RPI RANKING: FEEL FREE TO ADD OTHER RANKINGS

[Bill Marsh]

the more important RPI forecast by what record they're projecting-
Villanova 26-5 13-5 11.3
Xavier 21-10 11-7 25.3
Butler 22-9 12-6 26.9
St John's 20-10 10-8 34.8
Seton Hall 20-10 10-8 32.9
Georgetown 18-11 9-9 36.2
Providence 19-12 9-9 48.2
Marquette 15-15 7-11 95.4(note they have 7-11 projected as conference plus 8-4 would be 15-15)
Creighton 15-16 6-12 126.3
DePaul 8-23 2-16 253.2

only thing I'd say about their projection is that I don't see Villanova only winning 13 conference games and really don't see St John's winning only 10 conference games. The extra games they win come from Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Providence.

looking at Ken Pom with RPI forecast RPI's using those records
Villanova 27-4 14-4 8.7
St John's 22-8 12-6 21.1
Georgetown 18-11 10-8 36.2
Xavier 19-12 10-8 40.8
Butler 20-11 10-8 43.2
Seton Hall 19-11 9-9 42.3
Providence 19-12 9-9 48.2
Creighton 16-15 7-11 110.7
Marquette 14-16 6-12 110.3
DePaul 9-22 3-15 237.9

I think with Nova and St John's- this is more realistic. Thing with teams 3-7- there is pretty much no margin for error- 1 more loss and the RPI(maybe except for Georgetown) falls where they would be out.

They're not projecting records. It's a statistical thing to show where the teams are right now. Nobody knows what the final records will be. That could depend on which way the ball bounces in a lot of 1, 2, and 3 point games.

[stever20]

the more important RPI forecast by what record they're projecting-
Villanova 26-5 13-5 11.3
Xavier 21-10 11-7 25.3
Butler 22-9 12-6 26.9
St John's 20-10 10-8 34.8
Seton Hall 20-10 10-8 32.9
Georgetown 18-11 9-9 36.2
Providence 19-12 9-9 48.2
Marquette 15-15 7-11 95.4(note they have 7-11 projected as conference plus 8-4 would be 15-15)
Creighton 15-16 6-12 126.3
DePaul 8-23 2-16 253.2

only thing I'd say about their projection is that I don't see Villanova only winning 13 conference games and really don't see St John's winning only 10 conference games. The extra games they win come from Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Providence.

looking at Ken Pom with RPI forecast RPI's using those records
Villanova 27-4 14-4 8.7
St John's 22-8 12-6 21.1
Georgetown 18-11 10-8 36.2
Xavier 19-12 10-8 40.8
Butler 20-11 10-8 43.2
Seton Hall 19-11 9-9 42.3
Providence 19-12 9-9 48.2
Creighton 16-15 7-11 110.7
Marquette 14-16 6-12 110.3
DePaul 9-22 3-15 237.9

I think with Nova and St John's- this is more realistic. Thing with teams 3-7- there is pretty much no margin for error- 1 more loss and the RPI(maybe except for Georgetown) falls where they would be out.

They're not projecting records. It's a statistical thing to show where the teams are right now. Nobody knows what the final records will be. That could depend on which way the ball bounces in a lot of 1, 2, and 3 point games.

They absolutely are projecting records and what the RPI would look like with those records. What they are showing is the average projection from 10,000 sims. They're saying if St John's finishes 20-10 they would be expected to have a RPI of 34.8, but if they're 22-8, they would be expected to have a RPI of 21.1. Obviously no one knows what is going to happen.

[Bill Marsh]

They absolutely are projecting records and what the RPI would look like with those records. What they are showing is the average projection from 10,000 sims. They're saying if St John's finishes 20-10 they would be expected to have a RPI of 34.8, but if they're 22-8, they would be expected to have a RPI of 21.1. Obviously no one knows what is going to happen.

Okay, Steve. They're "projecting" but they're not predicting. You've been treating them like they're predictions. They're not. It's a statistical technique to obtain a more accurate read on how they rate right now, not an attempt to say how they'll finish months down the road.

[Bill Marsh]

The Big East teams continue to move up on RPI Forecast with 5 in the top 30, 7 in the top 45, and 8 in the top 100. Here's the latest:

BIG EAST

8. Villanova
22. Xavier
23. St. John's
25. Butler
29. Seton Hall
36. Georgetown
45. Providence
98. Marquette
124. Creighton
248. DePaul

CONFERENCES

1. Big XII
2. Big East
3. Big Ten
4. ACC
5. SEC
6. Pac-12
7. A10
8. American
9. West Coast
10. Mountain West
11. Missouri Valley
12. MAC
13. Ivy League

[FriarJ]

This is forecast, where can you get the current RPI?

[stever20]

This is forecast, where can you get the current RPI?

my favorite place is www.warrennolan.com updates after each game.

