RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[billyjack]

Congratulations to DePaul on an exciting OT win over St. John's.

St. John's, despite their 0-3 record, is in excellent shape:
They could go 8-10, and 1-1 in the BET, and their RPI would be at 43...!

To get to 8-10, they would need:
2 wins each vs DePaul, Creighton and Marquette, plus
2 home wins out of these 3 opponents --> Xavier, PC, and Seton Hall.
Anything beyond that is gravy, like stealing a road win at Butler, Georgetown, XU or Providence.
BET would just be: W vs DePaul, L vs Villanova.

This gets them a 43 rpi and an NCAA bid.

Big East Standings

St. John's has now lost 4 of their last 5 games, and quite possibly their chance for an NCAA 'at-large' invitation.

The road to 8 BE wins still is in place for St John's according to my list that you replied to, because SJU stole a road win at Providence. The DePaul loss yesterday was bad, but the win at 23-RPI PC will get more notice.

SJU:
- has an RPI of 40,
- 14 regular season games left.
- 9 of those games are vs teams with RPI's of 34 or better...
plus OOC wins vs Syracuse, Minnesota, St Mary's... and even Long Beach is Top-75...
and their blowout of RPI-129 Tulane would be some bubble teams' best OOC wins.

In comparison... looking at 2 probable bubble teams...

Tulsa:
- has an RPI of 42
- their final 14 games are:
- 5 vs teams w RPI's at 200 or worse...
- 2 vs RPI-129...
- only 3 vs top-50 RPI teams...
- and their best OOC was vs RPI-114.

Davidson has an RPI of 51
- and 13 games left.
- Of the 13, only two are vs the RPI Top-40...
- and 7 are vs RPI-164 or worse...
- and their best OOC win was vs RPI-137 Charlotte.

So, the SJU road loss yesterday was bad, but doesn't destroy the season.

[stever20]

If they lose to St Johns, and go 8-10 in conference, they are 18-12. That enters the BET with a RPI of 56.7. They would need to win the 7/10 game and beat the #2 seed to have any shot of getting in the tourney.

Also let's look at Tulsa and Davidson.

Tulsa- If they go 8-5 in those final 13 games, their final RPI would be 48.8. They would be either the 2 or 3 seed. All they would need would be a 1st rd win vs either Temple or Tulane to make the tourney.
Davidson- if they go what projected 10-3 in their final 13 games, their final RPI would be 35. They would be the 3 seed. A win vs Richmond would lock up a bid....

A RPI of 35 in Davidson's case isn't even close to bubble.

St John's just couldn't afford a loss like yesterday. They really need 9 conference wins, and now to do that they would have to go 8-6 the rest of the way to get on the bubble.. Yeah 5 vs Creighton, Marquette, and DePaul- but then going 3-6 vs the others- to just get on the bubble- isn't easy. Yesterday just eliminated a lot of the margin of error.

[robinreed]

BRACKETOLOGY

Big East Conference (4.9 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 6 Villanova (17-1) 27-4 100% 47% 53% 2.2 95% 34%
7 25 Butler (13-6) 21-10 89% 15% 74% 7.1 16% 0%
7 28 Xavier (12-6) 20-11 75% 11% 63% 7.0 15% 0%
9 33 Providence (14-5) 20-11 67% 6% 61% 7.4 10% 0%
10 40 Georgetown (12-5) 18-11 67% 9% 59% 9.0 3% 0%
11 43 Seton Hall (13-4) 20-10 59% 5% 54% 8.9 4% 0%
St Johns (12-5) 19-12 30% 4% 26% 9.0 1% 0%
Creighton (9-10) 13-18 1% 1% 0% 13.3 0% 0%
Marquette (10-7) 15-15 5% 2% 3% 10.5 0% 0%
DePaul (10-9) 12-19 0% 0% 0% 13.4 0% 0%

[robinreed]

REAL TIME RPI

Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 2 Conf. SOS Rank: 1

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Last updated - Mon Jan 19 13:50:09 PST 2015
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
5 Villanova 4-1 17-1 0.6726 30 0.5769
Up 10 From Last WeekUp 10 From Last Week 14 Butler 3-3 13-6 0.6248 8 0.6068
Down 5 From Last Week 17 Seton Hall 3-2 13-4 0.6211 40 0.5721
Down 8 From Last Week 23 Providence 4-2 14-5 0.6164 18 0.5855
Up 12 From Last WeekUp 12 From Last Week 28 Georgetown 4-2 12-5 0.6113 10 0.5961
Up 7 From Last Week 34 Xavier 3-3 12-6 0.6045 16 0.5872
Up 3 From Last Week 40 St. John's 1-4 11-5 0.5937 17 0.5869
Up 5 From Last Week 114 Marquette 2-3 10-7 0.5371 79 0.5417
Down 17 From Last WeekDown 17 From Last Week 150 Creighton 0-6 9-10 0.5118 71 0.5467
Up 7 From Last Week 167 DePaul 4-2 10-9 0.5030 120 0.5181

