Interesting Big12 idea

[Xudash]

I still think the Big 12 will expand by 2. A championship game in a round-robin league seems dangerous for trying to get a team in the playoff. They will add BYU and Cincy (who can give a big thanks to WVU).

You may have missed the quote that mentioned that they'll probably go to two 5-team divisions in order to take the edge off that very issue.

Otherwise, at least in my opinion, you're not looking at it the right way. Media dollars are driving the bus with all this, not a championship game. If it can't be made to work the right way on the media side, they simply won't expand.

[DudeAnon]

I still think the Big 12 will expand by 2. A championship game in a round-robin league seems dangerous for trying to get a team in the playoff. They will add BYU and Cincy (who can give a big thanks to WVU).

You may have missed the quote that mentioned that they'll probably go to two 5-team divisions in order to take the edge off that very issue.

Otherwise, at least in my opinion, you're not looking at it the right way. Media dollars are driving the bus with all this, not a championship game. If it can't be made to work the right way on the media side, they simply won't expand.

So they are playing less conference games? I still think they will expand by BYU and Cincy. The positives outweigh the cons

+ WVU travel partner
+ Increased playoff chances
+ Increased TV revenue (gauranteed and they don't have to share fully)
+ Increased competition (both are good-great in athletics)
+ Huge fanbase in BYU
+ Recruiting in Ohio

What are the cons of those 2?

[Xudash]

I still think the Big 12 will expand by 2. A championship game in a round-robin league seems dangerous for trying to get a team in the playoff. They will add BYU and Cincy (who can give a big thanks to WVU).

You may have missed the quote that mentioned that they'll probably go to two 5-team divisions in order to take the edge off that very issue.

Otherwise, at least in my opinion, you're not looking at it the right way. Media dollars are driving the bus with all this, not a championship game. If it can't be made to work the right way on the media side, they simply won't expand.

So they are playing less conference games? I still think they will expand by BYU and Cincy. The positives outweigh the cons

+ WVU travel partner
+ Increased playoff chances
+ Increased TV revenue (gauranteed and they don't have to share fully)
+ Increased competition (both are good-great in athletics)
+ Huge fanbase in BYU
+ Recruiting in Ohio

What are the cons of those 2?

You need to read the analysis of the impact of the media piece in all of this. They can't make their media deal better by adding two teams. It's that simple. All of this is being driven by cash flow potential, resulting from media deals. If it can't be made to work on the media side, then nothing else matters to them.

I could stop here, but a few other counterpoints:

1. They already believe they'll improve their playoff chances with the championship game that will take place involving the existing 10 teams.
2. Some of them already view WVU as a geographical mistake, and they have no desire to add to the problem.
3. The vast majority of Texas and Oklahoma fans do not see UC as being worthy when it comes to competing at their level.
4. Recruiting in Ohio has been and always will be owned by Ohio State, and when "they get away" they typically end up at Michigan, Notre Dame or Michigan State if they're really good. Beside, UT and OU don't recruit there.

[DudeAnon]

You may have missed the quote that mentioned that they'll probably go to two 5-team divisions in order to take the edge off that very issue.

Otherwise, at least in my opinion, you're not looking at it the right way. Media dollars are driving the bus with all this, not a championship game. If it can't be made to work the right way on the media side, they simply won't expand.

So they are playing less conference games? I still think they will expand by BYU and Cincy. The positives outweigh the cons

+ WVU travel partner
+ Increased playoff chances
+ Increased TV revenue (gauranteed and they don't have to share fully)
+ Increased competition (both are good-great in athletics)
+ Huge fanbase in BYU
+ Recruiting in Ohio

What are the cons of those 2?

You need to read the analysis of the impact of the media piece in all of this. They can't make their media deal better by adding two teams. It's that simple. All of this is being driven by cash flow potential, resulting from media deals. If it can't be made to work on the media side, then nothing else matters to them.

I could stop here, but a few other counterpoints:

1. They already believe they'll improve their playoff chances with the championship game that will take place involving the existing 10 teams.
2. Some of them already view WVU as a geographical mistake, and they have no desire to add to the problem.
3. The vast majority of Texas and Oklahoma fans do not see UC as being worthy when it comes to competing at their level.
4. Recruiting in Ohio has been and always will be owned by Ohio State, and when "they get away" they typically end up at Michigan, Notre Dame or Michigan State if they're really good. Beside, UT and OU don't recruit there.

