Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Xudash]

What makes all this interesting, if not fascinating down the road is what the B1G, SEC and PAC12, in particular, can do to increase their economic value from here. Is this present P5 structure it for a while, or can they still add in a way that makes their respective media partnership deals even more valuable?

It seems that the next move would come from either the B1G or the SEC, assuming one is coming. What moves could be made by either the ACC or BIG 12 at this point that would make financial sense?

[Bill Marsh]

If Boston college were to drop football they would be very high on my list of teams to add. Right up there with uconn, notre dame, and cuse.

They aren't dropping football, so it doesn't matter, but I would add them in a second. They fit the institutional profile very well, and it would give the conference three of the top five catholic schools in the nation (and holy cross de-emphasized sports and notre dame being the other along with gtown and nova).

I also think BC basketball could do well out of the big east. Better sell to recruits, better fit for their program.

One of the 'total realignment' concepts that I've seen posted elsewhere was the creation of a 'private conference' for the likes of Syracuse, BC, Notre Dame, Duke, Miami, Vandy, Wake, Northwestern. One of the problems with it, though, was there weren't really enough teams to flesh it out (unless you really made it a coast-to-coast league with Stanford and BYU, although that would be a very interesting conference).

Now, I promise I haven't been drinking this morning...but what if that conference was us? ND, Duke, Northwestern I think are big enough in research dollars and sports that they can compete with the flagship state schools, and I think Miami has sold their soul for that as well. I know they would never willingly relegate to D1AA, but if they were 'left out', what about creating a D1AA/FCS/whatever the name is these days football conference? It would be centered in the northeast (maybe pick up an associate member from the CAA or Patriot like Fordham or Richmond), with school names that actually mean something to TV eyes in the NE corridor (when I was at Nova, we always joked about how irrelevant the football team was to us...but that was because we were playing the likes of UDelaware and...ummm, I don't remember anyone else they played; Villanova Georgetown? Villanova BC? That may actually get interest).

I love the 10 team round robin as much as anyone, but you have to admit a nice, reasonably geographically compact, "all sports" conference with 14 members would be interesting (or even 13), if those gets were Cuse, BC, Wake, and Vanderbilt. Emphasize the focus on big time basketball and big time undergrad education and alumni contacts, and beginning March under the lights in the Garden.

Ok, I'll put down the crack pipe now.

Actually, that's perfectly good crack you're enjoying there. It's the right thought process: hold at ten. Then, if and until things begin to fracture with football for some of the less well positioned P5 private schools, begin thinking about the right schools among them - the sober ones that aren't in denial - to invite to the Big East.

It should be this simple:

- WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF PERFORMING AT A LEVEL THAT ALLOWS US TO WAIT AND WATCH.

- WE WAIT FOR THE PURPOSE OF SEEING WHETHER OR NOT BETTER, MORE PROVEN BRANDS COME FREE.

- WE DO NOT PULL MID-MAJORS UP FOR ANY REASON. THAT MAKES ZERO SENSE.

Bill, let me make this easy for you. If you plot a 100 mile radius around Cincinnati, you basically "collect" the following basketball programs and fan bases:

Xavier
UC
Ohio State
Kentucky
Indiana
Butler
UL (close enough)
Dayton

I trust you don't require much more in the way of an explanation from here.

Okay. You know way more about Cincy than I do, which is easy because I know nothing on that score. I was just using Dayton as an example because of their recent success and high attendance. I don't want to get hung up on the example.

The general principle remains the same, which is that a new add doesn't have to be a school like St. Louis in a new market. If another school - in one of our existing markets and which sux right now like St L does - emerges with a winning program and strong fan following, that program could be as valuable as a similar program in a new market.

I'm thinking that regional expansion doesn't offer the value to the BE that it does to a conference like the B1G with its own network. Any thoughts on that?

[Xudash]

One of the 'total realignment' concepts that I've seen posted elsewhere was the creation of a 'private conference' for the likes of Syracuse, BC, Notre Dame, Duke, Miami, Vandy, Wake, Northwestern. One of the problems with it, though, was there weren't really enough teams to flesh it out (unless you really made it a coast-to-coast league with Stanford and BYU, although that would be a very interesting conference).

Now, I promise I haven't been drinking this morning...but what if that conference was us? ND, Duke, Northwestern I think are big enough in research dollars and sports that they can compete with the flagship state schools, and I think Miami has sold their soul for that as well. I know they would never willingly relegate to D1AA, but if they were 'left out', what about creating a D1AA/FCS/whatever the name is these days football conference? It would be centered in the northeast (maybe pick up an associate member from the CAA or Patriot like Fordham or Richmond), with school names that actually mean something to TV eyes in the NE corridor (when I was at Nova, we always joked about how irrelevant the football team was to us...but that was because we were playing the likes of UDelaware and...ummm, I don't remember anyone else they played; Villanova Georgetown? Villanova BC? That may actually get interest).

