UConn escape plan - The Big East

[GoldenWarrior11]

Frank, do you think UConn will eventually get an invitation to a P5 conference? If their gamble fails, it would put a huge hurt on their other athletic teams. I don't think UConn wants to play Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa, UCF, USF, Houston and SMU long-term (correct me if I'm wrong).

[gtmoBlue]

Should Tx and Oklahoma finally leave the Big 12, the conference would look to take SMU, Houston, and possibly Tulsa from the AAC in order to keep the Big 12 viable, even as a lesser conference.

[Frank the Tank]

Frank, do you think UConn will eventually get an invitation to a P5 conference? If their gamble fails, it would put a huge hurt on their other athletic teams. I don't think UConn wants to play Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa, UCF, USF, Houston and SMU long-term (correct me if I'm wrong).

Well, that's the tough bind that UConn is in right now. As of now, the Big 12 is the most likely P5 conference to expand, but they're much less likely to find UConn to be attractive compared to the ACC (and maybe the Big Ten). The most likely route for UConn going to the P5 is if the Big Ten and/or SEC takes one or two ACC schools (and then then the ACC would backfill with UConn), which might not happen for another decade (if ever). So, I don't envy the decisions that UConn's leadership has to make: the path to the P5 is very narrow and might never be realized, but since they are one of the few schools that have a legit shot for the P5, they still can't ever step off the gas on FBS football investment (no matter what might happen to their men's and women's basketball programs). This isn't like UMass trying to build a FBS program from scratch, a school like Southern Miss fooling themselves into believing that they'll get into the SEC or ACC if they play well enough, or 95% of the rest of the G5 that have zero chance at a P5 invite. UConn has the location, brand name, and requisite academic credentials to legitimately make it into a P5 conference. As a result, the potential upside of a P5 invite is waaaaaaay too much for UConn to give up on FBS football for the next 15 to 20 years at a minimum, even if the chances of getting that potential upside looks very low in the short-term.

[ivet]

As a result, the potential upside of a P5 invite is waaaaaaay too much for UConn to give up on FBS football for the next 15 to 20 years at a minimum, even if the chances of getting that potential upside looks very low in the short-term.

That's a pretty risky gamble waiting so long. I don't see them heavily investing in their football program and I think they are more likely to become irrelevant than actually getting an invite with the scenario you gave.

[DudeAnon]

There is so much money to be made in football that they would be stupid to not wait out their bet a little longer. After the next big shift, if they are still left out in the cold. They will give up football. Meanwhile, we can just sit back and watch the dominoes fall.

[MackNova]

UConn offers no recruiting area that's appealing to a major conference. Their football program is poor with no tradition. Their stadium is a dump. Their fan base is nonexistent for football.

Hard to see UConn getting an invite anywhere. Don't blame them for holding onto a shred of hope, since the upside of the Power 5 pipe dream is so great, but it's just hard to see a scenario in which case UConn is appealing. Their best hope is that Bob Diaco can turn them into one of the better programs in the AAC by the time another wave of expansion arrives.

[GoldenWarrior11]

I'm probably in the minority, but I'm just shocked that a school would practically sacrifice their athletic program for the benefit of their football team (which isn't very prestigious, and still very new to FBS, compared to other schools in the P5). UConn's money maker is basketball (Men's and Women's). If they keep dancing to the music long enough, they're won't be any chairs for them left to sit in - and THAT would be terrible for the university.

The line that is continually being used is, "We are thinking for what's best for the student-athletes." Well, if that's true, how is it better for student-athletes (non-football) that are traveling to Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Tennessee and North Carolina for conference games? The thinking is, "What's best for our football program, that will allow us into a bigger, better conference and give us more $$$? Who cares if we are competitive or not?"

Thankfully, we don't have this problem, eh fellas?

[BigmanU]

The only logical way UConn gets in a conference is through the ACC. The BIG has wanted Notre Dame for years. If by any miracle this happens, ACC would probably replace them with UConn.

[Frank the Tank]

As a result, the potential upside of a P5 invite is waaaaaaay too much for UConn to give up on FBS football for the next 15 to 20 years at a minimum, even if the chances of getting that potential upside looks very low in the short-term.

