Bracketology

[GumbyDamnit!]

13 of Memphis' 21 wins are quad 3 and 4.

And 3 of their losses are Q3 losses. I mean PC is similar in that regard but they balance out the ledger with SEVEN Q1 wins, 4 of which came on the road.

[stever20]

Memphis absolutely has a chance at an At Large. They are 21-9 and play @ Houston on Sunday. win that and they're 22-9 with 3 Q1 wins and a 7-6 away from home record. They'd probably enter the AAC tourney with a spot quite frankly.

Once they get into the tourney all these bubble teams play each other and someone has to win. And the competition is good enough to where the winner will improve their lot.

The AAC definitely won't have great seeds, but they are going to have at least 2 and maybe 3-4 teams make the tourney.

So you are banking on Memphis winning at Houston--who is on their home floor and are probably pissed to have lost to the Huskies, and have revenge on their minds from losing by 1 at Memphis earlier this year?

Curious that all 3 AAC bubble teams have exactly 2 Q1 wins each to date. You always play out these scenarios thinking that everything will magically fall into place for the AAC and the BE bubble teams will certainly falter. Do you think any of those 3 can stand before the committee with 2 Q1 wins to their name (which in some cases may only come from conference games in a weak conference) and have any confidence in a selection?

Lastly I'm assuming you feel that the AAC getting 4 involves a bid stealer, right? Wouldn't you think a 4th team getting an auto bid would only hurt one of the other 2 AAC bubble teams? Because if you are expecting 4 at large bids from that league, considering how poorly they performed OOC, you have officially lost your mind.

I'm not banking on Memphis, but I'm saying that if any of about 4-5 teams makes the AAC final, they will be in the tourney win or lose. Even if Memphis loses on Sunday, but makes the final, they're 23-11 with most likely depending on how the tourney has gone on 3 Q1 wins and an over .500 record at home.

One thing also with Memphis, they had a good OOC. With 2 big bubble wins over vs NC State and @ Tennessee

If the AAC tourney has it Cincy 1 seed, Houston 2 seed, Tulsa 3 seed, Wichita 4 seed, UConn 5 seed, and Memphis 6 seed.....
Cincy wins in QF
Wichita beats UConn in QF
Memphis beats Tulsa in QF
Houston wins in QF

I think at that point Houston of course is in. The winner of Cincy/Wichita is in. The loser is not out, especially if it's Wichita. If Memphis beats Houston, I think they are in.

[stever20]

Bubble teams probably catch a break that Northern Iowa loses early in the Arch Madness. Don't think they make it now.

In essence though Northern Iowa becomes a NIT bid thief. MVC wasn't getting a NIT team so they will be taking a spot that the MVC wouldn't otherwise have gotten.

[Husky_U]

Memphis absolutely has a chance at an At Large. They are 21-9 and play @ Houston on Sunday. win that and they're 22-9 with 3 Q1 wins and a 7-6 away from home record. They'd probably enter the AAC tourney with a spot quite frankly.

Once they get into the tourney all these bubble teams play each other and someone has to win. And the competition is good enough to where the winner will improve their lot.

The AAC definitely won't have great seeds, but they are going to have at least 2 and maybe 3-4 teams make the tourney.

So you are banking on Memphis winning at Houston--who is on their home floor and are probably pissed to have lost to the Huskies, and have revenge on their minds from losing by 1 at Memphis earlier this year?

Curious that all 3 AAC bubble teams have exactly 2 Q1 wins each to date. You always play out these scenarios thinking that everything will magically fall into place for the AAC and the BE bubble teams will certainly falter. Do you think any of those 3 can stand before the committee with 2 Q1 wins to their name (which in some cases may only come from conference games in a weak conference) and have any confidence in a selection?

Lastly I'm assuming you feel that the AAC getting 4 involves a bid stealer, right? Wouldn't you think a 4th team getting an auto bid would only hurt one of the other 2 AAC bubble teams? Because if you are expecting 4 at large bids from that league, considering how poorly they performed OOC, you have officially lost your mind.

Ya, and if Memphis has a spot like Stevie suggests, UCONN must too. I mean, the Huskies already have 3 Q1 wins and pretty much the same NET as the Tigers.

[kayako]

Northern Iowa just got crushed by Drake. MVC may have stolen a bid.

[ArmyVet]

Northern Iowa just got crushed by Drake. MVC may have stolen a bid.

I wonder the same thing, but I bet they end up on the outside looking in.

[Hall2012]

I think you're missing the fact that the only Q1 games in the AAC tournament are against Houston, Wichita, and Cincy. Then Wichita and Cincy are so borderline that beating them, quite frankly, will also certainly knock them out of the net top 50. That leaves basically 1 opportunity for these teams to improve their at large resumes (which for many may not be available until the final when a win gets the auto bid anyway) among multiple opportunities to torch it.

Anyone other than Houston winning the bc AAC tournament would have to be considered a bid thief at this point.

The NET is far more stable than what you are saying. Just not seeing huge drops...

If any of Memphis, Wichita, or Cincy just make the title game, with where they are right now, they are in the tournament. They're already close enough, and with 2 conference tourney wins, they'd be in easily.

They have nice looking records but the resumes lack any substance. Those 3 need to reach the final just to keep any hope of an at-large bid and for Memphis it very well may not be enough. For Cincy and Wichita it depends on bid thieves and other bubble teams. The disadvantage for the AAC's bubble teams is that they're spending their conference tournaments dodging land mines while P6 bubble teams are looking for quality wins. They basically have to hope to reach the final and have no bid thieves and have nobody behind them on the bubble add to their resumes.

[ArmyVet]

Lunardi has UNI playing in Dayton now. He bumped Cincinnati out of the field.

[stever20]

Lunardi has UNI playing in Dayton now. He bumped Cincinnati out of the field.

What exactly does UNI have on their resume? 4 Q1 and 2 wins. Compare that to Cincy for instance with 10- with a chance of more in the AAC tourney- plus Vermont is #77 right now, so JUST outside Q2.

[Savannah Jay]

Lunardi has UNI playing in Dayton now. He bumped Cincinnati out of the field.

So Memphis is still safe...LOL.

Last Sunday, UNI beat Drake by 27 in Des Moines. For Drake to turn that around 5 days later is pretty incredible. But Drake's head coach is a former CU assistant to both Altman and McDermott and certainly has experienced winning in St. Louis.