2015-16 Preview #2: Marquette

[stever20]

It's like Wojo wants them to get a real good start.

They have 4 tough games. they need to go at least 2-2 or better to have much of a chance w/o a good conference season of at least 10 wins. I don't think they would get in at 19-12 with only going 1-3 in those 4 tough OOC games and then 9-9 in conference play.

Definitely though not tourney champs or bust quite frankly- if they did go 10-3 OOC, and then won 10-11 conference games, they should get in there(unless the Big East has a poor OOC season). let me correct that- they WOULD get in there.

[Jet915]

Yeah, that Marquette schedule is awful. They picked the worst of the cupcakes. They can really only afford 2 losses, anymore and it would be a big disappointment.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Agree with Stever on this one...(that surprises me too). Last year there were 5 kids 6'9" and above, ranked in the top 10 of their recruiting class (like Ellenson), and ALL were one and done. There is no guarantee but the NBA has a tendency to draft based on potential over performance (see Cliff Alexander). But based on pure talent, if Ellenson is truly one of the top 2-3 kids in his class and is 6'10" I can't imagine he'll be around long even if he does not carry the team (which is a distinct possibility if he is a Top 5 talent).

You've got to love MU's front court. If they can get any consistency out of the PG spot and someone who can occasionally knock down a 3 to keep teams honest, this could very well be the sleeper of the conference.

[stever20]

Yeah Ellenson is kind of a double edged sword for Marquette fans this year. The better he does of course the better it is for Marquette this season- but also more likely means he's a 1 and done.

The other thing that hurts Marquette hoping to keep Ellenson for more than a 1 and done- this year is a very weak draft class.

[MUBoxer]

Yeah Ellenson is kind of a double edged sword for Marquette fans this year. The better he does of course the better it is for Marquette this season- but also more likely means he's a 1 and done.

The other thing that hurts Marquette hoping to keep Ellenson for more than a 1 and done- this year is a very weak draft class.

I think we'd be ok next year without Ellenson, obviously having him would be the difference between us being good vs being a national threat but we still have a very experienced team in 16-17 with or without Henry.

I don't think it hurts MU keeping Ellenson for more than a year, and probably barely hurts Henry, Harrison Barnes stayed a second year and still went 7th, probably fell 2 or 3 spots.

[stever20]

Yeah Ellenson is kind of a double edged sword for Marquette fans this year. The better he does of course the better it is for Marquette this season- but also more likely means he's a 1 and done.

The other thing that hurts Marquette hoping to keep Ellenson for more than a 1 and done- this year is a very weak draft class.

I think we'd be ok next year without Ellenson, obviously having him would be the difference between us being good vs being a national threat but we still have a very experienced team in 16-17 with or without Henry.

I don't think it hurts MU keeping Ellenson for more than a year, and probably barely hurts Henry, Harrison Barnes stayed a second year and still went 7th, probably fell 2 or 3 spots.

One thing that is interesting to think about for Ellenson is when the NBA CBA expires. Right now, it's the 2017-18 season. So does he want to get into the NBA for the 16-17 season and get a year in before the CBA is redone?

Also have to remember the year Barnes would have come out was when the NBA CBA expired- and a lot of guys returned to college as a result. I really think we're going to see anyone who is close come out this upcoming year. Goes for Brunson as well at Nova.

[DudeAnon]

One thing that is interesting to think about for Ellenson is when the NBA CBA expires. Right now, it's the 2017-18 season. So does he want to get into the NBA for the 16-17 season and get a year in before the CBA is redone?

Also have to remember the year Barnes would have come out was when the NBA CBA expired- and a lot of guys returned to college as a result. I really think we're going to see anyone who is close come out this upcoming year. Goes for Brunson as well at Nova.

Not that rookies are the main beneficiary, but I have a feeling the player's union new leader Michelle Roberts is going to get a hell of a deal for the players. But still, forfeiting one year of lottery pick salary for a better deal next year is never a wise move (sorry Kris Dunn.)

[stever20]

One thing that is interesting to think about for Ellenson is when the NBA CBA expires. Right now, it's the 2017-18 season. So does he want to get into the NBA for the 16-17 season and get a year in before the CBA is redone?

Also have to remember the year Barnes would have come out was when the NBA CBA expired- and a lot of guys returned to college as a result. I really think we're going to see anyone who is close come out this upcoming year. Goes for Brunson as well at Nova.

Not that rookies are the main beneficiary, but I have a feeling the player's union new leader Michelle Roberts is going to get a hell of a deal for the players. But still, forfeiting one year of lottery pick salary for a better deal next year is never a wise move (sorry Kris Dunn.)

Very debatable if Dunn would have gotten in the lottery.

If you are where Dunn was- in that 14-18 range- you would be guaranteed only 5.2-4.3 million dollars. And some had him at 20 ish, which isn't even 4 million dollars.

IF Dunn can work up to even #11 this year- he gets a lot more- guaranteed 6,375,000

As far as Roberts is concerned- I just don't see it as easy as you think. For one- there's a whole hell of a lot more other players than there are star players. It's no guarantee at all that you see that much of a difference.

[DudeAnon]

Very debatable if Dunn would have gotten in the lottery.

If you are where Dunn was- in that 14-18 range- you would be guaranteed only 5.2-4.3 million dollars. And some had him at 20 ish, which isn't even 4 million dollars.

IF Dunn can work up to even #11 this year- he gets a lot more- guaranteed 6,375,000

You have to account that Dunn is giving up a year of his prime earning potential. So even if he optimally gets the difference you mentioned 1-2 million, it wasn't for nothing. He gave up a year of NBA potential and is taking risks with his knees.

[stever20]

Very debatable if Dunn would have gotten in the lottery.

If you are where Dunn was- in that 14-18 range- you would be guaranteed only 5.2-4.3 million dollars. And some had him at 20 ish, which isn't even 4 million dollars.

IF Dunn can work up to even #11 this year- he gets a lot more- guaranteed 6,375,000

You have to account that Dunn is giving up a year of his prime earning potential. So even if he optimally gets the difference you mentioned 1-2 million, it wasn't for nothing. He gave up a year of NBA potential and is taking risks with his knees.

Maybe. Only thing is he'd be playing at least 40 fewer games this year- and given likely going to a playoff team- maybe closer to 50-60 games.

And the risk to him just isn't the knee. Shoulder as well.

But let's not just say that he was a lock lottery selection. He wasn't.