I love the 10 team round robin as much as anyone, but you have to admit a nice, reasonably geographically compact, "all sports" conference with 14 members would be interesting (or even 13), if those gets were Cuse, BC, Wake, and Vanderbilt. Emphasize the focus on big time basketball and big time undergrad education and alumni crontacts, and beginning March under the lights in the Garden.

Ok, I'll put down the crack pipe now.

Actually, that's perfectly good crack you're enjoying there. It's the right thought process: hold at ten. Then, if and until things begin to fracture with football for some of the less well positioned P5 private schools, begin thinking about the right schools among them - the sober ones that aren't in denial - to invite to the Big East.

It should be this simple:

- WE HAVE THE LUXURY OF PERFORMING AT A LEVEL THAT ALLOWS US TO WAIT AND WATCH.

- WE WAIT FOR THE PURPOSE OF SEEING WHETHER OR NOT BETTER, MORE PROVEN BRANDS COME FREE.

- WE DO NOT PULL MID-MAJORS UP FOR ANY REASON. THAT MAKES ZERO SENSE.

Bill, let me make this easy for you. If you plot a 100 mile radius around Cincinnati, you basically "collect" the following basketball programs and fan bases:

Xavier
UC
Ohio State
Kentucky
Indiana
Butler
UL (close enough)
Dayton

I trust you don't require much more in the way of an explanation from here.

Okay. You know way more about Cincy than I do, which is easy because I know nothing on that score. I was just using Dayton as an example because of their recent success and high attendance. I don't want to get hung up on the example.

The general principle remains the same, which is that a new add doesn't have to be a school like St. Louis in a new market. If another school - in one of our existing markets and which sux right now like St L does - emerges with a winning program and strong fan following, that program could be as valuable as a similar program in a new market.

I'm thinking that regional expansion doesn't offer the value to the BE that it does to a conference like the B1G with its own network. Any thoughts on that?

I agree with you completely that the B1G's decisions on expansion have mostly to do with network and peer-institution considerations.

I simply believe the Big East's decision making process when it comes to expansion should be extremely discriminating from here on in. We are so strong at 10 that we truly don't need to worry about this at all. It also means we don't need to wait around for an existing basketball school to get stronger so that we would consider them. What would the national narrative be on a move like that? Why would we do that if we continue to trend as strongly as we are now, which seems reasonable to assume since the national championship was just won by a Big East Member?

Some of these P5 schools may never become available. The present point is this: why would we care, assuming continued success?

[Bill Marsh]

What makes all this interesting, if not fascinating down the road is what the B1G, SEC and PAC12, in particular, can do to increase their economic value from here. Is this present P5 structure it for a while, or can they still add in a way that makes their respective media partnership deals even more valuable?

It seems that the next move would come from either the B1G or the SEC, assuming one is coming. What moves could be made by either the ACC or BIG 12 at this point that would make financial sense?

ACC:

1. The ACC could convince Notre Dame to join the conference as a full member, including football.
2. The ACC could add either Texas or Oklahoma as # 16.

Big XII:

1. Convince Florida State to switch to the Big XII.
2. Fill in the gap between Morgantown and Tallahassee with VA Tech, UNC, and Georgia Tech.

For either of these conferences to improve, they must engage in a death match with the other.

[GoldenWarrior11]

http://www.testudotimes.com/2016/4/10/11399802/b1g-expansion-primer-of-rumors-and-facts

Lots of juicy tidbits:

Most of the current rumors come from twitter.com/bluevodreal a general Michigan insider who seems like he's been better than average talking Michigan football recruits, and basketball staff hires. I've never had him (or her?) as a source on conference realignment before, but he is purporting the rumors that UVA, UNC, G-tech, FSU, Duke, and Notre Dame to the B1G is a done deal with a timeline of this summer. He's certainly not the first to make those rumors, just the latest. Everything I have ever read suggests that the B1G would happily take all of those schools except FSU and possibly Duke. The rumored payout number is supposedly triple the current payouts, that puts it firmly the range of 70-90 million per school. Which, I can't fathom as being true, but that's what it is.

