Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[GoldenWarrior11]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25139160/big-12-acc-conference-championship-game-restrictions-to-be-relaxed-by-2016

Dennis Dodd reporting that NCAA Conference Championship game restrictions to be "relaxed" by 2016. This would mean that the Big 12 would not need 12 members to hold a conference title game, and that conferences (ACC, B1G, PAC-12, SEC) would not need divisions to determine two best teams facing off against each other. Conferences would be able to determine who gets to play in their title game based on overall records, not divisional records.

In a nutshell, the Big 12 does not need two more teams to get a championship game - meaning they will not need to poach schools from the MWC, AAC or any other conference.

Realignment, from a football perspective, looks to be frozen in place for the foreseeable future.

[Bill Marsh]

XU Dash, I know you're a smart guy and a knowledgable college basketball fan, but I'm not following your line of reasoning on this Dayton thing. Let's compare them with Creighton's credentials at the time they were considered to evaluate their resume.

Dayton (2000-15) - 6 tournament appearances
Creighton (1998-2013) - 9 tournament appearances

Advantage: Creighton although not overwhelming.

Dayton (2000-15) - 6 tournament wins, including an Elite 8
Creighton (1998-2013) - 4 tournament wins never making it out of the first weekend

Advantage: Dayton and to me the Elite 8 and the fact that their shining moments have come in their most recent and therefore most relevant appearances makes it a pretty significant advantage. Add to that the fact that Creighton had more opportunities to get wins and didn't. Add to that the fact that Dayton has had wins over big programs under 2 different coaches - West Virginia, Ohio State, Syracuse, Stanford, Providence. Those are big wins.

Dayton (1980-99) - 3 tournament appearances with 4 wins, 1 Elite 8
Creighton (1979-98) - 3 tournament. Appearances with 1 win

Advantage: Dayton. I began by looking at what Dayton has done since 2000, which created a 16 year time frame in which to view each program. When we look at the extended history of the 2 programs, going back 20 years in each case prior to their earliest tournament appearance in this 16 year window, both had fallen on hard times with just 3 tournament appearances by each. But even in a down cycle, Dayton had won more games and had gone to an Elite 8.

Although I understand your point about Dayton fans being obnoxious and overrating their program (I personally have no idea about this), I fail to see how their resume is worse than Creighton's in any significant way. In some ways, it is better. Certainly their success in the 1960's (NIT title, Final 4) combined with their more recent Elite 8's (2 in the last 30 years) makes them a more historic program. Whatever failures they have made in coaching hires is now history. The presidents and administrators responsible for those are probably long gone. Correct me if I'm wrong. But there most recent hire was a home run, which is encouraging.

Frankly the credentials of the 2 programs as candidates are very similar. It's their ability to draw big crowds to home games that is their biggest credential. Creighton is better at this, but Dayton is consistently a top 25 program in this category, which makes them exceptional in their own right. Both the Wall Street Journal and Forbes have separately ranked Dayton as one of the 25 most valuable college basketball programs in the country. That's a big deal. Financial health goes a long way toward insuring future athletic success. Dayton may not right now be a destination job, but membership in the Big East could help to change that. Even if it never changes, however, they wouldn't be unique in that regard among Big
East schools. How many jobs are there really that are immune from a coach leaving for greener pastures? Roy Williams left Kansas for North Carolina. Bill Self left Illinois for Kansas. Rick Pitino left Kentucky for the Celtics. It's the nature of the business.

I don't see how having a 2nd team in southwestern Ohio can hurt. Doubling interest in all Big East games can only help fight off the competition from Cincinnati, Ohio State, Kentucky, etc. There are plenty of examples of programs in the same market enhancing a conference's profile rather than hurting it. Begin with the 3 ACC in North Carolina's 16 mile research triangle around Raleigh. The Big East had noth BC and Providence in the Boston/Providence market of southeastern New England, a very similar situation to Cincinnati/Dayton. St. John's and Seton Hall currently share the NY/NJ market. I get the hate for Dayton, but frankly hate is the basis for almost all of the best rivalries.

[marquette]

An interesting question to explore is how frustrated UConn becomes with the American conference. The only regional, albeit completely lacking in history, "rivalry" is Temple. Aside from the Owls, the only other highly recognizable brand name teams in the league are Cincinnati and Memphis. To look at it optimistically, yes, the league does have some coaches who, in time, could help their teams make some noise and go to the NCAA tournament (Haith at Tulsa, Brown at SMU, Sampson at Houston, maybe even Lebo at ECU). Will UConn fans still be excited to see their Huskies play those teams?

