Re: ESPN Early top 25
Posted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 4:47 pm
NovaBall wrote:If xavier lost in the first round of the big east tourney, I think they were still comfortable in the dance. I think that was because the conference was viewed as so strong, not because xavier lit it up with a 10-3 out of conference record. It wasn't the Murray state, cincy, Alabama and Murray state wins against the long beach st and auburn losses ooc that saved the day for xavier. It was the strength of the big east.
Xavier was safe even with a first round loss in the big east tourney. But if the big east were the 5th rated conference, I'm not sure a team with a similar profile (provided they lost in bet) was getting in.
Often times it is the strength of conference in rpi that puts one team over the top or another team out. Xavier's ooc effort this past year was not the type of barn burning performance that set them apart and got them in.
Also, the overall conference rpi being better (based on ooc portion) helps make sure that the middle of the pack teams maintain top 50 status rather than drop to the 60'is or 70's. The difference between rpi #45 and rpi #65 is not that great in terms of computer numbers. But the difference between a top 50 win versus a win v #65 can be significant for bubble teams.
The key though is they have to keep the same profile. You are looking at it because they were a 6 seed. The 2 BET wins probably got them up 3 seed lines quite frankly- they were #24 so to put them down to at least #33 is very possible(say 5 spots per game). The 10-3 OOC record then means a lot. 9-4 would mean they're 18-14 and very much on the bubble. 8-5 would mean they're 17-15 and out.
Just looking Xavier was #27 OOC RPI with the #37 SOS. That's #4 OOC RPI in the Big East- with the #3 OOC SOS in the Big East. That's actually a very good OOC schedule.
I look at Stanford who was 9-9 in the #6 Pac 12. They won 1st rd P12 game(vs #11 Washington) then lost in the 2nd. They went 9-3 OOC with only the 36th RPI and the 70th SOS. I think it's probably very fair to say, if they beat DePaul or BYU OOC they are in the tourney.
Bottom line Xavier did get the wins over Cincy, Murray St, Alabama, and SF Austin(2 top 50's and 2 top 100's) and did well enough OOC. Stanford didn't. Can't get much simpler than that.