[gmoser1210]

Based on the games tonight, our RPIs changed as follows:

VCU: stayed at #5
Butler: fell from #14 to #17
Seton Hall: fell from #17 to #21
Providence: rose from #23 to #22
Georgetown: rose from #28 to #16
Xavier: stayed at #34
Saint John's: stayed at #40
Marquette: rose from #112 to #111
Creighton: stayed at #151
DePaul: rose from #169 to #167

[Bill Marsh]

If they lose to St Johns, and go 8-10 in conference, they are 18-12. That enters the BET with a RPI of 56.7. They would need to win the 7/10 game and beat the #2 seed to have any shot of getting in the tourney.

Also let's look at Tulsa and Davidson.

Tulsa- If they go 8-5 in those final 13 games, their final RPI would be 48.8. They would be either the 2 or 3 seed. All they would need would be a 1st rd win vs either Temple or Tulane to make the tourney.
Davidson- if they go what projected 10-3 in their final 13 games, their final RPI would be 35. They would be the 3 seed. A win vs Richmond would lock up a bid....

A RPI of 35 in Davidson's case isn't even close to bubble.

St John's just couldn't afford a loss like yesterday. They really need 9 conference wins, and now to do that they would have to go 8-6 the rest of the way to get on the bubble.. Yeah 5 vs Creighton, Marquette, and DePaul- but then going 3-6 vs the others- to just get on the bubble- isn't easy. Yesterday just eliminated a lot of the margin of error.

Steve, why does St. John's "need" 9 conference wins?

You consistently misuse RPI Forecast. In your first paragraph, you refer to an unnamed team who might lose to St. John's and then claim they will have an RPI of 56.7. No one will have an RPI of 56.7. Those numbers are simply the midpoint for a range do statistical possibilities.

Let's take St. John's as an example. On RPI Forecast today, the Projected RPI is 54.5, but only 48 teams have a better projected RPI than that. So, which is it? 49 or 54-55? It doesn't matter. It's just a statistical projection to show where things are right now. Unfortunately, you keep using it as though it's a prediction. It isn't.

Then you persist in taking this stuff out of context and treating Big East teams in isolation. They're not. They're in competition. So, what other teams do matters a lot to the final outcome. You ignore that at your own risk, with the result being that you make ridiculous statements like "St.. John's needs 9 wins." Or "Tulsa only needs a first round win vs Temple or Tulane." Neither is true at this point. As we saw last year with SMU, Tulsa is the one with no margin for error because of the weakness in their conference SOS. St. John's is bolstered by their strong OOC play and by the overall strength of the BE.

As for the rest, we'll have to wait and see.

[robinreed]

Big East Conference
Expected RPI: 2
Current RPI: 2
Current OOC Record: 92-29 (0.7603)
Expected OOC Record: 93-30 (0.7561)
Expected OOC RPI: 2
Expected OOC SOS: 3

RPI
10.2 Villanova 0.6360 0.5628 40 17-2 26-5 4-2 13-5 3-2 5-2 5-1 9-1 4-0 13-0 8 102 5
28.0 Georgetown 0.6011 0.5908 6 13-5 19-10 5-3 11-8 2-5 4-3 2-1 7-1 3-0 8-2 25 18 16
29.3 Xavier 0.5996 0.5831 12 12-6 20-11 3-3 11-7 2-3 4-3 5-2 7-3 2-0 9-4 30 31 34
31.4 Butler 0.5961 0.5672 34 13-6 21-10 4-3 12-7 3-4 4-3 2-2 8-1 4-0 9-3 68 143 17
33.8 Seton Hall 0.5934 0.5654 37 13-4 20-10 3-2 10-8 2-4 3-4 3-1 8-1 4-0 10-2 21 115 21
37.5 Providence 0.5888 0.5795 15 14-5 20-11 4-2 10-8 2-4 4-2 4-1 7-2 3-1 10-3 29 45 22
54.5 St. John's 0.5716 0.5755 20 11-5 18-12 1-4 8-10 2-6 3-3 4-1 5-2 5-0 10-2 33 56 39
112.6 Marquette 0.5318 0.5666 36 10-7 15-15 2-3 7-11 1-6 2-5 2-1 5-2 4-1 8-4 132 136 111
162.5 Creighton 0.5042 0.5582 49 9-10 12-19 0-6 3-15 1-5 1-7 2-4 4-2 4-1 9-4 115 186 151
181.8 DePaul 0.4937 0.5408 83 10-9 12-19 4-2 6-12 1-5 2-5 1-4 3-3 5-2 6-7 284 313 168