Their current TV contract has to add 25 million per added school. And the Big 12 don't have to share that revenue fully with the new members.

If the league expands by four teams, provisions in its contracts with ESPN and Fox provide money for that benchmark. If the expansion is by two teams, the increase would be $500 million.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footba ... expanding/

[_lh]

Besides all those good reasons not to expand, the current members can't agree on who to add. BYU might make most happy but the 12th team is much harder to agree on. Some might want Houston while others might want UC or UCONN.

Also, it sounds to me like Texas is against it. If forced to add from the AAC garbage pile, I think Texas just leaves and the B12 folds.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Privately, I would assume a majority of the Big 12 Presidents, Athletic Directors and other administrators don't see the Big 12 staying intact long-term. From the five power conferences, the Big 12 is the most ripe for the picking to the other four. Many of the schools saw the downfall and demise of the old Southwestern Conference - and many of the same parallels are here as well. In the Old Big East, many schools also had similar feelings - realizing the current set-up and structure was not a viable long-term plan for conference affiliation. So, what happened? We saw Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers and the C7 all leave in a span of 10 years - because of that uncertainty (and the guarantee of more exposure and money in other conferences). The exact same thing is happening here. The schools realize the end is near (within 10 years) - so they will bleed this cow for all it is worth until the next shuffle occurs. They will keep getting their money and their seat at the big table.

Is it a sound strategy? It has it's pros and cons. Keeping the status quo, from a money and exposure stand point, is more valuable to them than risking that by adding two G5 schools. Look at what happened to the Old Big East when they decided to add Memphis, Houston, SMU, UCF, Tulane, East Carolina and Temple - they lost their power status and had their TV contract devalued exponentially.

Personally, the biggest takeaway I would have from this whole process is that throwing hundreds of millions of dollars into your athletic program (UConn, Cincinnati, etc.) in hopes of possibly receiving an invitation into the elite club is one of the most expensive gambles in sports and collegiate history. Aside from the fact that there is no guarantee in being called up, you are investing public dollars into winning the lottery. If those schools, and it looks like a very realistic possibility, come away empty handed and have nothing to show for their investment (a power conference affiliation), then it would have been a colossal waste of resources, time and money that was not their's. Just my two cents.

[Redstorm1987]

Doesn't look too good for UCONN. None of the other conference fans mention UCONN as a worthy expansion candidate. UCONN is coming back to the Big East.

[Xudash]

Their current TV contract has to add 25 million per added school. And the Big 12 don't have to share that revenue fully with the new members.

If the league expands by four teams, provisions in its contracts with ESPN and Fox provide money for that benchmark. If the expansion is by two teams, the increase would be $500 million.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-footba ... expanding/[/quote]

You may want to read that again, and it's not even in the fine print: Those rights holders are contractually bound to provide "pro rata" for any new Big 12 members. That is, any new members would be paid an equal share of the current Big 12 members -- approximately $23 million per year.

In other words, the distribution per existing member goes nowhere.

Seriously, the existing 10 could not realize any form of material lift on the media side of the equation. Don't you think they would have announced two or 4 candidates already if it were true that the existing membership could nab from $500 million to $1 billion in incremental media rights revenue?

[DeltaV]

Doesn't look too good for UCONN. None of the other conference fans mention UCONN as a worthy expansion candidate. UCONN is coming back to the Big East.

I highly doubt it. We're not the same anymore. UConn considers itself a state flagship research institution. We're a group of smaller, private institutions with more of a focus on undergraduate and professional education.

[DudeAnon]

You may want to read that again, and it's not even in the fine print: Those rights holders are contractually bound to provide "pro rata" for any new Big 12 members. That is, any new members would be paid an equal share of the current Big 12 members -- approximately $23 million per year.

In other words, the distribution per existing member goes nowhere.

Seriously, the existing 10 could not realize any form of material lift on the media side of the equation. Don't you think they would have announced two or 4 candidates already if it were true that the existing membership could nab from $500 million to $1 billion in incremental media rights revenue?

Touche. I still hope Cincy gets picked up somewhere, I feel bad for my Cincy fan relatives who have pretty much completely given up on the school.