR himself. 12 is sooner rather than later, SLU is basically a lock, and the last spot is between Richmond and Dayton. Some schools want Dayton as it has great fan support and is institutionally a perfect fit, others want Richmond for the better geographical fit and slightly better recent basketball results.

Both Dayton AND Richmond would be lousy expansion candidates. They need the Big East way more than the Big East needs them.

No Success on the Court
Dayton has only won one NCAA Tournament game since 1990.
Take away Richmond's Sweet 16 run in 2011 and it's practically the same story with only two NCAA tournament wins since 1989, thus making that run the definition of a fluke. Richmond has only made it that far in the tournament once before (1988) since they started playing basketball in 1912.

Hardly any new TVs for television partners
Dayton is the 64th-largest TV market. Richmond is the 57th. If either school were added, they would be the second-smallest TV market in the expanded 12-team conference (Omaha at #74).

Big East Markets in Nielsen Ratings
(1) New York City (St. Johns/Seton Hall)
(3) Chicago (DePaul)
(4) Philadelphia (Villanova)
(8) Washington, DC (Georgetown)
(26) Indianapolis (Butler)
(34) Milwaukee (Marquette)
(35) Cincinnati (Xavier)
(53) Providence-New Bedford (PC)
(74) Omaha (Creighton)

Yes, adding two extra teams adds extra games as a total for the league, and content for its television partners, but it does not necessarily add extra games for the big TV draws. A ten-team, double-round robin gives you an 18-game conference schedule. Doing a double round robin at 12 teams means a 22-game conference season, which I'm pretty sure would be unprecedented. What is more likely is a divisional split either based on the Pac-12's model (5 teams twice, and 6 teams once), or the old Big East (Play everybody once, plus 7 mirror games). Bottom line, it's not more than 18 conference games, so yea, you're getting more games on TV, but still only 18 of them have Georgetown. Still only 18 have Villanova. Still only 18 have Marquette. But now you have to televise 36 SLU and Richmond/Dayton conference games per year.

Unimpressive Gate Results (at least for Richmond)
Also, according to the NCAA, While Dayton averaged 12,438 fans last season, Richmond only averaged 5,960 fans last year for home games. If Richmond were added, they would be the lowest-drawing team in the Big East. Dayton's gate crowd is honestly the only reason besides UD fans continued trolling that they're even in the discussion. And even with a packed UD Arena, Dayton is a poor man's Xavier. They don't give the league anything the league doesn't already have.

I'm honestly perplexed at how Richmond keeps coming up as a legitimate candidate unless we're just randomly picking East Coast private schools. They bring exactly nothing to the table. No success on the court. No gate receipts. No large media market for FS1. I don't think either Richmond or Dayton grow the pie enough to convince each of the university presidents to take a smaller slice, but Richmond ESPECIALLY doesn't move the needle.

The Big East is at 10, and I think they'll remain at 10 for the foreseeable future, unless some gamechanger happens like UConn or Duke drops D1 football or Notre Dame leaves the ACC.

[stever20]

Realistically I think we will go to 12 schools. St. Louis should be a shoe in. Then I will let others decide between Dayton and Richmond. It is pretty clear that after that, there is not much out there. I think they should move quickly. Get to 12, and move on from there.

This is basically what I have been hearing from sources at Richmond for a while, including word from the President of UR himself. 12 is sooner rather than later, SLU is basically a lock, and the last spot is between Richmond and Dayton. Some schools want Dayton as it has great fan support and is institutionally a perfect fit, others want Richmond for the better geographical fit and slightly better recent basketball results.

Both Dayton AND Richmond would be lousy expansion candidates. They need the Big East way more than the Big East needs them.

Dayton has only won one NCAA Tournament game since 1990.
Take away Richmond's Sweet 16 run in 2011 and it's practically the same story with only two NCAA tournament wins since 1989, thus making that run the definition of a fluke.

Dayton is the 64th-largest TV market. Richmond is the 57th. If either school were added, they would be the second-smallest TV market in the expanded 12-team conference (Omaha at #74).