[robinreed]

RPI FORECAST
Big East Conference
Expected RPI: 2
Current RPI: 2
Current OOC Record: 92-29 (0.7603)
Expected OOC Record: 93-30 (0.7561)
Expected OOC RPI: 2
Expected OOC SOS: 3
RPI
9.8 Villanova 0.6378 0.5653 37 17-2 26-5 4-2 13-5 3-2 5-2 5-1 9-1 4-0 13-0 8 87 5
28.2 Georgetown 0.6012 0.5908 6 13-5 19-10 5-3 11-8 2-5 4-3 3-1 7-1 3-0 8-2 26 17 16
29.8 Xavier 0.5991 0.5825 13 12-6 20-11 3-3 11-7 2-3 4-3 5-2 7-3 2-0 9-4 33 32 35
31.1 Butler 0.5962 0.5680 34 14-6 21-10 5-3 12-7 3-4 4-3 2-2 8-1 4-0 9-3 66 141 18
34.6 Seton Hall 0.5925 0.5647 39 13-4 20-10 3-2 10-8 2-4 3-4 3-1 8-1 4-0 10-2 23 126 20
37.7 Providence 0.5881 0.5788 16 14-5 20-11 4-2 10-8 2-4 4-2 4-1 7-2 3-1 10-3 34 46 26
53.9 St. John's 0.5722 0.5750 20 12-5 18-12 2-4 8-10 2-6 3-3 4-1 5-2 5-0 10-2 35 57 40
112.6 Marquette 0.5314 0.5677 35 10-8 14-16 2-4 6-12 1-6 2-5 2-1 5-2 4-1 8-4 129 128 107
159.5 Creighton 0.5056 0.5593 48 9-11 12-19 0-7 3-15 1-5 1-7 2-3 4-2 4-1 9-4 109 177 153
176.7 DePaul 0.4964 0.5437 76 10-9 12-19 4-2 6-12 1-5 2-5 1-4 3-3 5-2 6-7 281 304 158

REAL TIME RPI
Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 2 Conf. SOS Rank: 1

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Last updated - Thu Jan 22 12:17:31 PST 2015
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
5 Villanova 4-2 17-2 0.6713 14 0.5877
Up 11 From Last WeekUp 11 From Last Week 17 Georgetown 5-2 13-5 0.6246 5 0.6091
Down 4 From Last Week 18 Butler 4-3 14-6 0.6229 10 0.6004
Down 3 From Last Week 20 Seton Hall 3-2 13-4 0.6183 42 0.5683
Down 2 From Last Week 25 Providence 4-2 14-5 0.6138 23 0.5821
34 Xavier 3-3 12-6 0.6018 18 0.5837
40 St. John's 2-4 12-5 0.5949 21 0.5832
Up 3 From Last Week 111 Marquette 2-4 10-8 0.5369 68 0.5492
150 Creighton 0-7 9-11 0.5119 66 0.5516
Up 8 From Last Week 159 DePaul 4-2 10-9 0.5058 110 0.5218

ESPN RPI

2014-15 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (5) Villanova .6746 17-2 22 2 63 13 33 2-2 2-0 5-0 10-2 14 10.8 7.4 18.2
2 (17) Georgetown .6285 13-5 6 60 13 18 52 2-4 1-1 2-0 9-3 22 7.1 6.2 13.3
3 (18) Butler .6237 14-6 11 20 85 22 20 3-3 2-3 0-0 7-5 15 4.1 9.9 14.0
4 (19) Seton Hall .6226 13-4 51 16 115 36 34 1-3 2-1 1-0 8-4 56 5.8 6.4 12.2
5 (25) Providence .6156 14-5 33 55 32 52 91 2-1 1-1 4-1 8-4 26 5.0 6.8 11.8
6 (32) St. John's .6072 12-5 25 15 76 80 35 1-4 0-0 4-0 8-4 20 4.1 8.6 12.8
7 (33) Xavier .6063 12-6 26 27 84 44 29 2-2 1-0 2-2 7-5 88 13.1 1.0 14.1
8 (96) Marquette .5444 10-8 71 87 125 111 75 1-2 1-3 1-1 7-5 61 1.8 6.9 8.7
9 (140) Creighton .5163 9-11 70 59 163 190 62 0-5 1-2 2-2 3-9 117 2.8 3.4 6.2
10 (151) DePaul .5102 10-9 153 96 305 32 42 1-2 2-1 1-2 4-8 169 8.0 -4.9 3.1