That's a pretty risky gamble waiting so long. I don't see them heavily investing in their football program and I think they are more likely to become irrelevant than actually getting an invite with the scenario you gave.

I'd look at it this way: it's a pretty risky gamble to wait, but it's an even bigger gamble NOT to wait.

The simple math is that UConn is receiving about $3 million per year in conference revenue from the AAC. In contrast, even the bottom of the P5 schools are receiving over $20 million per year in conference revenue *today* (and will rise up to the $30 million per year in the next decade), and you might be seeing the Big Ten paying out $50 million per year or more for each school annually when they sign their new TV contracts in a couple of years. Any school that has a legit chance at that type of windfall is going to be willing to endure many years of losses because a single year's worth of ACC or Big Ten money will wipe all of those prior losses out instantaneously.

There's only one way into the P5: football. It doesn't necessarily have to be the greatest football program in the world (see Rutgers and Maryland), but you NEED football nonetheless. UConn has already seen very clearly that basketball isn't enough and won't drive revenue going forward.

Also, plenty of schools can get by with top level basketball in less-than-elite conferences. We see this with Gonzaga, Wichita State and VCU. UConn can still be a top-level basketball program whether they're in the AAC or any other conference. However, that is NOT the case with football. If you have FBS football, then you are either with the "in crowd" in the power conferences or you're out. Unless UConn is going to drop FBS football entirely (which they're frankly not going to do), then they have to do everything possible to maximize that front.

Like I've said, there isn't a guarantee that UConn will land in a power conference spot. However, anyone that thinks that UConn is going to drop FBS football in order to concentrate on basketball is fooling themselves. They HAVE to try for the power conference invite with how close they came in this last realignment cycle. Even Jim Calhoun, when he was asked a few years ago about what is the best conference for UConn, replied, "Whatever is the best conference for our *football* program." The basketball people know that football drives the bus. Going full bore on football is the only option that UConn has right now.

[Xudash]

As a result, the potential upside of a P5 invite is waaaaaaay too much for UConn to give up on FBS football for the next 15 to 20 years at a minimum, even if the chances of getting that potential upside looks very low in the short-term.

That's a pretty risky gamble waiting so long. I don't see them heavily investing in their football program and I think they are more likely to become irrelevant than actually getting an invite with the scenario you gave.

I'd look at it this way: it's a pretty risky gamble to wait, but it's an even bigger gamble NOT to wait.

The simple math is that UConn is receiving about $3 million per year in conference revenue from the AAC. In contrast, even the bottom of the P5 schools are receiving over $20 million per year in conference revenue *today* (and will rise up to the $30 million per year in the next decade), and you might be seeing the Big Ten paying out $50 million per year or more for each school annually when they sign their new TV contracts in a couple of years. Any school that has a legit chance at that type of windfall is going to be willing to endure many years of losses because a single year's worth of ACC or Big Ten money will wipe all of those prior losses out instantaneously.

There's only one way into the P5: football. It doesn't necessarily have to be the greatest football program in the world (see Rutgers and Maryland), but you NEED football nonetheless. UConn has already seen very clearly that basketball isn't enough and won't drive revenue going forward.

Also, plenty of schools can get by with top level basketball in less-than-elite conferences. We see this with Gonzaga, Wichita State and VCU. UConn can still be a top-level basketball program whether they're in the AAC or any other conference. However, that is NOT the case with football. If you have FBS football, then you are either with the "in crowd" in the power conferences or you're out. Unless UConn is going to drop FBS football entirely (which they're frankly not going to do), then they have to do everything possible to maximize that front.

Like I've said, there isn't a guarantee that UConn will land in a power conference spot. However, anyone that thinks that UConn is going to drop FBS football in order to concentrate on basketball is fooling themselves. They HAVE to try for the power conference invite with how close they came in this last realignment cycle. Even Jim Calhoun, when he was asked a few years ago about what is the best conference for UConn, replied, "Whatever is the best conference for our *football* program." The basketball people know that football drives the bus. Going full bore on football is the only option that UConn has right now.

I agree with you that they've put themselves in a position, mostly due to their investments made to-date in football, of having to go for it, if you will. I just hope they understand that they're going for it with the equivalent of a King and three Pawns against a stacked board on the other side.