Bracketology

[stever20]

you do understand for the AAC that the only way they get 1 team in is If the AAC title game was Houston vs someone other than Memphis, Wichita, Cincy, UConn, and maybe even Tulsa. And Houston winning the game obviously. If Any of Memphis, Wichita, or Cincy make the title game, they are easy ins for the NCAA tourney.

First off, Tulsa isn't getting an at large. Doesn't matter how many more games they win. They have a NET of 75 (like, worse than Georgetown and St. Johns) and little chance to change it. What's more, Tulsa and the Turds play this weekend so one will take another L. If it's Wichita, their NET will drop further (last night's loss dropped them from 44 to 48). Memphis and Houston play. One's gonna lose (game is in Houston so prob Memphis, whose NET is 60).

Houston is the only AAC assured to make the tournament. Memphis and Tulsa are not getting at large bids. If Cincy or Wichita don't win a couple more games, they will be in trouble. If they do make it, they will be the type of seeds that you've "warned" us about re: Big East and our troublesome round robin (ie. seeds that don't make deep runs, as you've mentioned when talking out of the other side of your mouth).

Memphis absolutely has a chance at an At Large. They are 21-9 and play @ Houston on Sunday. win that and they're 22-9 with 3 Q1 wins and a 7-6 away from home record. They'd probably enter the AAC tourney with a spot quite frankly.

Once they get into the tourney all these bubble teams play each other and someone has to win. And the competition is good enough to where the winner will improve their lot.

The AAC definitely won't have great seeds, but they are going to have at least 2 and maybe 3-4 teams make the tourney.

[Django]

When UCONN leaves the AAACK it will take its 32 appearances with it, so as far as current members of each conference, this is where the all-time ranking of Conferences and their NCAA tournament bids stands today. After Uconn leaves as of this summer, not counting this year's tournament (when we will get the same or more bids than the Pac, SEC, Big12 and AACK) the Big East would have 286 bids on this chart, and the AAC will go down to 170, with the A10 quickly approaching. Better start printing up those Power8 T-shirts Stevie boy.

Rank Conference All-time bids
1 ACC 397
2 Big Ten 309
3 SEC 284
4 Big 12 259
5 Pac-12 254
5 Big East 254
7 The American 202
8 Atlantic 10 153
9 Mountain West 122
10 West Coast 121
11 Conference USA 114
12 Ivy 76
13 Mid-American 74
14 Missouri Valley 67

[kayako]

3/6 Bracketville: https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

2 Hall (west)
2 Nova (midwest)
4 Creighton
6 Butler
8 Providence
9 Marquette
10 Xavier (last bye)

3/6 Palm: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

2 Nova (midwest)
3 Hall (East)
3 Creighton (South)
5 Butler
7 Marquette
9 Providence
9 Xavier

3/6 Lunardi: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/250

2 Hall (midwest)
3 Nova (south)
4 Creighton (west)
5 Butler
7 Marquette
8 Providence
11 Xavier (3rd in)

All 3 brackets assume Tulsa winning its conference tourney.

[GumbyDamnit!]

When UCONN leaves the AAACK it will take its 32 appearances with it, so as far as current members of each conference, this is where the all-time ranking of Conferences and their NCAA tournament bids stands today. After Uconn leaves as of this summer, not counting this year's tournament (when we will get the same or more bids than the Pac, SEC, Big12 and AACK) the Big East would have 286 bids on this chart, and the AAC will go down to 170, with the A10 quickly approaching. Better start printing up those Power8 T-shirts Stevie boy.

Rank Conference All-time bids
1 ACC 397
2 Big Ten 309
3 SEC 284
4 Big 12 259
5 Pac-12 254
5 Big East 254
7 The American 202
8 Atlantic 10 153
9 Mountain West 122
10 West Coast 121
11 Conference USA 114
12 Ivy 76
13 Mid-American 74
14 Missouri Valley 67

Interesting #'s Mr. Unchained. Per school, it looks like:
1 ACC - 26.5
2 Big 12 - 25.9
3 Big East - 25.4 (26.0 w/ UConn)
4.Big Ten - 22.1
5 Pac-12 - 21.2
6 SEC - 20.3
7 The American - 16.8 (15.5 w/out UConn)
8 Atlantic 10 - 10.9

[GoldenWarrior11]

When UCONN leaves the AAACK it will take its 32 appearances with it, so as far as current members of each conference, this is where the all-time ranking of Conferences and their NCAA tournament bids stands today. After Uconn leaves as of this summer, not counting this year's tournament (when we will get the same or more bids than the Pac, SEC, Big12 and AACK) the Big East would have 286 bids on this chart, and the AAC will go down to 170, with the A10 quickly approaching. Better start printing up those Power8 T-shirts Stevie boy.