[dmac80]

This is forecast, where can you get the current RPI?

Here you are:
http://bit.ly/1BfqdvF

[Bill Marsh]

This is forecast, where can you get the current RPI?

Same site, http://www.rpiforecast.com, also has the regular RPI. Or dial their RPI site directly, http://www.live-rpi.com Here's how it has the Big East teams ranked:

7. Villanova
16. St. John's
22. Seton Hall
27. Providence
33. Georgetown
34. Butler
56. Xavier
109. Marquette
126. Creighton
270. DePaul

The other option is http://www.realtimerpi.com

[robinreed]

It is interesting to see the similarity between the RPI FORECAST and the major RPI sites (i.e. ESPN and REAL TIME RPI.) For all the arguments concerning the relative accuracy of the various RPI's it seems they are essentially the same. I still don't like Lunardi on principle but I must admit these 3 rankings are convincing.

RPI FORECAST

Expected RPI: 2
Current RPI: 2

7. Villanova
16. St. John's
22. Seton Hall
27. Providence
33. Georgetown
34. Butler
56. Xavier
109. Marquette
126. Creighton
270. DePaul
==================================================================================
REAL TIME
Men's Basketball - Big East (2014-2015)

Conf. RPI Rank: 2 Conf. SOS Rank: 3

Only games against Division I opponents are counted.
Last updated - Mon Dec 29 12:23:59 PST 2014
View Power Ratings View Real Time RPIsvip
RPI Rk Big East Conf All RPI SOS Rk SOS
Up 1 From Last Week 7 Villanova 0-0 12-0 0.6694 50 0.5591
Up 13 From Last WeekUp 13 From Last Week 16 St. John's 0-0 10-1 0.6292 48 0.5599
Up 4 From Last Week 22 Seton Hall 0-0 10-2 0.6194 91 0.5360
Up 20 From Last WeekUp 20 From Last Week 27 Providence 0-0 10-3 0.6153 29 0.5755
Up 22 From Last WeekUp 22 From Last Week 34 Georgetown 0-0 8-3 0.6003 13 0.5988
Up 28 From Last WeekUp 28 From Last Week 36 Butler 0-0 10-3 0.5997 67 0.5512
Up 22 From Last WeekUp 22 From Last Week 53 Xavier 0-0 9-3 0.5861 84 0.5423
Down 22 From Last WeekDown 22 From Last Week 104 Marquette 0-0 8-4 0.5439 88 0.5386
Up 14 From Last WeekUp 14 From Last Week 125 Creighton 0-0 9-4 0.5292 190 0.4899
Down 52 From Last WeekDown 52 From Last Week 270 DePaul 0-0 6-7 0.4295 294 0.4440

===================================================================================
ESPN

2014-15 RPI
RK (RPI) TEAM RPI D1 W-L SOS NCRP NCSS CFRP CFSS 1-25 26-50 51-100 L12 LRPI OFFQ DEFQ ASM
1 (7) Villanova .6694 12-0 65 35 66 98 288 1-0 2-0 2-0 12-0 13 13.3 11.0 24.4
2 (12) St. John's .6362 10-1 88 44 89 96 149 0-1 0-0 4-0 10-1 4 4.6 16.3 20.9
3 (23) Providence .6171 10-3 29 91 29 104 125 0-1 0-0 6-0 9-3 16 6.8 9.8 16.6
4 (25) Seton Hall .6156 10-2 135 53 142 89 175 1-2 0-0 3-0 10-2 72 7.0 10.5 17.5
5 (31) Georgetown .6060 8-3 15 6 19 19 4 0-2 1-1 2-0 8-3 21 11.4 6.2 17.6
6 (35) Butler .6016 10-3 74 3 111 15 3 1-0 1-1 0-1 9-3 47 5.5 15.7 21.2
7 (54) Xavier .5815 9-3 126 85 131 90 342 0-0 1-0 3-2 9-3 125 17.3 2.8 20.1
8 (100) Marquette .5445 8-4 114 165 116 92 226 0-1 1-0 1-2 8-4 38 6.3 7.2 13.5
9 (113) Creighton .5367 9-4 196 136 200 84 262 0-0 1-0 1-3 8-4 95 7.6 5.5 13.1
10 (265) DePaul .4384 6-7 305 239 308 77 85 0-1 1-0 0-2 5-7 264 10.7 -5.5 5.2

[robinreed]