Except FSU, all of the mentioned schools instantly meet the requirements to join the B1G. But here are the sticking points for me. How much sense does it make to take both UNC and Duke? Do they both add enough TV eyeballs to make adding both schools financially worth it? But if a bloc of ACC schools leave, the GoR and the exit fees become negligible as the conference is basically dissolved with its core leaving. Yes Duke Basketball is a big deal, but that doesn't matter as much as it should. The best way to illustrate this point: Kentucky football makes more money for the school than Kentucky Basketball.

Does the B1G really stomach FSU's non-AAU status, relatively sub-par academics, and being the second tier school in their own state? If FSU doesn't get into the B1G, it's because the B1G didn't invite them, not that they turned down the B1G. Recall FSU was the only other school besides Maryland to vote against raising the exist fee to triple the conferences operating budget. FSU wants out of the ACC in a bad way.


UCONN

The huskies experience of conference realignment has been an exercise in watching a school be slowly quartered and drawn. They were in the Big East when it was a power conference, but the ACC saw to it that the Big East wouldn't be relevant in football. There are rumors that UConn is being punished by schools in the power 5 because they dislike UConn's dominance in Basketball. Let's put that rumor to rest, it's completely UNTRUE. The fact is that UConn isn't in a large media market and despite its proximity to New York, it just doesn't register there, making the addition of UConn unlikely to boost the per school payout of a power 5 conference

University of Cincinnati

Similar to UConn, the people at UC constantly campaign for a power 5 invite, they have a chance of getting invited to the Big12, selling themselves as a travel partner for West Virginia, and constant promises to invest in their athletic facilities. They'll never be a B1G school, they're in Ohio, and Ohio State is the only school you want from Ohio. Outside shot at the SEC, but I'll never give that rumor any credence until I see the NCState and V-Tech in the SEC first.

[Jet915]

What makes all this interesting, if not fascinating down the road is what the B1G, SEC and PAC12, in particular, can do to increase their economic value from here. Is this present P5 structure it for a while, or can they still add in a way that makes their respective media partnership deals even more valuable?

It seems that the next move would come from either the B1G or the SEC, assuming one is coming. What moves could be made by either the ACC or BIG 12 at this point that would make financial sense?

If any P5 was to fall, it's the Big XII. Other than Texas and to a lesser extent, Oklahoma, none of the other schools register much nationally (compared to other P5 schools) and the majority of these schools are in small markets and small cities.

[gtmoBlue]

Interesting read - albeit vicious rumors...lol.
If such a move was executed by the B1G it would trigger "open season" on the poor ACC. Six teams (likely 4) to the B1G and 2 each to the SEC and Big12. If this were to occur, the BE can easily pick 2-4 of the leftovers (private school leftovers).
But enough on that...for now.

Bill. The conference network experience is not going well in the SEC or Texas. Reports say the SEC version is marginal and the Texas version is losing money. ESPN is hoping to turn the Texas network into a conference one. The ACC network never got started by ESPN due to the money issues at the WWL. Lost ACC paychecks are one reason for the rumor mill above. They are falling behind in the money chase.

The BE can and should go "all-in" with its' BEDN. Form partnerships with the primary online streaming video platforms, saturate Fox's online platforms, and generate BEDN specialty programming - both BE related and special interests - Boys/Girls Clubs, Special Olympics, etc., both in the BE region and nationally. The Big East can grow the BEDN into a $500 million to $1B business enterprise. Additionally the BE can grow its' conference media rights (2nd/3rd tiers). When done properly - non-television media rights can grow to a $200-300 million deal over 10-12 years.

XuDash. Any move(s) by the football five affect all of Division 1. We're such a scenario play out the B1G would suck all the air out of the room. The SEC/Big12 would be forced into action to protect themselves. Although designed for football, such moves will greatly alter the basketball landscape as well. Imagine the B1G with 12-15 NCAA tournament bids- wow.

We should care due to our having prepared contingency planning. We should care as we know how it is to be castoff and disregarded by ff realignment and change. We should care because as with change also comes Opportunity- for us to grow, prosper, and as JPSchmack always says: "to get better!"

The BE cannot afford to ignore the sports landscape around us. We cannot stand pat, nor get cocky due to a little success. We cannot afford to turn our heads or bury our heads in the sand - "well it's not our problem". The best course is to be proactive. We can make contingency plans, we can offer advice and communicate our experiences, we can be a good resource for teams who ask our advice. We can evaluate and prioritize potential candidates based on "realignment gaming scenarios". We can be ready to strike when the sh_t hits the fan!