Rank Conference All-time bids
1 ACC 397
2 Big Ten 309
3 SEC 284
4 Big 12 259
5 Pac-12 254
5 Big East 254
7 The American 202
8 Atlantic 10 153
9 Mountain West 122
10 West Coast 121
11 Conference USA 114
12 Ivy 76
13 Mid-American 74
14 Missouri Valley 67

If you add of all of the AAC program tournament bids of the past 50 years (since 1970), they have had a total of 133 tournament bids. That averages out to under three bids annually into the NCAA Tournament. Now, before any other apologist wants to move the goal posts on how USF didn't become a D1 member until 1971, or that UCF didn't move up until 1990, or how Memphis had five postseason appearances taken away due to infractions in the 1980's, or how Tulane didn't play from 1985-1989 due to the program being disbanded after a national point shaving scandal, let's - in order to ensure accuracy - also include data from only the past 30 years (from 1990); this would undeniably reveal the total worth of the league at the D1 level while competing for tournament appearances (with only one total season being vacated - Memphis, 2008). That comes to a total of 94 tournament bids. That averages to just barely over three bids annually into the NCAA Tournament.

The AAC getting three bids in a given season is the historical norm and average for this grouping of teams together. Anything less would be underachieving, and anything more would be overachieving. However, expecting or declaring this is a league that can routinely get 5-6 bids annually is not only laughable, but also in complete denial of past history and success.

To date, Conference USA (1995-2005) was a much stronger and superior basketball league. It had a power program (Louisville), with strong programs that could solidify it annually (Cincinnati, Marquette, Memphis) and secondary basketball-first programs that helped elevate and maintain it (UAB, Charlotte, DePaul, Saint Louis). However, once again, the bottom programs during this time (Houston, USF, TCU, ECU, Tulane and Southern Mississippi) absolutely dragged the perception down and prevented the conference from truly being considered an elite league. The conference had 43 NCAA Tournament appearances during this time frame (all from the top-8 programs), including eight Sweet 16 appearances, four Elite Eight appearances and two Final Four appearances. Now that UConn is gone, the AAC undeniably lacks an elite program to help anchor it annually.

[stever20]

3/6 Bracketville: https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

2 Hall (west)
2 Nova (midwest)
4 Creighton
6 Butler
8 Providence
9 Marquette
10 Xavier (last bye)

3/6 Palm: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

2 Nova (midwest)
3 Hall (East)
3 Creighton (South)
5 Butler
7 Marquette
9 Providence
9 Xavier

3/6 Lunardi: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/250

2 Hall (midwest)
3 Nova (south)
4 Creighton (west)
5 Butler
7 Marquette
8 Providence
11 Xavier (3rd in)

All 3 brackets assume Tulsa winning its conference tourney.

For Palm and Bracketville- Cincy is 1st team out, so it's a moot point....

HUGE weekend for Xavier IMO. They have a shot vs Butler...

meanwhile the 3 teams right behind them in Bracketville have huge chances to get wins that would pass X up for 2 of them(even if X wins)
Texas Tech- Kansas
UCLA- USC
Stanford- Oregon

Really think for Xavier now, if they don't beat Butler, they're going to Dayton at best. A loss to DePaul would be it for them probably. To avoid Dayton if they lose to Butler, they'd need to beat not only DePaul, but also probably Villanova.

[kayako]

For Palm and Bracketville- Cincy is 1st team out, so it's a moot point....

Moot because you're looking at it from AAC's angle. Not a moot point for Xavier.

Yes, a win vs Butler would make them a lock. Only beating DePaul still probably has them in good shape, but hard to predict how the bubble, especially teams "below" them will perform. Lose both and it's probably not a good situation to be in. Again, going to Dayton isn't as bad as you make it out to be.

