Conference realignment discussion - v. 2015

[BEX]

Hadn't realized that UD fans were not among the 112.4 million who watched the Super Bowl on Fox SPORTS for political reasons. Learn something everyday.

Others with long term contracts: NFL,MLB,Nascar, ACC, Big 12, PAC 12, Conference USA, USGA, Soccer, World Cup, NHRA, Monster Jam, Rugby.

[GoldenWarrior11]

St. Bonaventure? The program that has been to NCAA tournament a total of six times, whose last Sweet 16 was almost 50 years ago, and - whose hypothetical accepted membership into the Big East - would bring not only the smallest endowment and athletic budget but also the smallest enrollment and alumni base?



Realignment talk really does bring out the illogical and nonsensical.

We aren't expanding anytime soon. If, by some rare happenstance where the Presidents, Fox and Val say that we are, it certainly wouldn't be with St. Bonaventure (no disrespect to the Bonnies, but it just isn't happening).

[Jet915]

St. Bonaventure? The program that has been to NCAA tournament a total of six times, whose last Sweet 16 was almost 50 years ago, and - whose hypothetical accepted membership into the Big East - would bring not only the smallest endowment and athletic budget but also the smallest enrollment and alumni base?



Realignment talk really does bring out the illogical and nonsensical.

We aren't expanding anytime soon. If, by some rare happenstance where the Presidents, Fox and Val say that we are, it certainly wouldn't be with St. Bonaventure (no disrespect to the Bonnies, but it just isn't happening).

Yeah, but they OWN the Rochester and Buffalo market and the Big East needs some bottom feeders!

[marquette]

There are plenty of reasons why Bona will not be invited.

First of all, their own alumni are very concerned about the long term sustainability of the university. It might not be open in 20 years and $4 million in tv revenue can't fix that. As an illustration look no further than their recent addition of seats in front of the student section to increase revenue. That was really their big advantage, the students basically on the court with

Second, at $2.5 million Bona's would have far and away the smallest basketball budget in the BE. Even if they put the entirety of the $4 million, which there's no way they would, they would still be behind most BE schools.

Third, their facilities would be far and away the worst in the BE. Their arena is just over half the size of our smallest current member. Part of being a big time conference is having schools that look big time. Even at max attendance they would bring down our average.

Fourth, they are less than half the size of our current smallest member.

As far as location is concerned, they are an hour and half from Buffalo, two hours from Rochester, and five hours from Albany. You can say that they will bring the tv eyeballs, but I doubt they help recruiting or that anyone would make the long drive to watch in person. People in seats are important to perception.

I can't fault you for pushing your team, but I just don't see how it happens.

[trephin]

JPSchmack has admitted multiple times that the probability of St Bonaventure being invited to the Big East is infinitesimal. His belief that the Bonnies with the aid of Big East membership would capture hearts and minds from buffalo to rochester as well as the value of increased probability of additional NCAA bids at this current time for the conference can be doubted.

No one, however, has disproved the logic of his idea - namely that

1) by adding a school(s) to the bottom of the conference
2) that schedules and wins OOC to manipulate RPI
3) would significantly improve the NCAA tournament resumes of the teams above them
4) creating a high probability of reducing the "bubble" teams and increasing the "lock" teams
5) thus earning potentially a significant amount of money for the conference and per team

The conference distribution of NCAA payouts has not been stated as of yet.

There is a max number of schools that can be added before seeing diminished returns.

Secondarily, he and sheg have proposed a 13 school schedule to compensate losing the 10 school round robin.

[stever20]

JPSchmack has admitted multiple times that the probability of St Bonaventure being invited to the Big East is infinitesimal. His belief that the Bonnies with the aid of Big East membership would capture hearts and minds from buffalo to rochester as well as the value of increased probability of additional NCAA bids at this current time for the conference can be doubted.

No one, however, has disproved the logic of his idea - namely that

1) by adding a school(s) to the bottom of the conference
2) that schedules and wins OOC to manipulate RPI
3) would significantly improve the NCAA tournament resumes of the teams above them
4) creating a high probability of reducing the "bubble" teams and increasing the "lock" teams
5) thus earning potentially a significant amount of money for the conference and per team

The conference distribution of NCAA payouts has not been stated as of yet.

There is a max number of schools that can be added before seeing diminished returns.

Secondarily, he and sheg have proposed a 13 school schedule to compensate losing the 10 school round robin.

We saw it last week in the AAC. UConn beat Houston and saw their RPI jump up like 17 spots. Houston was 10-2 OOC with the #336 OOC schedule. Cincy was the same thing after they beat Houston.