Ahh yes, exciting times. The smell of napalm and carnage in the air. What a wonderful world...

gtmoBlue

[Bill Marsh]

http://www.testudotimes.com/2016/4/10/11399802/b1g-expansion-primer-of-rumors-and-facts

Lots of juicy tidbits:

Most of the current rumors come from twitter.com/bluevodreal a general Michigan insider who seems like he's been better than average talking Michigan football recruits, and basketball staff hires. I've never had him (or her?) as a source on conference realignment before, but he is purporting the rumors that UVA, UNC, G-tech, FSU, Duke, and Notre Dame to the B1G is a done deal with a timeline of this summer. He's certainly not the first to make those rumors, just the latest. Everything I have ever read suggests that the B1G would happily take all of those schools except FSU and possibly Duke. The rumored payout number is supposedly triple the current payouts, that puts it firmly the range of 70-90 million per school. Which, I can't fathom as being true, but that's what it is.

Except FSU, all of the mentioned schools instantly meet the requirements to join the B1G. But here are the sticking points for me. How much sense does it make to take both UNC and Duke? Do they both add enough TV eyeballs to make adding both schools financially worth it? But if a bloc of ACC schools leave, the GoR and the exit fees become negligible as the conference is basically dissolved with its core leaving. Yes Duke Basketball is a big deal, but that doesn't matter as much as it should. The best way to illustrate this point: Kentucky football makes more money for the school than Kentucky Basketball.

Does the B1G really stomach FSU's non-AAU status, relatively sub-par academics, and being the second tier school in their own state? If FSU doesn't get into the B1G, it's because the B1G didn't invite them, not that they turned down the B1G. Recall FSU was the only other school besides Maryland to vote against raising the exist fee to triple the conferences operating budget. FSU wants out of the ACC in a bad way.


UCONN

The huskies experience of conference realignment has been an exercise in watching a school be slowly quartered and drawn. They were in the Big East when it was a power conference, but the ACC saw to it that the Big East wouldn't be relevant in football. There are rumors that UConn is being punished by schools in the power 5 because they dislike UConn's dominance in Basketball. Let's put that rumor to rest, it's completely UNTRUE. The fact is that UConn isn't in a large media market and despite its proximity to New York, it just doesn't register there, making the addition of UConn unlikely to boost the per school payout of a power 5 conference

University of Cincinnati

Similar to UConn, the people at UC constantly campaign for a power 5 invite, they have a chance of getting invited to the Big12, selling themselves as a travel partner for West Virginia, and constant promises to invest in their athletic facilities. They'll never be a B1G school, they're in Ohio, and Ohio State is the only school you want from Ohio. Outside shot at the SEC, but I'll never give that rumor any credence until I see the NCState and V-Tech in the SEC first.

Before we get carried away with this latest rumor, let me just note a couple of relevant points:

1. Notre Dame is contractually obligated to join the ACC for football through 2027 if it drops independence. I don't know what "out" clauses there may be or what it would take to dissolve the ACC, but the ND contract with the ACC is a significant hurdle to overcome before anyone starts talking ND to the B1G.

2. Remember that the hot rumor just 6-9 months ago was Oklahoma to the B1G. Now we have the B1G going in a completely opposite direction? The situation still seems pretty fluid to me.

3.One thing about Oklahoma seems clear to me. They want out of the Big XII. In the past, the obstacle to them joining another conference was in-state politics that linked them to OK State. Since then, we've seen Texas A&M split from the other Texas schools and go off on their own. We've seen the creation of the college football playoff system, which is likely to expand to 8 teams soon, completely change the landscape. Oklahoma is in a very strong position to sell the politicians on the idea that holding them back will kill OU football as a national brand and that the state will be left with 2 mediocre programs. Better to have one excellent program than none. Oklahoma could be the domino that sees the Big XII unravel. The SEC would take OU without OSU in a heartbeat. So would the PAC-12. That opens up all kinds of possibilities. Kansas as a partner? What does Texas do?

4. The idea that UConn is a small market is nonsense. It's not a big market, but it's not small. I don't know what anyone thinks the UConn market is, but it's not just Hartford. UConn sports command statewide attention in a state with a population of about 3.7 million. That's a population comparable to Oklahoma and a little bigger than Iowa or Kansas. Unlike those states, UConn doesn't share its market with another in-state major college program. Nor does it share its market with in-state pro sports although out-of-state pro sports get a lot of attention just as they do in those other 3 states - actually in-state for the NBA in OK. Finally, it's true that UConn is not a player in the NYC market. But neither is any other local college program. Any conference that wants to get into that market has to do so with a team approach using multiple programs. UConn could certainly be a useful piece in such an effort - especially for the B1G, which could surround the hole in the NYC doughnut with Rutgers and UConn as bookends - especially if they schedule games in Yankee Stadium and the Meadowlands. Combine that with Penn State, which draws a lot of interest in NYC, as well as other B1G alums in the City, and they have a multi-faceted approach to capturing interest in metro NY where they already have an office.