Big East Markets in Nielsen Ratings
(1) New York City (St. Johns/Seton Hall)
(3) Chicago (DePaul)
(4) Philadelphia (Villanova)
(8) Washington, DC (Georgetown)
(26) Indianapolis (Butler)
(34) Milwaukee (Marquette)
(35) Cincinnati (Xavier)
(53) Providence-New Bedford (PC)
(74) Omaha (Creighton)

Also, according to the NCAA, While Dayton averaged 12,438 fans last season, Richmond only averaged 5,960 fans last year for home games. If Richmond were added, they would be the lowest-drawing team in the Big East. Dayton's gate crowd is honestly the only reason besides UD fans continued trolling that they're even in the discussion. And even with a packed UD Arena, Dayton is a poor man's Xavier. They don't give the league anything the league doesn't already have.

I'm perplexed at how Richmond keeps coming up as a legitimate candidate unless we're just randomly picking East Coast private schools. No success on the court. No gate receipts. No large media market for FS1. I don't think either Richmond or Dayton grow the pie enough to convince each of the university presidents to take a smaller slice, but Richmond ESPECIALLY doesn't move the needle.

Not to mention, they aren't even the top dog in their own city. Hopefully VCU does enough that Fox makes it clear any expansion must include them or Fox won't pay the BE more money.

[ljay]

So, how many 11 team leagues have existed? Is a 20 game league round robin too much?

A) I even recall the MVC at 11 at some point in the past so it would not be a brand new thing. I blieve there have been a couple others.

B) Yes, 20 league games would lead to cannibalism and few OOC oportunities.

St. Louis is the logical expansion partner and an eastern school would balance the east/midwest mix but insitiutional fit is the mantra of the Prez's and it's just so damned hard to figure who that would be.

[Xudash]

What is the fundamental reason for expanding? Would someone please explain that to me.

By my way of thinking, the Big East is a BRAND. It's comprised of basketball-centric schools that happen to be private, academically oriented and mostly Catholic, though religious affiliation is not an overwhelming driver in this deal.

With all due respect to the top candidates for expansion, would any of them "move the needle" when it comes to improved television ratings? No, they wouldn't, but then again adding a Duke or UCONN barely would move the needle as well, when one considers the dynamics of collegiate basketball television broadcasts (i.e. abundant inventory of them with very few regular season contests garnering meaningful ratings).

Is it about getting to a larger composition in order to "maximize" NCAA Tournament bids? Would two more schools have the effect of leading to, say, 4 to 6 bids, versus what may be a 3 to 5 bid look for the 10-team group at this point? I can see where another 1 to 2 bids at the increment makes sense, especially sense FOX apparently is revenue neutral on 10 versus 12 teams; they'll adjust upwards for 11 and 12 to keep the original 10 whole, in terms of payout.

I would love to know the logic in going plus 3 with 2 to follow shortly thereafter. I can't chalk that up to a situation of having too much to digest by going to 12 immediately. It had to primarily be about perceived fit. Xavier was obvious. Butler appeared obvious with Stevens at the helm, but Butler is facing some serious growing pains, given the coaching turnover, and having come out of the Horizon so recently; Butler has to wrestle with its facilities issues and approach to recruiting in order to not get run over in a conference like this. Creighton? Creighton has proven to be a marvelous addition to the Big East. So, where does the Big East go from there? I think that gets back to the fundamental reason for why it would feel compelled to expand.

If going to 3 and not 5 immediately meant that they simply weren't certain about numbers 11 and 12, versus not being able to digest 5 initially, then they are not going to be any more certain of numbers 11 and 12 after a year or two. Respecting that things can change dramatically at any school (i.e. see Butler and the loss of Stevens), why not give it a few years to see who is trending towards a sustainable foundation.

Knowing that it isn't about television ratings initially - perhaps later as the brand builds, but still understanding the dynamics of regular season broadcasts - St. Louis certainly appears to be a lock. Excellent school, beautiful facilities, strong fan base when winning, major television market, new television market, and SLU would provide some logistical logic between Marquette and Creighton, as well as a hub airport for travel in the Midwest in general.

My next choice would be Richmond. Truly excellent school that just completed a wonderful renovation of its facilities. It has proven it can compete at the NCAA Tournament level. And it would obviously provide east/west balance, were we to go to 12 with SLU being the midwestern addition.

Beyond all that, what is the fundamental reason for considering expansion?

