Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Bill Marsh]

http://www.testudotimes.com/2016/4/10/11399802/b1g-expansion-primer-of-rumors-and-facts

Lots of juicy tidbits:

[i]Most of the current rumors come from twitter.com/bluevodreal a general Michigan insider who seems like he's been better than average talking Michigan football recruits, and basketball staff hires. I've never had him (or her?) as a source on conference realignment before, but he is purporting the rumors that UVA, UNC, G-tech, FSU, Duke, and Notre Dame to the B1G is a done deal with a timeline of this summer. He's certainly not the first to make those rumors, just the latest. Everything I have ever read suggests that the B1G would happily take all of those schools except FSU and possibly Duke. The rumored payout number is supposedly triple the current payouts, that puts it firmly the range of 70-90 million per school. Which, I can't fathom as being true, but that's what it is.

Except FSU, all of the mentioned schools instantly meet the requirements to join the B1G. But here are the sticking points for me. How much sense does it make to take both UNC and Duke? Do they both add enough TV eyeballs to make adding both schools financially worth it? But if a bloc of ACC schools leave, the GoR and the exit fees become negligible as the conference is basically dissolved with its core leaving. Yes Duke Basketball is a big deal, but that doesn't matter as much as it should. The best way to illustrate this point: Kentucky football makes more money for the school than Kentucky Basketball.

I'm very reluctant to draw any conclusions about finances from the Kentucky- Duke comparison for a variety of reasons:

1. Kentucky reports higher operating expenses for basketball than for football. What?! We know that it is more expensive to run a football program than a basketball program. Maybe it's Calipai's absurdly high salary. IDK. But something's off that makes this atypical.

2. In it's annual report, Kentucky reports scholarships separately from program operating expenses. Unfortunately scholarships are a program operating expense. The cost of football scholarships is at least 7-8 times greater than the cost of basketball scholarships. So, we can subtract millions from that reported profit margin for football.

3. Duke is different than other schools - especially from SEC schools like Kentucky. Sports beyond football and men's basketball matter at Duke. They don't at Kentucky. In a recent season, here's the revenue comparison from those other sports at the 2 schools.:

Duke - $24.2 million
U KY - $2.3 million

That's not a typo - almost $22 million more in revenue at Duke than at Kentucky from sports like women's basketball, LAX, etc. Olympic sports matter in the B1G. That may explain some of Duke's appeal to them.

[DeltaV]

What's interesting to me is what will happen to the ACC leftovers, if the above scenario is accurate? Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, and Wake seem to be getting very little love. Do they raid the AAC? Do they wish to remain in what then basically becomes CUSA 3.0, with directional state universities which are glorified community colleges (honestly, I'm kinda assuming that someone will pick up UConn)? If they get left out, do they see the writing on the wall that they will be shut out of the 'big time' football money, and step down to FCS, or do they keep throwing money at the problem?

And honestly, what the hell is the point of having 20 team BIG and SEC? At that point, just rename yourselves the American and National College Football Leagues.

There's enough similar schools in the AAC if the Big 12 gets picked apart that they would probably reload, just at the lower level. But BC, Wake, and Cuse I think would have a little more pride than that. No idea on Pitt or Louisville though; SEC doesn't need UL, and Pitt is further north than they're mentioned pursuing (though it would give them a team in PA).

[ArmyVet]

Just as likely as any of these sort of far fetched scenarios is that absolutely nothing occurs. And in that case, a lot of people will have wasted a lot of time hypothesizing about realignment.

[DeltaV]

Just as likely as any of these sort of far fetched scenarios is that absolutely nothing occurs. And in that case, a lot of people will have wasted a lot of time hypothesizing about realignment.

Meh, its a dead time in sports. College ball is over, and for other sports people, football is in a lul, hockey and NBA playoffs don't matter for another few weeks. Its a distraction.

Although, I remember being told that a primarily basketball league would never work out, and we try to stick it out with the football programs, we could never go it alone. That was before Fox was desperate for content though...

[gtmoBlue]

In any reconfiguration scenario (of which there are several) a conference team plots the various strategies/tactics.
They layout most likely/least likely actions, most beneficial/least beneficial effects of a strategy and so forth. They look at what can most likely go wrong - and factor in mitigating actions to lessen or prevent negative effects.

A) The leftovers could rebuild with lesser universities (Cusa, A-10, AAC).
B) They could align/join another Football five conference - if any would take them. After all they had just been pillaged by the 3 FF conferences they would seek to merge with. And The PAC12 is not going to play with east coast squads.
C) the private members could enter into negotiations with the BE - based on the BE's 4 presidential criteria. Any possible offer of membership would be based on the criteria and in this case - "Best fit".
It could be none are offered, some are offered, or all. It could be none are interested, some, or all. If such a ACC Armageddon would occur, it would be both facinating and educational.

[DeltaV]

Interesting (to me) rebuild scenario to a heavily raided ACC:

Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Wake

Join with

UConn, Cincinnati, temple, Memphis

As the base of a conference. Might need a one or two to flesh out out (Vandy getting bumped) but they could survive with 8 teams, and maybe pick up VCU, George Mason to bring basketball up to 10.

Actually, at least as a basketball conference, that's not half bad...it avoids being full of directional state colleges, hits plenty of metro areas, and has some good rivalries, without being as spread out as the current AAC is.

Edit: Forgot about Louisville...i don't think anyone is hunting for them either. Keep VCU, scratch GM, and that's actually quite the rival conference I just built in our own backyard. Whoops...