KENPOM RANKINGS
BIG EAST HAS 4 IN TOP 30. NOVA 6, SJU 17, XU 28, G-TOWN 29

Rank Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck Pyth OppO OppD Pyth
1 Kentucky SEC 13-0 .9810 115.7 5 82.1 1 64.1 273 +.028 135 .5881 76 102.0 68 98.9 108 .5881 82
2 Virginia ACC 12-0 .9698 115.8 4 85.7 4 59.6 348 +.044 109 .5502 115 100.2 174 98.5 93 .5502 122
3 Duke ACC 11-0 .9654 119.5 1 89.4 15 68.0 80 +.106 29 .5417 127 101.3 114 99.8 176 .5417 132
4 Wisconsin B10 12-1 .9571 116.0 3 88.5 8 61.9 330 +.010 169 .6007 64 101.7 86 98.1 67 .6007 68
5 Gonzaga WCC 13-1 .9440 115.5 6 90.3 21 65.4 216 +.037 119 .6536 29 103.1 28 97.5 46 .6076 60
6 Villanova BE 12-0 .9418 114.1 10 89.6 16 67.1 117 +.048 103 .5230 158 100.1 184 99.3 134 .5230 162
7 Louisville ACC 12-1 .9416 105.1 70 82.5 2 68.7 59 +.058 88 .4882 210 100.1 182 100.5 233 .4882 213
8 Arizona P12 12-1 .9165 109.4 27 88.8 10 68.8 56 +.021 150 .5045 184 99.9 193 99.8 171 .5045 192
9 North Carolina ACC 9-3 .9130 110.0 20 89.7 17 72.0 12 -.046 274 .6811 18 103.1 27 96.5 15 .6811 19
10 Texas B12 11-2 .9021 107.4 39 88.5 7 64.7 243 -.003 200 .5160 169 99.7 210 99.1 125 .5160 176
11 Oklahoma B12 8-3 .9004 107.3 40 88.6 9 71.0 18 -.099 313 .6034 61 102.5 52 98.8 104 .6034 63
12 Wichita St. MVC 10-2 .8906 112.1 14 93.4 50 62.1 325 -.001 193 .6299 43 101.1 127 96.5 16 .6299 45
13 Florida SEC 7-4 .8901 106.2 55 88.5 6 62.5 316 -.115 323 .5339 139 100.7 153 99.5 158 .5339 145
14 VCU A10 10-3 .8891 111.9 15 93.4 49 68.4 73 +.083 52 .7081 12 105.0 10 97.2 36 .7081 13
15 West Virginia B12 12-1 .8868 108.2 35 90.5 22 69.2 46 -.013 213 .4613 250 99.6 222 100.9 253 .4613 249
16 Kansas B12 9-2 .8856 110.7 18 92.7 41 66.6 154 +.217 4 .7773 5 105.7 8 94.8 6 .7773 5
17 St. John's BE 11-1 .8840 101.8 137 85.3 3 67.0 125 -.029 249 .4430 272 99.9 198 101.9 299 .4430 270
18 Iowa St. B12 9-1 .8821 114.2 7 95.9 84 71.2 17 +.004 181 .4700 236 100.3 170 101.4 277 .4700 238
19 Baylor B12 10-1 .8807 109.9 22 92.3 36 62.7 312 +.057 89 .5112 175 99.6 219 99.2 127 .5112 183
20 Utah P12 9-2 .8790 105.9 58 89.2 13 64.8 235 -.016 217 .5132 174 100.1 185 99.6 166 .5132 181
21 Ohio St. B10 11-3 .8754 110.9 17 93.6 53 68.9 53 -.081 301 .3834 322 97.2 325 101.3 269 .3575 331
22 Michigan St. B10 9-4 .8709 108.8 29 92.2 34 67.1 119 -.120 326 .5148 173 101.7 82 101.2 265 .5148 180
23 Notre Dame ACC 12-1 .8708 117.2 2 99.3 149 64.6 249 -.029 250 .2550 349 94.5 350 103.7 342 .2419 349
24 Maryland B10 12-1 .8664 110.2 19 93.6 54 65.7 196 +.053 93 .4463 268 100.1 183 102.0 305 .4463 267
25 Northern Iowa MVC 11-1 .8649 109.6 25 93.2 48 60.1 347 +.001 189 .5225 159 100.7 147 99.9 189 .5225 164
26 Oklahoma St. B12 9-2 .8627 106.8 47 91.0 23 67.9 81 +.026 136 .4746 229 97.6 315 98.4 85 .4746 232
27 Minnesota B10 11-2 .8543 108.5 33 93.0 45 71.9 13 -.019 224 .4199 288 96.7 333 99.4 149 .4199 286
28 Xavier BE 9-3 .8438 112.5 13 97.2 103 68.5 68 -.138 335 .5177 167 99.8 201 99.2 126 .5177 174
29 Georgetown BE 8-3 .8430 109.7 24 94.8 65 66.6 150 -.024 241 .5815 86 102.4 56 99.5 155 .5815 93
30 San Diego St. MWC 10-3 .8430 100.5 162 86.8 5 62.7 313 +.025 138 .5922 70 101.2 124 97.9 60 .5922 75

POTENTIAL MEMBERS (IN THE EYES OF SOME)
GONZAGA 5
WICHITA 12
VCU 14