Bubble Watch

[XUFan09]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

Agree Bill. Bottom line is that teams need to win games down the stretch to justify their selection. I just get frustrated by the line of thought that looks at RPI Projection sites and use that as Gospel. No one knows for sure what's going to happen--we can only look at current resumes and recognize that everything will be fluid. If the season ended today there is NO way Tulsa gets in and the same can be said for UCONN and FL. Thinking that these team have a much better shot at the tourney at this point in time makes no sense to me.

If you're referring to me, don't make a strawman out of what I"m saying (if not me, cool). These predictions from sites with historic success just show that there is some basis for these arguments and that they aren't off the wall. Dance Card and the Bracket Matrix composite also have Tulsa in the tournament, though. When three respectable predictors are saying the same thing, I take notice, even if it sounds weird. And Tulsa is a weird case, because the computer numbers aren't good and the SOS isn't good (but not terrible either). Their road record is 7-2, which in particular is something worth noting, as the Committee recently (and especially last year) seems to have a fetish with how well a team does on the road. To a decent degree, it doesn't matter what caliber of opponents they beat in the process. Also, most of Tulsa's losses are to top 25 teams (Then there's the loss to SE Oklahoma St...What's that all about?). More than anything, Tulsa has just been winning and generally only losing to teams that would be seeded higher than them anyway. I can see why they are being considered, even though I wouldn't include them if I were on the Committee.

FWIW Team Rankings has Florida in and Bracket Project puts Florida right on the bubble, but Dance Card really doesn't like them, putting them 20 spots below the last team in. And Connecticut isn't on the radar of Bracket Matrix, while they are way out on Dance Card, despite being a bubble team on Team Rankings. Dance Card and Bracket Matrix also like St. John's more. These are three of the better predictors out there, but there are still going to be some discrepancies.

Every year, there's a selection or a seeding choice that pisses people off, so I've learned to accept that there will be some weird choices.

[stever20]

Dance Card likes St John's because they use the old RPI. Right now- St John's using the OLD RPI is 37. The current one has them at 51.

[hoyahooligan]

Continued Mock Selection:

Xavier 33rd 9 seed
No other BE teams selected.

Last 5 teams in:
Dayton, Illinois, UCLA, Stanford, Michigan St.


bids by conference:

B10 7
B12 7
BE 5
ACC 5
P12 5 ( Looks like Oregon got the Auto Bid
SEC 5
AAC 3 ( No Tulsa)
A10 3 ( Davidson got Auto bid)

[billyjack]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

Agree Bill. Bottom line is that teams need to win games down the stretch to justify their selection. I just get frustrated by the line of thought that looks at RPI Projection sites and use that as Gospel. No one knows for sure what's going to happen--we can only look at current resumes and recognize that everything will be fluid. If the season ended today there is NO way Tulsa gets in and the same can be said for UCONN and FL. Thinking that these team have a much better shot at the tourney at this point in time makes no sense to me.

If you're referring to me, don't make a strawman out of what I"m saying (if not me, cool). These predictions from sites with historic success just show that there is some basis for these arguments and that they aren't off the wall. Dance Card and the Bracket Matrix composite also have Tulsa in the tournament, though. When three respectable predictors are saying the same thing, I take notice, even if it sounds weird. And Tulsa is a weird case, because the computer numbers aren't good and the SOS isn't good (but not terrible either). Their road record is 7-2, which in particular is something worth noting, as the Committee recently (and especially last year) seems to have a fetish with how well a team does on the road. To a decent degree, it doesn't matter what caliber of opponents they beat in the process. Also, most of Tulsa's losses are to top 25 teams (Then there's the loss to SE Oklahoma St...What's that all about?). More than anything, Tulsa has just been winning and generally only losing to teams that would be seeded higher than them anyway. I can see why they are being considered, even though I wouldn't include them if I were on the Committee.

FWIW Team Rankings has Florida in and Bracket Project puts Florida right on the bubble, but Dance Card really doesn't like them, putting them 20 spots below the last team in. And Connecticut isn't on the radar of Bracket Matrix, while they are way out on Dance Card, despite being a bubble team on Team Rankings. Dance Card and Bracket Matrix also like St. John's more. These are three of the better predictors out there, but there are still going to be some discrepancies.

