GoldenWarrior11 wrote:The exit fees from Texas and Oklahoma will be just over $150 million, paid out through the end of the current GOR in 2025. Assuming Texas and Oklahoma are in the Big 12 through only this next year, that would mean there would be three years of exits fees to distribute to the Big 8 (remaining members of the Big 12). It comes out to, roughly, $19 million per school, just over $6 million per school per year. In the long-run those are peanuts. I liken it to the scene in Goodfellas, where Henry Hill is given a wad of cash from Paulie, after he loses his connections and associations. "Thirty-two hundred dollars he gave me. Thirty-two hundred dollars for a lifetime. It wasn't even enough to pay for the coffin."
I wouldn't be shocked to see the new Big 12 TV deal pay out below $20 million per member annually, with the losses of Texas and Oklahoma. It might very well be in the $15 million range, assuming it just picks up a Cincinnati or UCF. That, in turn, rips up the AAC TV contract and drops their value likely below $5 million.
Excellent post. Loved the Goodfellas reference, and it is spot on.
As a Xavier fan, I am interested in UC's predicament in all this. Objectively, I think it would be safe to assume at this point that, assuming UT and OU exit the conference, the Big12 will prove to be an upgrade for UC, as compared to staying in the AAC as it exists today, assuming the right additions are made to the conference to make up for the losses of those two bellwether programs. It will be an upgrade, but it won't be enough.
UC is tapped out as it stands now. A lot of money was pumped into Nippert and the remodeling of 5th/3rd Arena. It incurs real losses within its athletic budget. Those losses are subsidized by healthy student fees. The academic side of that campus continues to grumble about UC's priorities. It all makes for a big mess in Clifton.
College football programs could be broken down and slotted into Heaven, Purgatory and Hell categories. It's been that way for years, but real clarity is being brought to those classifications now.
Heaven? The obvious: Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas, USC, Michigan (although in hell right now!), and a sprinkling of other SEC and other P5 teams. Depends upon how you define it. Is it about money (i.e. payouts / finances) or is it the ability to win national championships? If it's the latter, then the above list is it; it would be about the ability to be in the club and collect big paychecks. Schools like Indiana and Arizona, as examples, could continue to enjoy being in the club, collecting their share of the money, but while watching the playoffs every year. If it's the former, then it is that very short list of schools that look like Ohio State, Alabama, etc. Things may be cyclical to a degree, but the juggernauts with the 100,000+ capacity stadiums, rabid fan bases, tradition et al will be and remain in a very exclusive club.
Purgatory? Any school that ends up continuing to field a football team that has some fanbase attached to it, but which funds itself heavily from student fees. More to the point, any program that is part of an inadequate - payouts are too low to effectively fund a football program - media agreement. These are programs that want and feel they need football and continue to field teams, but they feel it financially overall within the institution.
Hell? MAC schools, C-USA, MWC, etc. Schools that do not have a prayer in hell of winning a NC and that mostly can only hope for something named along the lines of the Poulan Weedeater Bowl at the end of the season. Programs that clearly operate in the red. Programs that are at risk of dropping from the CFB grouping.