[notkirkcameron]

So, how many 11 team leagues have existed? Is a 20 game league round robin too much?

A) I even recall the MVC at 11 at some point in the past so it would not be a brand new thing. I blieve there have been a couple others.

B) Yes, 20 league games would lead to cannibalism and few OOC oportunities.

St. Louis is the logical expansion partner and an eastern school would balance the east/midwest mix but insitiutional fit is the mantra of the Prez's and it's just so damned hard to figure who that would be.

When the Big Ten had 11 teams, they had either an 18-game or a 16-game conference slate. The Mountain West has 11 teams this year and they have an 18-game conference slate.

And that's precisely my argument. The only reason anybody talks about Dayton or Richmond is because everybody assumes 1.) Expansion is inevitable, and 2.) Saint Louis as Team #11 is inevitable. What I'm saying is, "Why does the Big East have to expand?"

Expansion decisions in past years were made for primarily three reasons.
1.) To hit 12 teams, the magic number for a football conference championship game (Mountain West, B10, Pac-12, C-USA, even American trying to find a 12th team)
2.) to protect a conference from depletion by raids (A-10 going up to 15 teams last year, Big 10 grabbing Rutgers and Maryland to protect Penn State once PSU was surrounded by ACC schools).
3.) Gain access to new TV markets (B10 adding Rutgers & UMD, ACC adding Cuse & Pitt, SEC adding A&M and Mizzou).

Dayton and Richmond give the Big East none of those. These are problems not faced by the Big East as the hegemonic basketball-only conference. It's not like the Big East has to protect itself from raids by the Valley or the Horizon League.

Even Saint Louis, while on the upswing, is not exactly on sturdy ground to be considered for expansion. They do have a new arena, are near the top of the A-10 each of the last 3 years, draw reasonably well, and have a Big East market-size at least on par with Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee. However, SLU doesn't exactly have a pedigree. Saint Louis has 8 NCAA Tournament appearances in program history. Put another way, last year's senior class at SLU was responsible for 25% of their NCAA Tournament appearances. If Jim Crews gets another coaching offer somewhere else, will SLU be able to carry on at a similar level? Just look at the difficulties Butler is having this season.

[Jet915]

Don't expand as of now. SLU, Dayton, VCU and Richmond aren't going anywhere. Wait a few years. You never know, if the Big XII takes Cincy and UCONN is stuck in the AAC, we'll find out how long they will wait for a horrible football program and traveling to Tulane, SMU, ECU, Tulsa and Houston for road games wears on them.

[senditinjerome]

The only way that Richmond gets in if Shaka leaves VCU and they have a few bad years before the next 2 teams are added.

The league would look foolish if it took the #2 team in the city of Richmond instead of a perennial top #25 school that has a dynamic young head coach and a national brand.

[HoosierPal]

Realistically I think we will go to 12 schools. St. Louis should be a shoe in. Then I will let others decide between Dayton and Richmond. It is pretty clear that after that, there is not much out there. I think they should move quickly. Get to 12, and move on from there.

This is basically what I have been hearing from sources at Richmond for a while, including word from the President of UR himself. 12 is sooner rather than later, SLU is basically a lock, and the last spot is between Richmond and Dayton. Some schools want Dayton as it has great fan support and is institutionally a perfect fit, others want Richmond for the better geographical fit and slightly better recent basketball results.

If you look at Dayton vs Richmond, do you pick a nice arena with a loyal backing with Dayton or do you look at a solid program, a newly refurbished arena, and a $1.9 billion endowment with Richmond? Why not both? Someone later on says if you erase Richmond's Sweet 16 squad, then they have nothing. Heck, erase my Bulldog's two Final Fours and we have nothing.

Expansion will happen. It doesn't matter what forum board posters want, money and NCAA credits talk louder than a message board. And since it will happen, why wait? If getting the kinks out was the reason, and I say that was valid enough, the kinks had better be out by now, or we need new leadership.

Someone commented that Richmond currently would have the lowest Big East attendance. Please review the DePaul attendance and how they 'pad' reported attendance by counting those students who SHOULD be there but aren't, tickets given away but not used, and other creative measures. Actual DPU attendance was around 2,500 last year. [Start googling the new Chicago arena and this subject is highlighted and a concern for the project.]