Every year, there's a selection or a seeding choice that pisses people off, so I've learned to accept that there will be some weird choices.

XU,
I'm pretty sure it wasn't you, but our resident HLoH pessimist that refers to predicted RPI all the time as Gospel.

That guy has run through a dozen teams in the last 3 weeks that were going to be NCAA shoo-ins (against our common sense), only to see each of them collapse or fail... Davidson, Richmond, Miami, NC State, don't sleep on Purdue, Pitt, Tulane, Memphis, Temple, Tulsa... now Minnesota is the flavor of the week... next week will be Pitt again or Clemson...

[stever20]

billyjack-
couldn't you say the same thing about Seton Hall. They've gone in 1 week from having a 43% chance of getting in the tourney down to a 11.8% chance of getting in. That's the biggest drop of any team in the country.

And yeah, Temple of the teams you mentioned is pretty close to a shoe-in right now. 89% chance of getting in. Tulsa is a 72% chance still.

I mean look. For St John's it's simple. If they get either 4 more regular season wins or 3 and make the BET SF, they will be in. If they don't, they won't. It's pretty much that simple for them. Other teams really don't mean much at all for St John's.

[XUFan09]

FYI Team Rankings does not project the bracket based on "if the season ended today." They have an analytic system (similar to Kenpom and Sagarin) to predict future outcomes, which they account for in their probability of tournament selection and seeding. That's why Xavier has an 88.3% chance of making the tournament right now and not a 100% chance. I think all the other predictors make their projections based off current positions.

I think the people that make Dance Card still use the old RPI formula because it's the one they were using when they first developed the system, and they decided the change would not be significant to the effectiveness of the system.

RPI Forecast is still something to pay close attention to, particularly since it gives the probability of each record with the respective projected RPI. For all the details that go into tournament resumes, unfortunately in many ways it's just the top RPI teams that are chosen, with only a few exceptions. That will be especially true if this Committee follows in the steps of Wellman's Committee from last year (which generally neglected advanced metrics) rather than Bobinski's Committee from two years ago.

[stever20]

Just looking at locks by ESPN right now....
ACC- Virginia, Duke, UNC, Louisville, Notre Dame- at least 4 at larges
Big 12- Kansas, Oklahoma- at least 1 at large
BE- Villanova
B10- Wisconsin
P12- Arizona, Utah- at least 1 at large
SEC- Kentucky
WCC- Gonzaga
so 6 at large locks.
now the teams that should be in...
A10- VCU
B12- Baylor, Iowa St, Oklahoma St- 3 more at larges
BE-Butler, Georgetown, Providence- 3 at larges
B10- Maryland- 1 more at large
SEC- Arkansas- 1 more at large
MVC- Northern Iowa, Wichita St- 1 at large
so 9 at larges there.

So at least 15 at larges now either locks or should be in(could be more if one of these teams don't win conference tourney). Leaves 21 spots at the most.

One point ESPN made about VCU is very apt. With each loss that VCU takes, it makes a win over VCU seem that much less impressive.

[Bill Marsh]

Gumby, I think you nailed it on Tulsa. Their remaining games against Temple, @SMU, and Cincy are huge. This is their only game against Cincy this year, and they really aren't built to do well against Cincy's style of play. They also can't afford a loss at Memphis like the one they just had at UConn. The rest of their schedule is against mostly sub-200 teams, so just playing those teams hurts them.

I'm predicting that they lose all 3 of those big games. Although they have a big win earlier in the season @ Temple, the Owls were a different team then than they are now. Their only hope after that is to get to the AAC finals and depending on matchups, that might not even be enough. Right now they're headed in the wrong direction.

OTOH, St. John's has 3 home games at the end of this month that are "must" wins for them. I'm thinking that they must win all 3 or else they'll have to go deep into the BE tournament. Tulsa is no threat to take a bid from then without some surprises butt here are other teams that are.