A bigger question is this: What happens if the American loses one or two teams to the Big 12, not including UConn, and no one else picks up UConn, either? Imagine the Big 12 taking Cincinnati and Memphis or UCF. Does UConn still opt to stick it out with an even further watered-down conference? In other words, at what point does UConn start looking at alternatives (provided that the B1G and ACC aren't alternatives)? What's the straw that breaks the camel's back?

Would UConn explore independence for football if the AAC lost two more members? I can imagine that FS1 would be willing to at least match what UConn is making in the AAC for their football program's home games (which would be around $2 million/year) just so the 4-time national champion UConn hoops program could be in the Big East. Heck, Fox might be willing to pay much more than that.

Would sticking football in the MAC be too much of a setback to the football program to be acceptable? What about something creative, like football-only membership in the MWC, allowing those schools east coast exposure and a deal where 2-4 schools get to play UConn in hoops every year? Honestly, there wouldn't be all that significant of a step down in football competition from the AAC to the MWC, and the Big East would not only give them more money, they'd help salvage some of what was lost in their premier sport.

Anyway, I know this seems far fetched. But there has to be a point where UConn has had enough of a league where everyone is leaving, everything is spread out, and there is no history or regional rivalry.

Honestly, I think holding out for an all-time gem like UConn would be much more worthwhile than expanding almost for expansion's sake with someone like St. Bonaventure or even Dayton or Saint Louis. The league is in very good shape financially and in stability. It could go without expansion and be just fine without threat of being raided, and it could continue getting 5+ teams (50% or more) into the tournament with or without adding new teams, plus it could continue to enjoy the double round robin format, for years to come.

Everybody wants UConn. It is worth holding out, just don't hold your breath. UConn is probably going to hang onto their football dreams for quite a while considering how much money they have sunk into their football program. However, if we decide to expand and ditch the round robin format, then there's no reason to stop permanently at 12. We could grab a couple schools and then wait for UConn to become available, then get UConn and VCU (hey once you cross the Rubicon you might as well go all the way).

Independence is probably not so bad of an option for UConn. BYU, Army, and UMass should all have some availability for playing. It might be a little tough scheduling during conference play, which would certainly not be ideal, but they might be able to make it work. That said, the MAC is not accepting football-only members anymore. I feel like I should just put this in my signature at this point.

[stever20]

The problem for Dayton is the expansion happened 2 years ago, before they had gone 5-2 in the NCAA tourney. Also the fact that Xavier was a lock did hurt Dayton some...

So if looking at Dayton 1998-2013 vs Creighton 1998-2013, it's a complete no brainer.
6-4 tourney appearances
4-1 tourney wins

I think the longer past didn't mean as much quite frankly.

Also the issue going forward for Dayton is they won't be compared with Creighton. With today's news about the CFP, you wonder what that does with UConn. If UConn becomes available they are a clear #11. Dayton then would be compared with VCU for #12....
Dayton vs VCU 2000-2015
Dayton 6 tourneys, VCU 8
Dayton 6 wins, VCU 8

Plus, VCU gives the Big East a totally new market.

[Bill Marsh]

Frankly, Marquette, the best solution to the UConn situation - short of an invitation to a P5 conference - is a hybrid conference, strange as that might seem. A hybrid would allow half a dozen elite mid-major (DId I just say that?) football programs like UConn, Cincinnati, BYU, and Boise (Not that UConn football is elite right now) to create an East/West affiliation in which they are technically in the same conference, but which would allow their other sports to have a regional schedule with non-football members while the football programs compete with top non-P5 programs coast to coast. There are not enough top mid-major football programs to create such a conference by themselves. The best efforts to come up with such an all sports conference invariably leave them. Vulnerable in basketball, which is their best opportunity to make a name for themselves. A hybrid would allow them to have the best of both worlds although I don't know who would be interested in such a concept right now.

[HoosierPal]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25139160/big-12-acc-conference-championship-game-restrictions-to-be-relaxed-by-2016

Dennis Dodd reporting that NCAA Conference Championship game restrictions to be "relaxed" by 2016. This would mean that the Big 12 would not need 12 members to hold a conference title game, and that conferences (ACC, B1G, PAC-12, SEC) would not need divisions to determine two best teams facing off against each other. Conferences would be able to determine who gets to play in their title game based on overall records, not divisional records.