[Savannah Jay]

you do understand for the AAC that the only way they get 1 team in is If the AAC title game was Houston vs someone other than Memphis, Wichita, Cincy, UConn, and maybe even Tulsa. And Houston winning the game obviously. If Any of Memphis, Wichita, or Cincy make the title game, they are easy ins for the NCAA tourney.

First off, Tulsa isn't getting an at large. Doesn't matter how many more games they win. They have a NET of 75 (like, worse than Georgetown and St. Johns) and little chance to change it. What's more, Tulsa and the Turds play this weekend so one will take another L. If it's Wichita, their NET will drop further (last night's loss dropped them from 44 to 48). Memphis and Houston play. One's gonna lose (game is in Houston so prob Memphis, whose NET is 60).

Houston is the only AAC assured to make the tournament. Memphis and Tulsa are not getting at large bids. If Cincy or Wichita don't win a couple more games, they will be in trouble. If they do make it, they will be the type of seeds that you've "warned" us about re: Big East and our troublesome round robin (ie. seeds that don't make deep runs, as you've mentioned when talking out of the other side of your mouth).

Memphis absolutely has a chance at an At Large. They are 21-9 and play @ Houston on Sunday. win that and they're 22-9 with 3 Q1 wins and a 7-6 away from home record. They'd probably enter the AAC tourney with a spot quite frankly.

Once they get into the tourney all these bubble teams play each other and someone has to win. And the competition is good enough to where the winner will improve their lot.

The AAC definitely won't have great seeds, but they are going to have at least 2 and maybe 3-4 teams make the tourney.

bullsh--. "Enter the tournament with a spot, quite frankly." Show me a bracket that has memphis in it right now. You can make shit up all day long, doesn't make it true. There are three current bracketologists listed above. Show me where Memphis is in any bracket right now. One bracket (CBS) has Houston in and Wichita and Cincy as first four out. ESPN bracket has Houston in, CIncy last four in, Wichita first four out. Bracketville has Houston in, and list CIncy (69 seed, so first team out), WIchita 70 seed, and Memphis 74. 13 of Memphis' 21 wins are quad 3 and 4. Please

[stever20]

bullsh--. "Enter the tournament with a spot, quite frankly." Show me a bracket that has memphis in it right now. You can make shit up all day long, doesn't make it true. There are three current bracketologists listed above. Show me where Memphis is in any bracket right now. One bracket (CBS) has Houston in and Wichita and Cincy as first four out. ESPN bracket has Houston in, CIncy last four in, Wichita first four out. Bracketville has Houston in, and list CIncy (69 seed, so first team out), WIchita 70 seed, and Memphis 74.

I said that if they beat Houston they would move into the bracket. Their resume if they beat Houston is actually pretty good. Including bubble wins over NC State and Tennessee. And if they weren't in, they'd be like 1st team out. They absolutely are in play for an at large spot.

CBS has Cincy as 1st team out. Bracketville has Cincy as 1st team out. Both have Tulsa in automatic, so if Tulsa falls, Cincy gets elevated.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Memphis absolutely has a chance at an At Large. They are 21-9 and play @ Houston on Sunday. win that and they're 22-9 with 3 Q1 wins and a 7-6 away from home record. They'd probably enter the AAC tourney with a spot quite frankly.

Once they get into the tourney all these bubble teams play each other and someone has to win. And the competition is good enough to where the winner will improve their lot.

The AAC definitely won't have great seeds, but they are going to have at least 2 and maybe 3-4 teams make the tourney.

So you are banking on Memphis winning at Houston--who is on their home floor and are probably pissed to have lost to the Huskies, and have revenge on their minds from losing by 1 at Memphis earlier this year?

Curious that all 3 AAC bubble teams have exactly 2 Q1 wins each to date. You always play out these scenarios thinking that everything will magically fall into place for the AAC and the BE bubble teams will certainly falter. Do you think any of those 3 can stand before the committee with 2 Q1 wins to their name (which in some cases may only come from conference games in a weak conference) and have any confidence in a selection?

Lastly I'm assuming you feel that the AAC getting 4 involves a bid stealer, right? Wouldn't you think a 4th team getting an auto bid would only hurt one of the other 2 AAC bubble teams? Because if you are expecting 4 at large bids from that league, considering how poorly they performed OOC, you have officially lost your mind.