Agree Bill. Bottom line is that teams need to win games down the stretch to justify their selection. I just get frustrated by the line of thought that looks at RPI Projection sites and use that as Gospel. No one knows for sure what's going to happen--we can only look at current resumes and recognize that everything will be fluid. If the season ended today there is NO way Tulsa gets in and the same can be said for UCONN and FL. Thinking that these team have a much better shot at the tourney at this point in time makes no sense to me.

So does future schedule mean anything to you? St John's has to win 4 games to get in. Just looking right now they are a 68% favorite vs Seton Hall. But then they're now a dog to Xavier(49%), 51% vs Georgetown, and 53% @ Marquette. I'm sorry- but to expect this years St John's team to win all of those games- is comical- they've shown nothing to indicate they can do it. You have to look at the entire schedule. You can't just use the concept if the season ended today, because guess what, the season doesn't end today.
Same with UConn. They have 14 wins. They have 3 games left where they are between a 65-85% chance of winning. Give them those 3 and they have 17 wins. They then have 4 games where they are underdog- but look at the percentages- 22%, 41%, 44%, and 37%. If they can get 2 of those 4 games, they are 19-11, and have a very real shot at an at large. If they don't, they won't have a chance- but still they have a whole hell of a lot better chance than if you just look at it in the prism of if the season ended today. In a lot of ways, I'd rather have the UConn situation where they need to get 2 of 3 close to pick'em type games vs St John's, who needs to get 3 of 3 close pick'em type games.

Agree that St. John's needs 4 more wins. The most direct route for the to get those 4 wins is to win the 3 close games at home vs:

Seton Hall
Xavier
Georgetown

And then to beat Marquette on the road. They're not favored to win all 4 of those, but the scenario simply means that have to pull out one more close game than they're favored to. Regardless of whether you or I can see THIS St. John's team doing that, it's certainly doable. We'll find out what they're made of. If they succeed, they're in.

But there's another route if they fail to do that. Let's assume that they lose to Georgetown in the Garden since that figures to be the closest of those 3 home games. They will face Georgetown in the first round of the BE tournament. It's hard for any team to beat another good team 3 times in the same season. In this case, Georgetown would have to win 3 games in 3 weeks with 2 of them on their opponent's home court. Chances are good that St. John's will one of those 3 games. The Redmen may well need a win against Butler in the BE tournament as well. Last time the 2 teams met in the Garden, Butler pulled out a 4-point win. Close game. Could go either way on the rematch. Certainly doable.

As for UConn, I disagree that 4 more wins will get them in. I'm guessing that they will need those 4 wins + a couple of wins in the AAC tournament. So, they really do have a tougher road than St. John's. Sure they have some high probability wins, but the problem is that those wins don't advance their case when they still have so much ground to make up to achieve a top 50 RPI. So, they need one more win than expected in the regular season AND a couple of wins in the conference tournament. For St. John's, it's either/or.

[stever20]

If UConn beats Memphis home, Tulane, and ECU- that takes them up to 17 wins. First off, if they got all 4 of the other games- they would be 21-9 with a 34 RPI. I don't think there would be a doubt in the world that they would be in. If they got 3 of 4 of the other games they would be 20-10 with a 42 RPI. That's still a very good place- and probably not needing anything but to avoid a bad loss in the conference tourney. And compare to St John's winning 4 games reg season- that would get St John's to 19-11 and a 44 RPI. I just would rather have 1 mulligan. Like if St John's could win tomorrow @ Xavier, I'd feel a whole heck of a lot better about their chances because rather than having to win all 3 of Xavier, Georgetown, and Marquette, they would only need to take 2/3. HUGE difference there.

Also- for St John's looking at RPI forecast, the game they have the lowest odds of winning isn't Georgetown, but rather Xavier.

[NJRedman]

You guys seem to have missed that when we were struggling in that stretch a few weeks ago Harrison wasn't himself and couldn't shoot a lick and we lost those games. If you are paying attention he just dropped 33 on DePaul and has his swag back. We won our last two games without a big man on the floor. Also, we are a team who steps it up in February. Lets Go St. John's!!!!!