[Bill Marsh]

Interesting (to me) rebuild scenario to a heavily raided ACC:

Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Wake

Join with

UConn, Cincinnati, temple, Memphis

As the base of a conference. Might need a one or two to flesh out out (Vandy getting bumped) but they could survive with 8 teams, and maybe pick up VCU, George Mason to bring basketball up to 10.

Actually, at least as a basketball conference, that's not half bad...it avoids being full of directional state colleges, hits plenty of metro areas, and has some good rivalries, without being as spread out as the current AAC is.

Edit: Forgot about Louisville...i don't think anyone is hunting for them either. Keep VCU, scratch GM, and that's actually quite the rival conference I just built in our own backyard. Whoops...

The remnants of the ACC depleted by the loss of the 6 teams mentioned in the rumor above still looks like this:

Miami
Clemson
NC State
Wake Forest
VA Tech
Louisville
Pitt
Syracuse
BC

I think that group sticks together unless their are further losses to the SEC. Anyone who wanted to leave would have to buy their way out. They would likely only do so if they were leaving for something much better.

The big question is what would Texas do? Everything else would hinge on that. Even a B1G expansion would change if Texas would agree to their terms. Texas could also command a new conference formed by merging the ACC and Big XII, forming East & West divisions. Add BYU & maybe UConn and you're talking about a conference with strong marketing potential

Would the SEC grab any of those remaining from the ACC 9? First they would probably pick from the Big XII - Texas, Oklahoma, and/or Kansas, Then they might go to the ACC for VA Tech and NC State. That would still leave 7 ACC teams. Would they rebuild with eastern schools like UConn & Cincy? Or would they merge with the remnants of a depleted Big XII? Or a little of both? An interested TV network would have a lot to say about what a successor conference might look like.

[adoraz]

If the ACC loses 6 members it could have a negative impact on the Big East. In addition to adding UConn, Cincy, and Memphis they may poach Nova, Georgetown, and less likely SJU (for MSG and an attempt to hold the ACC tournament there). Yes I know football drives the bus but they'd be losing their best basketball schools and I don't see 6 AAC candidates worthy of joining the ACC. It was rumored a few years ago Nova, Georgetown and SJU had interest from the ACC, and if the ACC lost 6 major basketball programs it could happen.

And yes I know there's plenty of reasons why this wouldn't happen but believe it would be a possibility.

[muskienick]

If the ACC loses 6 members it could have a negative impact on the Big East. In addition to adding UConn, Cincy, and Memphis they may poach Nova, Georgetown, and less likely SJU (for MSG and an attempt to hold the ACC tournament there). Yes I know football drives the bus but they'd be losing their best basketball schools and I don't see 6 AAC candidates worthy of joining the ACC. It was rumored a few years ago Nova, Georgetown and SJU had interest from the ACC, and if the ACC lost 6 major basketball programs it could happen.

And yes I know there's plenty of reasons why this wouldn't happen but believe it would be a possibility.

Without the 6 conjectured loses from the ACC, the remaining nine schools would not have the same attraction for Nova, Georgetown and St. John's. Furthermore, those three would be exhibiting an extremely short memory in recreating the situation they (along with four other Basketball-centric schools) left just 3+years ago!

In addition, despite the current smarmy coaching situations at Louisville, I suspect the Cardinals would be "ripe" for the picking by the Big 12 if they ever decide to go to 12 (possibly along with BYU). Heck, even WITH Louisville, that depleted version of the ACC would only have two members (Syracuse and Louisville) who traditionally rank within the top tier of D-1 College Basketball. Nova, G-town and St. John's would do well to stay with 7 other schools that share mutual visions and whose basketball is easily on a par with the remaining members of the ravaged ACC.

[adoraz]

If the ACC loses 6 members it could have a negative impact on the Big East. In addition to adding UConn, Cincy, and Memphis they may poach Nova, Georgetown, and less likely SJU (for MSG and an attempt to hold the ACC tournament there). Yes I know football drives the bus but they'd be losing their best basketball schools and I don't see 6 AAC candidates worthy of joining the ACC. It was rumored a few years ago Nova, Georgetown and SJU had interest from the ACC, and if the ACC lost 6 major basketball programs it could happen.

And yes I know there's plenty of reasons why this wouldn't happen but believe it would be a possibility.

Without the 6 conjectured loses from the ACC, the remaining nine schools would not have the same attraction for Nova, Georgetown and St. John's. Furthermore, those three would be exhibiting an extremely short memory in recreating the situation they (along with four other Basketball-centric schools) left just 3+years ago!

In addition, despite the current smarmy coaching situations at Louisville, I suspect the Cardinals would be "ripe" for the picking by the Big 12 if they ever decide to go to 12 (possibly along with BYU). Heck, even WITH Louisville, that depleted version of the ACC would only have two members (Syracuse and Louisville) who traditionally rank within the top tier of D-1 College Basketball. Nova, G-town and St. John's would do well to stay with 7 other schools that share mutual visions and whose basketball is easily on a par with the remaining members of the ravaged ACC.

Fair points, but all it'd take is Nova or Georgetown agreeing and the other schools would follow. Why would they follow with everything that happened 3 years ago? It's simple, $. ACC would pay a lot more than the current Big East contract. Basketball only schools wouldn't receive as much as the football schools, but ESPN could still pay multiple times what Fox is paying. By doing this ESPN would again blow up the Big East and this time Fox.