In a nutshell, the Big 12 does not need two more teams to get a championship game - meaning they will not need to poach schools from the MWC, AAC or any other conference.

Realignment, from a football perspective, looks to be frozen in place for the foreseeable future.

NJRedman, I believe your comment to me this fall was "NO WAY IN HELL" when I suggested this as a possibility. Is it getting warm where you are? Never is a long, long time.

[Xudash]

XU Dash, I know you're a smart guy and a knowledgable college basketball fan, but I'm not following your line of reasoning on this Dayton thing. Let's compare them with Creighton's credentials at the time they were considered to evaluate their resume.

Dayton (2000-15) - 6 tournament appearances
Creighton (1998-2013) - 9 tournament appearances

Advantage: Creighton although not overwhelming.

Dayton (2000-15) - 6 tournament wins, including an Elite 8
Creighton (1998-2013) - 4 tournament wins never making it out of the first weekend

Advantage: Dayton and to me the Elite 8 and the fact that their shining moments have come in their most recent and therefore most relevant appearances makes it a pretty significant advantage. Add to that the fact that Creighton had more opportunities to get wins and didn't. Add to that the fact that Dayton has had wins over big programs under 2 different coaches - West Virginia, Ohio State, Syracuse, Stanford, Providence. Those are big wins.

Dayton (1980-99) - 3 tournament appearances with 4 wins, 1 Elite 8
Creighton (1979-98) - 3 tournament. Appearances with 1 win

Advantage: Dayton. I began by looking at what Dayton has done since 2000, which created a 16 year time frame in which to view each program. When we look at the extended history of the 2 programs, going back 20 years in each case prior to their earliest tournament appearance in this 16 year window, both had fallen on hard times with just 3 tournament appearances by each. But even in a down cycle, Dayton had won more games and had gone to an Elite 8.

Although I understand your point about Dayton fans being obnoxious and overrating their program (I personally have no idea about this), I fail to see how their resume is worse than Creighton's in any significant way. In some ways, it is better. Certainly their success in the 1960's (NIT title, Final 4) combined with their more recent Elite 8's (2 in the last 30 years) makes them a more historic program. Whatever failures they have made in coaching hires is now history. The presidents and administrators responsible for those are probably long gone. Correct me if I'm wrong. But there most recent hire was a home run, which is encouraging.

Frankly the credentials of the 2 programs as candidates are very similar. It's their ability to draw big crowds to home games that is their biggest credential. Creighton is better at this, but Dayton is consistently a top 25 program in this category, which makes them exceptional in their own right. Both the Wall Street Journal and Forbes have separately ranked Dayton as one of the 25 most valuable college basketball programs in the country. That's a big deal. Financial health goes a long way toward insuring future athletic success. Dayton may not right now be a destination job, but membership in the Big East could help to change that. Even if it never changes, however, they wouldn't be unique in that regard among Big
East schools. How many jobs are there really that are immune from a coach leaving for greener pastures? Roy Williams left Kansas for North Carolina. Bill Self left Illinois for Kansas. Rick Pitino left Kentucky for the Celtics. It's the nature of the business.

I don't see how having a 2nd team in southwestern Ohio can hurt. Doubling interest in all Big East games can only help fight off the competition from Cincinnati, Ohio State, Kentucky, etc. There are plenty of examples of programs in the same market enhancing a conference's profile rather than hurting it. Begin with the 3 ACC in North Carolina's 16 mile research triangle around Raleigh. The Big East had noth BC and Providence in the Boston/Providence market of southeastern New England, a very similar situation to Cincinnati/Dayton. St. John's and Seton Hall currently share the NY/NJ market. I get the hate for Dayton, but frankly hate is the basis for almost all of the best rivalries.