[_lh]

The Big XII is obviously the weakest P5 conference as far as possible raiding goes. I can see Texas bolting if the Big XII expands to 12 and takes two AAC teams. If they go (doesn't matter where, any other P5 conference would take them) the Big XII is in Big trouble. The other 11 schools have to realize this and I think that is why they can't pull the trigger on expanding past 10. So, that leaves Oklahoma who seems to want expansion having to decide to possibly leave and blowing up the conference. There is no addition that equals Oklahoma if Oklahoma leaves. Texas would leave then too. The Big XII is a hot mess with no great expansion candidates and current members all worried about what the two powers might do long term.

I hate conferences larger than 12 teams for a variety of reasons. Maryland and Nebraska in the Big 10 disgusts me. Pittsburgh and Louisville in the ACC is also not natural. I hope the Big XII stays as is for as long as it can or somehow convince BYU and ND to join as the 11th and 12th members to solidify itself.

[Xudash]

Interesting read - albeit vicious rumors...lol.
If such a move was executed by the B1G it would trigger "open season" on the poor ACC. Six teams (likely 4) to the B1G and 2 each to the SEC and Big12. If this were to occur, the BE can easily pick 2-4 of the leftovers (private school leftovers).
But enough on that...for now.

Bill. The conference network experience is not going well in the SEC or Texas. Reports say the SEC version is marginal and the Texas version is losing money. ESPN is hoping to turn the Texas network into a conference one. The ACC network never got started by ESPN due to the money issues at the WWL. Lost ACC paychecks are one reason for the rumor mill above. They are falling behind in the money chase.

The BE can and should go "all-in" with its' BEDN. Form partnerships with the primary online streaming video platforms, saturate Fox's online platforms, and generate BEDN specialty programming - both BE related and special interests - Boys/Girls Clubs, Special Olympics, etc., both in the BE region and nationally. The Big East can grow the BEDN into a $500 million to $1B business enterprise. Additionally the BE can grow its' conference media rights (2nd/3rd tiers). When done properly - non-television media rights can grow to a $200-300 million deal over 10-12 years.

XuDash. Any move(s) by the football five affect all of Division 1. We're such a scenario play out the B1G would suck all the air out of the room. The SEC/Big12 would be forced into action to protect themselves. Although designed for football, such moves will greatly alter the basketball landscape as well. Imagine the B1G with 12-15 NCAA tournament bids- wow.

We should care due to our having prepared contingency planning. We should care as we know how it is to be castoff and disregarded by ff realignment and change. We should care because as with change also comes Opportunity- for us to grow, prosper, and as JPSchmack always says: "to get better!"

The BE cannot afford to ignore the sports landscape around us. We cannot stand pat, nor get cocky due to a little success. We cannot afford to turn our heads or bury our heads in the sand - "well it's not our problem". The best course is to be proactive. We can make contingency plans, we can offer advice and communicate our experiences, we can be a good resource for teams who ask our advice. We can evaluate and prioritize potential candidates based on "realignment gaming scenarios". We can be ready to strike when the sh_t hits the fan!

Ahh yes, exciting times. The smell of napalm and carnage in the air. What a wonderful world...

gtmoBlue

gtmo,

Your comments are very fair and spot on. I completely agree with you that we have to care about and that we have to watch what happens with all the P5 maneuverings and machinations. I agree that we can't simply stand pat and that we don't want to become cocky due to any amount of success. I agree that it is best to be pro-active, and I totally agree about pursuing a comprehensive digital strategy.

Perhaps I was a little too severe in how I phrased my comments above. The point I was attempting to make is that we appear to have time, due to the success we've accumulated to-date to build the 10 member brand while we watch what happens from here. We simply need to be very careful about fixing something that appears to be getting stronger and appears to be a long way from being broken.

We certainly don't need to bother with basketball-only schools now and for the foreseeable future.

Part of what you're talking about is remaining calm in the face of bellwether change. If Pandora's box does open, opening the opportunity to invite previously unavailable schools, let's hope that we take a serious, calm look at our options and make the right decisions from there. Frankly, I believe we will, because I believe the BE Administration and the Presidents, coupled with input from our media partner will make the right decisions.

I have to note that it is going to be a fascinating spectacle if some of those rumors are true - if the B1G and the SEC, in particular, set into motion events that lead to the destruction of the ACC and/or Big XII as we know them to exist today.