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RPI

Rank Conference Rating Top Team Last
Conference Rating Top Team Last
1 Big East 0.574 Georgetown (13-5) 1
2 Big 12 0.565 Kansas (15-3) 2
3 SEC 0.563 Kentucky (18-0) 3
4 ACC 0.560 NC State (13-7) 4
5 Big Ten 0.556 Michigan St (13-6) 5
6 Pac-12 0.552 Utah (15-3) 6
7 Atlantic 10 0.541 VCU (15-3) 7
8 American 0.534 Cincinnati (13-5) 8
9 WCC 0.525 BYU (15-6) 9
10 MVC 0.520 Wichita St (17-2) 10
11 Mountain West 0.506 UNLV (10-9) 11
12 Big West 0.506 Lg Beach St (9-11) 12
13 Horizon League 0.503 Oakland (8-12) 13
14 CUSA 0.491 Charlotte (8-9) 14
15 MAC 0.490 Ball State (7-9) 15
16 Patriot 0.485 Holy Cross (7-10) 16
17 Ivy 0.480 Harvard (11-4) 17
18 CAA 0.475 Col Charlestn (6-14) 18
19 Northeast 0.473 Mt St Marys (8-10) 19
20 MAAC 0.469 Niagara (3-14) 20Rank Conference Rating Top Team Last

[robinreed]

ESPN RPI

2014-15 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (5) Villanova .6727 17-2 24 2 64 14 37 2-1 2-1 4-0 10-2 15 10.9 7.3 18.2
2 (15) Georgetown .6307 13-5 5 58 11 16 50 2-4 1-1 2-0 9-3 22 7.2 6.1 13.3
3 (19) Butler .6225 14-6 13 22 82 25 26 2-3 3-3 1-0 7-5 14 4.1 9.9 14.0
4 (20) Providence .6220 15-5 26 53 25 42 82 2-1 3-1 4-1 9-3 24 5.1 6.5 11.6
5 (33) St. John's .6040 12-5 33 13 91 82 32 1-3 0-1 5-0 8-4 19 4.1 8.5 12.6
6 (35) Seton Hall .6004 13-5 58 21 123 74 56 1-3 2-1 1-0 7-5 67 5.2 6.2 11.5
7 (37) Xavier .5997 12-7 25 26 93 62 30 1-3 2-0 3-2 7-5 87 12.4 0.9 13.4
8 (97) Marquette .5450 10-8 72 87 125 116 74 1-2 1-3 1-1 7-5 64 1.9 6.7 8.7
9 (123) DePaul .5244 11-9 140 95 313 18 36 0-2 4-1 1-2 5-7 142 7.5 -4.3 3.2
10 (139) Creighton .5171 9-11 73 57 166 196 58 0-4 1-2 2-3 3-9 110 2.8 3.3 6.1

[robinreed]

BRACKETOLOGY - BIG EAST

5 BIDS PREDICTED

Big East Conference (5.0 Projected Bids)
Projected Seed Current Record & Projected Finish NCAA Tournament Bid Odds Seed Projection Detail
Seed S-Curve Team Proj W/L Bid Auto Bid At Large Bid Avg Seed 1-4 Seed 1 Seed
2 7 Villanova (17-2) 26-5 100% 42% 58% 2.7 90% 18%
6 24 Providence (15-5) 20-11 80% 7% 73% 6.8 17% 0%
7 26 Butler (14-6) 21-10 90% 15% 75% 7.5 13% 0%
7 25 Georgetown (13-5) 19-10 89% 13% 76% 7.5 12% 0%
8 32 Xavier (12-7) 19-12 70% 11% 58% 7.3 12% 0%
St Johns (13-5) 19-12 32% 4% 27% 9.1 1% 0%
Seton Hall (13-5) 18-12 34% 4% 30% 9.4 1% 0%
Creighton (9-11) 13-18 1% 1% 0% 13.8 0% 0%
Marquette (10-8) 15-15 6% 2% 3% 10.4 0% 0%
DePaul (11-9) 13-18 0% 0% 0% 12.3 0% 0%