Bill, allow me to make one thing clear about this discussion - it must be the nature of communicating on Internet message boards - it's not about hate. It's not about fear. It's about a lack of respect. I have no reason to hate or fear the idea of Dayton's inclusion in the Big East, per se. UD holds the overall series record against Xavier, but I've always found what matters - "what have you done for me lately" - to my liking. Xavier owned Dayton while both were in the A10. The Blackburn/McCafferty Trophy series deal they put together in 1980, which btw only covers regular season meetings, is owned by XU as well: X leads that trophy series 36-20, and thats with UD not having won in Cincinnati since 1981 (i.e. Carter leaving office). So I'm not sitting here, blinded by some kind of demonic fever when it comes to UD. They tend to think more highly of themselves than they should - - probably admirable in a way to have such pride in your program, but they just take it too far. I don't appreciate some of them coming here to try to sling mud at Xavier - the "financial troubles" idiocy; "owing an explanation about Jalen Reynolds." This is a Big East board. I'm a Xavier fan, and very proud of that. UD fans are visitors, at best. So allow me that as some perspective here.

UD vs. Creighton. I can be brief about this. It doesn't matter. Creighton is a conference mate. Creighton has nothing to defend. I've never questioned Creighton's inclusion in this conference. I don't have to do that now; they're already in it. So, I would think that any discussion about comparing programs would involve comparing programs at the increment, if you will: compare programs that aren't in the conference now if you want to discuss expansion candidates. If you're doing this to evidence that UD now is similar to Creighton from a resume standpoint at the time of the Big East coming together in its present form, so why not Dayton, I would take the position that now is not then. We flat out don't need to add any program right now. If you agree with that, then you should agree that we should allow the deal as structured to gel some more. There is nothing the Presidents have to be proactive about. The next two in, if there are to be a next two in, must be accretive in some truly impactful way.

Some specific points to make:

1. I believe their current AD was responsible for hiring Brian Gregory (not a good coach, but a good guy who was a great ambassador for UD, btw).
2. If I recall correctly, during the January of UD's E8 year, the fan base was ready to string up Archie alive. Then they caught fire. Good for Archie and UD.
3. Archie is trending in the right direction; he could be just as good as his brother, but he's clearly made some questionable recruiting/personnel calls already.
4. Jury is still out on Archie, but, if he continues to have success, he's gone from UD and soon at that. It's that simple.
5. Coaches leave everywhere - agree with that. But UD hasn't strung good coaching hires together. That's just a fact, and a risk with them.
4. Agree with all your points about crowds and financial health.

Finally, we'll simply disagree about loading up in Southwest Ohio. You clearly don't understand the mental psyche of a typical UK fan. Overall, there will be no fighting off the competition from a X/UD solution when it comes to fans of all those schools you mentioned in the region. Xavier already enjoys what is regarded as a national Top 10 rivalry game with UC, and even that generally only stimulates very regional interest. Otherwise, I wouldn't be comparing anything that we could do in the Big East with what they do with the teams located in the Research Triangle area, and having teams in close proximity in the NY/NJ area makes sense to me, given the population centers involved.

I'm back to no reason to do anything now. I believe they aren't going to do anything now or for the foreseeable future. With the news that GoldenW11 posted, perhaps the Presidents will just move forward, not even waiting for football movement. Again, they're 2 years into a 12 year, $500 million television deal and they just pumped 11 (?) NCAA Tournament Units into the ledger, having pumped 4 or 5 in last year. Split among TEN teams. So far, unless pigs prefer to become hogs, attempting to game the system does not appear to be something worthy of consideration at this point.

TV partner is building. Conference NCAA haul is solid. I believe they're staying the course.

[Bill Marsh]

XU Dash, thanks for the reply. I won't prolong this, but just a couple of points of clarification.

1. I agree that Creighton has no reason to be defended. They were a good choice. My reason for making the comparison was simply to say that if Creighton had the "right stuff" in terms of resume and if Dayton's resume compares favorably with theirs, then Dayton must meet the threshold for entry level credentials.

2. I defer to your knowledge of the region since I admittedly know nothing about this matter.

3. I'm not pushing here for anything to be done in terms of expansion. Just jumping in on the conversation to look at an interesting hypothetical. If Dayton's not good enough with what they've accomplished, with their attendance. and with their WSJ & Forbes rating, then it's a very short list of available, given that UConn and other football schools are simply not available and won't be any time soon.

[Omaha1]

Let us not forget that Creighton forced the national media (read, ESPN) to pay attention to the new Big East last year. It would have been pretty easy to simply ignore the whole conference, but the McBuckets show made ESPN every night.

[Bill Marsh]

Let us not forget that Creighton forced the national media (read, ESPN) to pay attention to the new Big East last year. It would have been pretty easy to simply ignore the whole conference, but the McBuckets show made ESPN every night.

Vilanova had a pretty good year last year.