1 thing kind of funny though- it's almost better to get in the tourney as a bubble team vs getting in safely- normally if you get in as a bubble team you are in as a 10 or 11 seed. If you get in safely you're more of a 8-9-10 seed. Getting far in the tourney is actually EASIER as a 10/11 seed than it is as a 8/9 seed

[Bluejay]

JPSchmack has admitted multiple times that the probability of St Bonaventure being invited to the Big East is infinitesimal. His belief that the Bonnies with the aid of Big East membership would capture hearts and minds from buffalo to rochester as well as the value of increased probability of additional NCAA bids at this current time for the conference can be doubted.

No one, however, has disproved the logic of his idea - namely that

1) by adding a school(s) to the bottom of the conference
2) that schedules and wins OOC to manipulate RPI
3) would significantly improve the NCAA tournament resumes of the teams above them
4) creating a high probability of reducing the "bubble" teams and increasing the "lock" teams
5) thus earning potentially a significant amount of money for the conference and per team

Here's the thing though - even if you buy into this whole idea and easily dismiss the national mocking that would come along with adding perennial cellar dwellers, it still leaves several schools that would be a better fit than Bonas under that criteria. For example, if adding crappy teams is the solution, we could simply add SLU and be better off than we would be in adding Bonas.

I will say this - the "add us because we suck" is the most unique marketing angle I've seen since our former conference member, Drake, came out with a "Drake is D+" campaign.

[dakphonics]

5 year Pipe-Dream:
1. Larry Brown retires in 2018 at the age of 77 and SMU falls back into relative obscurity.

2. Notre Dame extends its TV contract another 10 years. ACC realizes it's a 100 year plan to add Notre Dame as a 16th member in football, and then makes a pre-emptive move that brings West Virginia back to the East Coast from the Big12, a move that re-establishes the continuity of the ACC footprint and brings non-football roster to 16 teams. It also is a move that leaves all the Keystone pieces of the BigXII in tact so it doesn't cause any major shifts in the college football landscape. The move shocks the hell out of UCONN's administration. Boston College wins again! The Big10 and the SEC un-phased are content to stay at 14.

3. The Big12 brings in Cincinnati to keep the roster at 10. By now they've established a conference championship with 10 schools per NCAAs new rules, and are comfortable at 10. Memphis and UCONN are now sealed off from the P5 in what is basically Conference USA with a group of middling FBS rejects that have no hope of ever making a playoff, even if they expand it to 8 teams. Basketball future is even more bleak for the conference. UCONN and Memphis are both major basketball schools, playing big-time basketball in good markets with big-time basketball budgets, hosting Tulane and East Carolina. They decide they can schedule just as well in football as an independent. And they accept an invite from the Big East for all other sponsored sports.

The New, New Big East:
Butler
Conneticut
Creighton
DePaul
Georgetown
Marquette
Memphis
Providence
Saint Johns
Seton Hall
Xaiver
Villanova

[SCS]

I think there is a much higher chance that St. Bonaventure folds as an institution than getting an invitation to the Big East.

[gtmoBlue]

JP has a good case for expansion to 12 or 13. Adding middle/bottom teams (who will be required to schedule up in OOC) floats 1 or more current mid pack BE teams into the dance.

If 5 bids is the norm with a 10 team config and real data has historically shown 6-7 bids with a 12 team config, the conf should give serious consideration to such an idea. As stated earlier unless a 10 team conf is routinely sending 7-8 teams dancing they are leaving good NCAA Tourney monies on the table for the other conferences. 1 additional team (250K x 6...$1.5M) 2 teams (500K/$3M) even if they don't win a game. That's free dollars folks and those figures will rise to 300K/team by 2020. Why leave money on the table?

EXAMPLES only(none of the teams listed have current viability):

Add 3 Teams - 1 top, 1 mid, 1 btm
Zags or Duke (top)
Dayton or Vandy(Middle)
Bonnies or Billikens (Bottom)


3 Teams - 1 top, 2 btm
UConn
Billikens and Richmond


2 Teams - 1 top, 1 btm
Zags
SLU

2 Teams - 2 btm
SLU and SBU

All would be required as part of entrance to radically upgrade their OOC shedules (top tier teams already do so, not sure what UD or Vandy does), so the mid and bottom entry improves their ooc and RPI to required levels. If the middle is competitive they may dance, if not they along with the bottom tier bump position 6-8 up into dancing range.

...A rising tide lifts all ships. JP's proposal has merit. Should be passed to Stu Jackson and others at the league office.